gizamo t1_iwvl1iy wrote on November 18, 2022 at 6:02 PM

Reply to comment by nova9001 in The Only Way the U.S. Can Win the Tech War with China by Vailhem

No one is playing nice again until there are significant legally-binding agreements in place -- starting with theft of IP and trade secrets, and probably ending with more open markets. China probably won't actually agree to much that the US wants because their culture genuinely does not care about IP, and the government definitely won't give up their controlled monopolies of various industries or allow US competition there.

Marduk112 t1_iww75bh wrote on November 18, 2022 at 8:33 PM

The Trans-Pacific Partnership would have secured IP rights, forced a decoupling of state-owned Chinese enterprises within the TPP, and would have seen trade flows triple the size of NAFTA. Thanks to Trump and his idiot cohorts, we will have to start from scratch, or worse, work bilaterally with significantly less leverage.

The beauty of China's culture is that as long as their IP espionage benefits them, the CCP will continue to permit it and vice-versa.

As much as this needs to happen from the U.S.'s perspective, I'm not holding my breath because of the increasingly looming Taiwan issue and China will never come to the table from a position of weakness, which is the case right now and hence why they are feigning manners and benevolence for the time being. I also don't think there is a way to reach such an accord so long the Taiwan issue remains unresolved or without the economic inducement of access to an analogous massive free trade zone.

gizamo t1_iwwc8la wrote on November 18, 2022 at 9:08 PM

Yep. The amount of disinformation about TPP was wild.

China and Russia ramped up their social media operations to do everything possible to turn public sentiment against it.

Interestingly, if China doesn't negotiate now, their bargaining position will only get weaker as western semiconductor companies move operations out of China to diversify their risk. I work in semis, and the difficulty of operating in China -- or even just selling components into China -- has become absurd. But, even tho we and most of the industry has taken a financial hit, very few people seem upset at the US, and I doubt anyone is really surprised by the increasing restrictions. Personally, I don't see the US easing restrictions. So, either China comes to the table in good faith, or the decoupling in tech continues.