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crypt0_sports t1_ja149y2 wrote

This is a prime example of someone shilling their bags by picking and choosing data based on what they want the outcome to be.

Fact remains: Credit card debt to savings ratio is the worst in recorded history.

You can only swipe so much for $40 Olive Garden plates and $15 Little Mac meals before you max out. People are simply refusing to cut back on spending, even at super inflated prices.

This is unsustainable.

It should also be noted that Gen X are just some of the parents of Gen Z & not the other way around.

Short term this refusal to stop spending will fuel earnings and the market overall. But even this analysis shows Gen Z & Millennial credit card debt defaults increasing at a rapid pace, even with student loan suspensions for what seems like an infinite amount of time.

They will more than likely stay suspended through the 2024 presidential election and if the Democrats win, through 2028.

If they don’t expect the moratorium to expire Dec of 2024 so the GOP can inherit a disaster of debt and be blamed for the inevitable crash.

Also people are normalizing $1500-$2500 rents.

That’s simply absurd & unsustainable as well.

Enjoy your short term pump in the market - but the reality will kick in at some point and number not always go up.

The only way to slow down consumer spending it seems is for 1 point increases constantly. The Feds actions aren’t helping clearly - just prolonging the inevitable.

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cl0wn_w0rld t1_ja3tkwv wrote

fed needs to pull of the bandaid, startinng with 75bps in March. get the real rate positive. 6% here we come!

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crypt0_sports t1_ja3tz9u wrote

Exactly let’s start getting these homes under 300k averages so the real estate and greedy fuckers thinking they will retire off rent at 45 can go and get promptly fucked.

See you behind the dumpster 🫡

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joefunk76 t1_ja4901d wrote

As much as I would love for you to be right, you seem to presume that aren’t a million more greedy fuckers hoping to retire at 45 who would scoop up all those homes at lower prices.

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Ok-Grapefruit1284 t1_ja4g8ec wrote

In my area, investment firms are buying up cheaper houses and flipping them into high priced rentals or reselling them for 100k more than they were previously listed for. Sure there are a few independent flippers but mostly it’s companies. We don’t stand a chance.

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crypt0_sports t1_ja4e7cz wrote

You may be right there but only do many people can leverage that kind of additional debt

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SohndesRheins t1_ja6bzl6 wrote

Man that would be awesome. I'm 15 years away from 45, and my parents are in their 60s and are chronic alcoholics. If they both die in 15 years then I'll definitely liquidate their assets, pay off my house, and buy a rental property or two and retire by age 45. By all means, please drop housing prices.

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rocketseeker t1_ja4za4g wrote

75bps being considered pulling the bandaid feels like a hurricane screaming “GET TO THE FKN BASEMENT U REGARD” on our faces until it inevitably destroys all our houses and mattresses stuffed with money

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Jerund t1_ja3vsgd wrote

1500-2500 rent is cheap depending where you are for a household with 2 working people…

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crypt0_sports t1_ja3xhd1 wrote

The only place that is semi reasonable is in a large metro city where avg incomes for 1 person are near $80-100k. There’s no reason rent should be anywhere near that in the woods , in the middle of bumfuck, or a rural area 2 plus hours out of a major city for an apartment.

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DogeAutist t1_ja5ho3d wrote

Supply and demand amigo. Arbitrary numbers mean nothing. Rental increases are sustained until a better option presents itself for the rentors. Three families in a 3 bedroom two bath home, kids sleeping in closets. This shit is normal. I suspect it will continue as I don't see interest rates dropping anytime soon, and talk of the housing crash has spooked alot of new construction.

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crypt0_sports t1_ja5i877 wrote

Well if they lose their jobs all bets are off the table.

Based on your logic then you’ll have 12 people and 3 generations living in a 2 br 1 bath house all while hundreds of thousands of homes sit empty while an investor refuses to take anything less than $2500 a month on a property they overpaid by 2x ?

If so then you’ll have armed security patrolling these neighborhoods trying to run off squatters.

Make it make sense.

P.s. new manufactured homes are now starting at 49k where I am and they were 79k less than a year ago.

So they apparently know something.

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DogeAutist t1_ja5k25u wrote

Everyone in the household works. It's not a theory. I see it daily. And if one or two lose job the family gets replaced or the throw another in the living room.

Nowhere to put a manufactured homes (where I'm at anyways)and even then you have to rent the land and that goes up annually as well.

Also, most these people work in a variation of service industry. They will always have work cleaning houses, taking care of children, fixing cars. And that work at this price point is just not possible if they move 1 hour outside of the city in a manufactured home.

I'm in Cali, so I know this ain't the norm, but it's what I'm seeing here. Think about it, how is it different than 4 college kids renting a 3 bedroom and two splitting the master.

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crypt0_sports t1_ja5lmqy wrote

Oh you’re in Cali I’m in Central Texas, different planets.

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_ziros_ t1_ja4wnu6 wrote

Where did you find the data that the credit card debt to savings ratio is the worst in history? I’m trying to further support my bear/short thesis and trying to collect as much data as I can. It’d be really helpful if you can share the link with me and I can save it for later. Thank you much appreciated

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garycow t1_ja4zydn wrote

he made it up - savings are still high

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36Taylor36 t1_ja5ls70 wrote

Is it me or does CC debt look that its on the same level as late 2019.

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crypt0_sports t1_ja5lx14 wrote

The savings rates were way higher compared to now and the interest rates were still nothing.

Two large variables.

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garycow t1_ja4zsai wrote

couldn't happen o a better party

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crypt0_sports t1_ja508vz wrote

They’d do the same thing if it was the other way around trust that

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jonsnuuuuuu t1_ja1ikj6 wrote

Hey man. Just came to say I genuinely don’t give a shit about any of this because I’m personally unaffected. I’ll continue to invest in my favorite stocks and index funds because I can and I don’t care what the market does. Thanks for this write up though I hope you make money

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crypt0_sports t1_ja1iwsd wrote

From your point of view, as long as spending continues to happen at record pace you’ll be a winner.

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jonsnuuuuuu t1_ja1jl3r wrote

Sort of. More like as long as I don’t need the money and have my high paying job I don’t give a shit what the market is doing for the next 30 years

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crypt0_sports t1_ja1k7fb wrote

At least you’re honest lol

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jonsnuuuuuu t1_ja1kl1t wrote

I know this is Wall Street bets but from the comments it feels like people are playing with money they need and not money they don’t. So yeah I find it weird when people on this sub are freaking out and trying to predict the SPY. like just pick up or down and place your bet. Otherwise you shouldn’t be here

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crypt0_sports t1_ja1kvzi wrote

Yupppp they most definitely are! That’s dangerous degeneracy. Better off playing roulette some of them.

You should see crypto during a bull run it goes from mania to despair in a matter of hours sometimes

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