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Capt_morgan72 t1_ixgp3r2 wrote

Reply to comment by PMzyox in TSMC Racing to 1nm, Investing $32 Billion for Fab: Report by brohymn80

We’re not. This one Dutch company is. Funny the title says racing. ASML is so far past everyone else it’s not even fair.

Pretty much any one making anything smaller than 10nm chips is using Dutch technology. That’s why them not signing on to the sanctions on China are such a huge deal. China is about 8-10 years behind Taiwan in chip technology while having access to ASML tech.

If they are sanctioned of that tech it will further extend the west technology superiority by a margin of 5-10 more or even more years seeing as 1nm is a gunna be a thing.

Edit: To add to this the US at the moment if deprived of Taiwan would be infinitely further behind as we have almost no domestic production of chips and instead rely on South Korea taiwan and japan for near 100% of our chip production. But once again. Using Dutch tech.

Edit: ASML

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Exist50 t1_ixgq37s wrote

ASML is not a fab. They make one piece of equipment that fabs use. It's a very important piece, sure, but that's like calling a wheat farmer a baker.

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RayseBraize t1_ixgqvr8 wrote

As someone who is currently on site at a fab surround by ASML and 5 other tools from various manufacturers, this gave me a good laugh

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VictorVogel t1_ixgycu2 wrote

> a very important piece

It is the only piece that just doesn't have any competition at close to the same level.

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Exist50 t1_ixhtrwp wrote

Not the only if you go further up the chain. But regardless, the lithography machine does not make a node alone.

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Capt_morgan72 t1_ixgrklj wrote

No they are the ones making fab possible is what I meant. Much like the farmer.

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Exist50 t1_ixhtbux wrote

They are one of several necessary suppliers for a cutting edge fab.

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erosram t1_ixi7zko wrote

Well some pieces are harder to recreate than others

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JimMarch t1_ixhqcta wrote

Those Taiwanese chip plants are the reason the United States Navy had a lot of others are going to go all in protecting Taiwan if China gets jumpy.

Any Chinese invasion is likely to take out the chip plants which sets the world into it 5 to 10 year recession, China included. And if China does take the chip plants intact and is able to operate them without the expats working in them, or captures them and forces them to work, China then has a springboard for unlimited economic warfare against pretty much anybody due to their dominant chip Monopoly at that point.

Those chip plants are protecting Taiwan. And they're way smart enough to know it.

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Exist50 t1_ixiaci6 wrote

You pretty much only hear this on Reddit.

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JimMarch t1_ixib02v wrote

You think I'm wrong?

US policy is to be unclear on whether or not we would back Taiwan in a fight with China if China attacks. If the US population understood that any China attack would require a US response due to how critical Taiwan is to the world economy via those chip plants, it would change the voters perception of US foreign policy.

For some reason this isn't being talked about on the mainstream media. It might be part of an effort to prevent a Chinese attack? I have no idea. But something damn weird is going on.

The importance of those Taiwanese chip fabs to the world economy is absolutely obvious to anybody paying attention.

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Exist50 t1_ixigd9q wrote

From its geographic location alone, the US has had a strategic interest in Taiwan since long before TSMC became the dominant foundry. Nor is TSMC's dominance in that area assured. Not even the most hawkish of pundits seem to think China could realistically invade Taiwan for at least a decade, and that's just considering the logistic feasibility. A decade is an eternity in tech, and TSMC is not so far ahead of Samsung or Intel to be unassailable.

Obviously, yes, if TSMC were to be razed, it would have very significant global economic affects. But people act like it would set the world back 15 years, which is just absurd.

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JimMarch t1_ixigjaq wrote

Not 15 years, no. But five at least.

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Stroomschok t1_ixhh182 wrote

>China is about 8-10 years behind Taiwan in chip technology while having access to ASML tech.

Only their DUV-machines. ASML isn't selling their more advanced EUV-machines to China. Without those, the year gap becomes a lot bigger. I've seen estimates that it would take China 10 years to get into EUV themselves but considering how much EUV isn't just a technological achiement but also one in exceptional management that enabled it, it will take China probably a lot longer to emulate.

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Exist50 t1_ixia8z8 wrote

ASML's CEO himself said he expects it would take China about a decade to replace them.

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Stroomschok t1_ixitdyu wrote

Peter Wennink a typical modest Dutchman :)

Also he said 15 years. But pretty sure he was still low-balling it in that interview. Read up on why ASML succeeded in EUV while Canon for instance did not. Getting the technology is only part of puzzle and some of those other required pieces are quite difficult for China due to cultural differences and the increasing international isolation.

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