Submitted by Working-Office-7215 t3_11c5ecz in vermont
Hi folks- we lived in Vermont (upper valley) from 2006-2012. We are hoping to take the kids back next year to see our stomping grounds and just experience a real Vermont winter, ski at local mountains (not killington/Stowe), etc. (we live in Missouri, so it would all be new.) Are winters/snow really that inconsistent now? Like even compared to 10 yrs ago?
Good to hear!
Yes, definitely less snow or less consistent snow. We haven't had much snow this year, there was bare ground to be seen up until a few days ago when we got about 5" (in Central Vt anyway). The skiing hasn't been great all winter.
Snowfall totals are higher in the past 75 years then the prior 75 years. 35 of the past 50 years have seen above average snowfall. More than the prior 80 years. We have consistently had more snowfall than normal.
Sadly, there has been a noticeable change in the last 10 years. I moved to VT in 2011, and it's just not the same climate wise.
10 years is not a large sample size, and the sample of bad years is even less. 2018-19 was one of the snowiest winters ever in VT, 19-20 was fairly average. Since then, we've had 3 bad snow years in a row. After 3 years of bad snow in Tahoe in the mid 2010s, people thought that the Sierra would never get a good snow year again and then they have gone on to break several snowfall records in recent years.
6 of the last 10 years have had above average snowfall totals in Burlington? I’m not sure what your basing your opinion on, but historically we are getting more snow… really depends on your time period.
From 1892 - 1965 we had 0 years with snowfall totals of 100” or more, since then we’ve had 10.
The last 50 years have had 35 years with above average snowfall. The prior 50 years had 18 years above average. The preceding 30 years had 8 years above average snowfall (normalized would be 14).
Edit for source
According to NOAA the ten year period from 2011-2021 is the warmest on record in Vermont. Overall in the last 123 years the average temperature in Vermont has increased 3 degrees. With an increase in temperatures it is likely that we will see increases in extreme weather events including snowstorms. I agree that looking at the number of days with snow coverage on the ground is a better datapoint. The other one is ice in and out on ponds and lakes. While none of the this directly relates to the OP question, I certainly remember in my lifetime that most Presidents Day weekends you had reliable downhill and Nordic skiing, and I am doubtful that will be true in the near future.
Hahahahhaha, I provide a source to Govt data to answer a question and it gets downvoted by the collective because it doesn’t fit the hive mind think.
Yes.
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Contrary to popular belief, there has not been a statistically significant difference in the amount of snow received in Vermont in recent years. Here is the source. As you can see, some areas have received more snow, some areas less, and some are unchanged. People are suffering from a mirage created by the over saturation of climate change “predictions”. The narrative is simply not born out in the data. Towards the bottom of the link there is a summary of findings.
Right, but the issue isn't necessarily how much snowfall we've gotten, but how long it sticks around. Fat good a foot of snow does us if it melts the next day (which is exactly what happened earlier last month). In the source you provided, I don't notice anything pertaining to that. This is the first winter I can remember when nearly all our snow had melted by mid-January.
I mean 3-4 years ago we got snow in October and it stayed the entire winter 🤷🏼♂️. Often times we’ve had a green Christmas. It’s Vermont, the weather is weird.
The post was about snowfall. Also you’re not providing anything more than your own anecdote. Do you know of any data to back up what you’re claiming?
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https://www.weather.gov/btv/historicalSnow
We’ve had much more snowfall than in the past. This years been weird, but the overall trend has certainly been an INCREASE in snowfall.
💯
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You’ll never find figures for snowpack because it changes daily. Snowpack in March or snow pack in January… as I mentioned in a prior post, only a few years ago it snowed in Oct. and stayed the whole winter, sometimes we have a green Christmas. Vermont is known for having crazy weather, trying to read into any given winter or even 5winters is a fools errand.
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Are you going to average up daily snowpack for the past 100 years? It’d love to see that information, you should make a webpage with that data. I’ll edit my comment when you do ;)
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I never said anything about a daily record, in fact I said you wouldn’t find those figures BECAUSE it changes daily. If you wanted to look at annual snowpack (which is what it seemed you were wondering about) you’d need to average it out for every year you wanted to look at and aggregate that… But you take it however you want sunshine.
The idea that you would simultaneously receive more snowfall but have a lower snowpack makes no sense. This is proven by the simple fact that a melting snowpack would mean more days above 32F, but that also mean more precipitation falling as rain. That’s not what is happening
I’m not defensive at all. I’m just responding to you. But actually I do have data to back up what I said. I linked to it.
Just think about this for a second. If it was actually warmer and melting snow faster you would also expect more rain events and thus less snowfall. That’s not what we see. For the record climate change is real, but many of the narratives are not. Many are purely anecdotal- a mirage.
Not sure that /u/Generic_Commenter-X was actually trying to start an argument (neither am I disputing your point about snowfall), and I actually do agree (just in my personal experience) with their point about the actual snow base throughout the winter. To your point, do you have any data that supports temperature correlating directly to snowfall? There are lots of high pressure, super cold times when we get no snow. Also a lot of "warmer" days when we get dumped on with heavy, wet snow. I just find it interesting that you spin up your own narrative in the same breath that you're trying to debunk others' narratives.
Does temperature directly correlate to snowfall lol? Yes it has to be below 32F. No data needed
Objectively false... it can snow when it's above 32 degrees. Clearly you're just here to appear correct at everyone else's expense. What a dick.
I’m a dick for providing data that runs counter to your incorrect beliefs? Yes it’s possible to see snowflakes above freezing, but do you see a lot of accumulating snowfall above 32 that sticks around? You should tell the ski industry they would be thrilled to build a ski hill there. Still waiting on your data
What are my incorrect beliefs again? Just trying to figure out what you're arguing against. Now you're talking about snowfall vs snowfall that "sticks around"... seems like that was the whole point we were trying to make in the first place.
If the temperature is greater than 32 it rains and if it’s less than 32 it snows. So if it’s warm enough to melt the snow on the ground, any precipitation would fall as rain not snow. You would see more rain and less snow if their lower snowpack argument was true. The data that I provided as well as the link from u/headpen5724 shows increasing snowfall.
Love how if you bring data into a Reddit thread it gets you downvoted.. here’s an up vote
contrary-contrarian t1_ja1q1d4 wrote
Winters are definitely less consistent but there is still plenty of winter to be had. Late Jan- February is typically the winteriest time.
Sometimes we still get good early storms and good late storms, but overall there are more thaws and less consistent snow.
There's still time to enjoy!