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jcodes57 t1_je8983h wrote

Yeah, no shit.

Anybody who’s actually listened to Powell speak would know rates aren’t coming down til late 2024 and yet the fed futures market keeps pricing in cuts in 2023…

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SaltyShawarma t1_je8au1o wrote

Clown market

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realmastodon2 t1_jeb4y6v wrote

Investors are addicted to low rates. Right now investors are like a cheap meth whore who will do anything for a fix.

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[deleted] t1_je90zt9 wrote

[removed]

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[deleted] t1_je91d4o wrote

[removed]

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starostise t1_je9267e wrote

So, is the Fed allowed to bring employment down as collateral to their decisions ?

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Coolzx t1_je92fkx wrote

Yes, to a point if it means bring inflation down. Since inflation is their main concern.

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Decent-Berry4681 t1_je8grtc wrote

Your 100% right and whats scary is the only way rate cuts will happen is due to a recession/economic slowdown. Therefore the market is pricing in a recession because they expect rate cuts….markets make great sense!

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recession_is_coming t1_je8m03v wrote

> Therefore the market is pricing in a recession because they expect rate cuts

And the markets are not going down because a recession is being priced in?

Have we finally achieved a bullish recession?

yayyyyy

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Wander21 t1_je9157z wrote

Better yet market will down significantly before recession so basically we are rallying for a crash yohooooooooo

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Malamonga1 t1_jebb3gl wrote

bond market's pricing in a recession. Stock market doesn't care until CEOs start saying recessions are coming in their earnings call. Bond market and stock market don't always agree.

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MekkiNoYusha t1_jecq67r wrote

What if the CEO keeps giving unreachable guidance every time. And pump the stock.

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Malamonga1 t1_jecs79y wrote

if they keep giving unreachable guidance and the company misses the guidance, they'll get fired eventually, unless if you're Elon Musk, then you can never get fired.

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relentlessoldman t1_je8n1lx wrote

How does the rip this year and futures equal pricing in a recession? 😑

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DerpyMcOptions t1_jefjqzs wrote

Big $ has ways to make markets pump in order to offload before the unwind begins.

Remember BLK is one of the biggest dealers in UST's, they're trying to sell T bills for cash so they can use their discount to buy the call options off of ppl they sell the T bills to.

BLK has a vested interest in yelling that rates should go higher until the fed has to capitulate on rate caused problems. At which time they're holding all those calls... BLK was shorting T bills through puts, don't think they won't also buy calls on them as well.

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too_old_to_be_clever t1_jeaozfh wrote

Tell the oil companies to price in a recssion and lower their prices to keep demand high.

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CheesecakeNo5404 t1_jec2x1p wrote

Demand for gas is pretty inelastic in the short term. Even in 2008 it took a while for gas prices to come down and people to start buying geo metros and other cars that got good gas mileage.

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ItsDijital t1_je8d7jk wrote

If the market crashes and unemployment jumps, the fed will drop rates.

Whats funny is that institutions are signalling this, the bond market is signalling this, but the stock market is still going "lol nah, we good"

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PrettyDislikeMachine t1_je9xj2m wrote

Inflation adjusted, the market is down 20% YoY. I'd say that's pricing-in a mild recession.

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DontWantToUseYourApp t1_je8c9g1 wrote

Because the recession is going to force them to cut sooner. Either way, both outcomes are bearish.

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RedditsFullofShit t1_jearrlg wrote

No see this is a buy the rumor sell the news situation.

You buy now until they cut. When they do, you sell cuz it means the crash is on its way or they wouldn’t be cutting

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DN-BBY t1_je8dkc6 wrote

But stocks go down prior to a recession and we aren't going down. So no recession.

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Themailhag t1_je8ej19 wrote

Thats because the fed isnt usually stupid enough to turn the printers back on for a weekend, only to continue tightening. Basically they wanted to break the middle class and they broke the banks instead. Or more likely found another way to steal from us along the way. End result, were green right now only because of the cash injection

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SlayZomb1 t1_je8mk16 wrote

Oh my God I found YOU here! <3

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DN-BBY t1_je9ivv7 wrote

😅😅 Have to hang out with other smoothbrained individuals

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Wander21 t1_je91oz0 wrote

Nonono, we are rallying for a crash boi

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skilliard7 t1_je8o9rv wrote

Powell also said that inflation is transitory and that the fed wouldn't hike rates until 2023, but he broke that promise and caused SVB to fail as a result. He has said he will make decisions based on the data that comes in, but right not they're targeting maintaining rates until 2024.

If there are more signs of inflation declining and/or unemployment increasing, rates can absolutely come down

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Christianman01 t1_je9jay5 wrote

Maybe he's lying to the benefit of himself and his rich friends, and people are pricing that in. I mean he knew QE would cause inflation but lied through his teeth about that.

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CoolFirefighter930 t1_je8wpln wrote

Rates should always be at least 5to 6 %. Inflation will fix itself . When things get to expensive people will not buy . There inflation is fixed. He can't do shit about the current situation, this all about Digital currency.

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OptimusCannabis t1_jea0oi1 wrote

This doesnt fix inflation. Notice how the record high savings account numbers for americans was directly followed by inflation?

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Wander21 t1_je90y4f wrote

Well... I think wallstreet did the same thing mid last year and didn't work well for them

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Junnowhoitis t1_je95lk1 wrote

They will pivot late this year or early next year. They care way more about the banks than anything

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norgnA t1_je92vsk wrote

Yeah like when he called inflation transitory and it will pass. The fed can and will pivot on a dime if it serves their interest

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WeimarRepublicTwo t1_je9o5e7 wrote

You mean the market thinks that the guy who has been lying for 2 years “the inflation is transitory” is still lying?

I’m shocked.

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vegaseller t1_jeeuxbj wrote

he was telling people he would not raise rates until 2024 back in 2021 when he cut rates to zero due to covid, this is why the banks got into trouble, because they believed him. He is led by long rates like a dog on a leash.

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lightshelter t1_jed09ho wrote

And if they do come down in ‘23, it’s because shit is so fucking bad that they have no choice.

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pmaurant t1_jebp0dp wrote

I heard pause but no cuts. I heard 2% target no matter what.

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grkboyfk t1_jednpgx wrote

That's the futures market and investors calling the Fed's bluff by putting money on the line.

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Apprehensive_Box_671 t1_je946d6 wrote

Rate cuts will come within 1 year. Will come back to this comment. Jpow has no idea that the economy will get quite bad in H2 2023. Just like he had no idea about inflation.

!Remindmeofthis in 1 year

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green9206 t1_je9qhx7 wrote

Late 2023 you mean. You are biggest regard if you think rates wkll not be cut until end of 2024.

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