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Stroomschok t1_ixhh182 wrote

Reply to comment by Capt_morgan72 in TSMC Racing to 1nm, Investing $32 Billion for Fab: Report by brohymn80

>China is about 8-10 years behind Taiwan in chip technology while having access to ASML tech.

Only their DUV-machines. ASML isn't selling their more advanced EUV-machines to China. Without those, the year gap becomes a lot bigger. I've seen estimates that it would take China 10 years to get into EUV themselves but considering how much EUV isn't just a technological achiement but also one in exceptional management that enabled it, it will take China probably a lot longer to emulate.

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Exist50 t1_ixia8z8 wrote

ASML's CEO himself said he expects it would take China about a decade to replace them.

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Stroomschok t1_ixitdyu wrote

Peter Wennink a typical modest Dutchman :)

Also he said 15 years. But pretty sure he was still low-balling it in that interview. Read up on why ASML succeeded in EUV while Canon for instance did not. Getting the technology is only part of puzzle and some of those other required pieces are quite difficult for China due to cultural differences and the increasing international isolation.

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