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ctoph t1_iwtv9js wrote

Reply to comment by nkrgovic in The Only Way the U.S. Can Win the Tech War with China by Vailhem

The technology to make relatively advanced chips basically comes from a few western companies. Even the generations that China can make themselves thry can't make the machines required for the lithography. Western companies that want to be in the American market (or who's gov would side with America if their was a dispute) have to choose for tsmc a Taiwanese company its pretty easy and it's not that hard for the Dutch company that makes the leading edge lithography stuff either. So if the us pushes it can cut China off from the equipment and expertise they need for modern chips.

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nkrgovic t1_iwtwio7 wrote

That much I understand, if you stop ASML exporting to China (which is, as you've said a company based in the Nederlans), you stop China from having advanced industry - and are setting them back probably at least a decade. Developing EUV lithography is an incredibly hard process. Now, mind you, preventing them to do upgrades, to what they might have a contractual obligation, is a big deal. You're asking them to take a law suit, and the US has, AFAIK, no means to force a company from NL to take a huge loss.

I'm interested in how will this impact the rest of the world. Are the factories in China used to the rest of the world? Will this impact the global economy in any way? Also, what happens to stuff made in China? If Apple is making an iPad in China, does it have to stop because M2 is an advanced chip? What about Razer and laptops with GTX 3080? Again, will it impact global industry?

Finally, on a theoretical note, I still don't understand how do you prevent export of algorithms....

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gizamo t1_iwvor2g wrote

The US CHIPS Act is getting companies to build fabs in the US. Those fabs will be mass producing chips starting in ~2024-2025. Until then, reduced output of Chinese chips would definitely affect the economy, particularly for industries that use lower-end chips (e.g. automobiles). Restrictions on manufacturing/assembly of devices in China would hurt more industries in the US, but most of that is negligible. If China were to attack Taiwan, that would tank the US economy probably worse than the great recession, but not as bad as the great depression. It would also probably start WWIII, and at that point, theoreticals go out the window. Literally no one knows what would happen at that point.

Exporting an algorithm means to share it outside the country of its origin.

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kopeezie t1_iwtw8el wrote

Also to add to technology is quality and yield. Anyone can splash some photo resist on a wafer. But to do it over and over again to the same uniform 10nm thickness across the wafer for 10,000 wafers per month is mind boggling. We joked at Amat that the only thing being more massed produced than switches on this planet was biological cells.

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ctoph t1_iwtwqas wrote

The optics and EUV are truly crazy. I saw a video where they were saying the flatness of mirrors they use in the lithography machines are something like if the surface of the earth only varied like a millimeters in its topology (number might be wrong but it was crazy flat)

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dax2001 t1_iwu43ne wrote

That would be the most idiot thing to do.

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MasterpieceBrave420 t1_iwvrheq wrote

How is Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company a "western" company.

All the bullshit eurocentrisim get's old real quick.

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ctoph t1_iwvzoub wrote

The technology to make relatively advanced chips basically comes from a few western companies.

This statement refers not to tsmc but to ASML and their partner the zeiss group. ASML is a dutch company and is the only company that can supply lithography machines that employ EUV which is required for the current leading edge being created by Samsung and TSMC. Zeiss group is a a German company and a partner of ASML that supplies their optical system. These two companies are especially important because they are (I believe) the only companies with the ability to produce the technology (EUV and related optical systems) needed to produce 5nm and below chips. TSMC and Samsung use these devices and develop the methodology to manufacture the chips but regardless of any USA foreign policy they would never give there trade secrets related to leading edge processes to China (or any country/external org for that matter). So yea it is western European companies that make the technology to produce the chips.

All the self righteous sanctimonious idiots who project their prejudices onto strangers on the internet to feel superior gets old real quick.

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MasterpieceBrave420 t1_iwvzu1h wrote

Naw, I'm pretty sure I got it right the first time.

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ctoph t1_iwwh7ho wrote

We are several comments down on a comment that wasn't popular on a thread that wasn't that popular in the first place. There is no one to impress. We both know what the truth is. While I am quite certain you won't admit you are wrong, I hope in the future you will at least consider giving people the benefit of the doubt and try to make the internet a slightly friendlier place.

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MasterpieceBrave420 t1_iwwhr5u wrote

I hope in the future you are not naïve enough to give people on reddit the benefit of the doubt.

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ctoph t1_iwwih85 wrote

If I'm right I avoid a negative interaction where I find out on the end that I was the jerk. If I'm wrong, my comment wouldn't have changed anything anyway. It's not naivete, it's cost benefit analysis 😉.

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MasterpieceBrave420 t1_iwwjytl wrote

You values you place on internet socializing are wildly skewing your analysis.

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ctoph t1_iwwkbb8 wrote

I'm starting yo think you just want to have the last word.

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