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jcodes57 t1_je8983h wrote

Yeah, no shit.

Anybody who’s actually listened to Powell speak would know rates aren’t coming down til late 2024 and yet the fed futures market keeps pricing in cuts in 2023…

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SaltyShawarma t1_je8au1o wrote

Clown market

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realmastodon2 t1_jeb4y6v wrote

Investors are addicted to low rates. Right now investors are like a cheap meth whore who will do anything for a fix.

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[deleted] t1_je90zt9 wrote

[removed]

−13

[deleted] t1_je91d4o wrote

[removed]

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starostise t1_je9267e wrote

So, is the Fed allowed to bring employment down as collateral to their decisions ?

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Coolzx t1_je92fkx wrote

Yes, to a point if it means bring inflation down. Since inflation is their main concern.

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Decent-Berry4681 t1_je8grtc wrote

Your 100% right and whats scary is the only way rate cuts will happen is due to a recession/economic slowdown. Therefore the market is pricing in a recession because they expect rate cuts….markets make great sense!

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recession_is_coming t1_je8m03v wrote

> Therefore the market is pricing in a recession because they expect rate cuts

And the markets are not going down because a recession is being priced in?

Have we finally achieved a bullish recession?

yayyyyy

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Wander21 t1_je9157z wrote

Better yet market will down significantly before recession so basically we are rallying for a crash yohooooooooo

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Malamonga1 t1_jebb3gl wrote

bond market's pricing in a recession. Stock market doesn't care until CEOs start saying recessions are coming in their earnings call. Bond market and stock market don't always agree.

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MekkiNoYusha t1_jecq67r wrote

What if the CEO keeps giving unreachable guidance every time. And pump the stock.

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Malamonga1 t1_jecs79y wrote

if they keep giving unreachable guidance and the company misses the guidance, they'll get fired eventually, unless if you're Elon Musk, then you can never get fired.

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relentlessoldman t1_je8n1lx wrote

How does the rip this year and futures equal pricing in a recession? 😑

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DerpyMcOptions t1_jefjqzs wrote

Big $ has ways to make markets pump in order to offload before the unwind begins.

Remember BLK is one of the biggest dealers in UST's, they're trying to sell T bills for cash so they can use their discount to buy the call options off of ppl they sell the T bills to.

BLK has a vested interest in yelling that rates should go higher until the fed has to capitulate on rate caused problems. At which time they're holding all those calls... BLK was shorting T bills through puts, don't think they won't also buy calls on them as well.

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too_old_to_be_clever t1_jeaozfh wrote

Tell the oil companies to price in a recssion and lower their prices to keep demand high.

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CheesecakeNo5404 t1_jec2x1p wrote

Demand for gas is pretty inelastic in the short term. Even in 2008 it took a while for gas prices to come down and people to start buying geo metros and other cars that got good gas mileage.

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ItsDijital t1_je8d7jk wrote

If the market crashes and unemployment jumps, the fed will drop rates.

Whats funny is that institutions are signalling this, the bond market is signalling this, but the stock market is still going "lol nah, we good"

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PrettyDislikeMachine t1_je9xj2m wrote

Inflation adjusted, the market is down 20% YoY. I'd say that's pricing-in a mild recession.

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DontWantToUseYourApp t1_je8c9g1 wrote

Because the recession is going to force them to cut sooner. Either way, both outcomes are bearish.

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RedditsFullofShit t1_jearrlg wrote

No see this is a buy the rumor sell the news situation.

You buy now until they cut. When they do, you sell cuz it means the crash is on its way or they wouldn’t be cutting

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DN-BBY t1_je8dkc6 wrote

But stocks go down prior to a recession and we aren't going down. So no recession.

−17

Themailhag t1_je8ej19 wrote

Thats because the fed isnt usually stupid enough to turn the printers back on for a weekend, only to continue tightening. Basically they wanted to break the middle class and they broke the banks instead. Or more likely found another way to steal from us along the way. End result, were green right now only because of the cash injection

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SlayZomb1 t1_je8mk16 wrote

Oh my God I found YOU here! <3

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DN-BBY t1_je9ivv7 wrote

😅😅 Have to hang out with other smoothbrained individuals

2

Wander21 t1_je91oz0 wrote

Nonono, we are rallying for a crash boi

0

skilliard7 t1_je8o9rv wrote

Powell also said that inflation is transitory and that the fed wouldn't hike rates until 2023, but he broke that promise and caused SVB to fail as a result. He has said he will make decisions based on the data that comes in, but right not they're targeting maintaining rates until 2024.

If there are more signs of inflation declining and/or unemployment increasing, rates can absolutely come down

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Christianman01 t1_je9jay5 wrote

Maybe he's lying to the benefit of himself and his rich friends, and people are pricing that in. I mean he knew QE would cause inflation but lied through his teeth about that.

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CoolFirefighter930 t1_je8wpln wrote

Rates should always be at least 5to 6 %. Inflation will fix itself . When things get to expensive people will not buy . There inflation is fixed. He can't do shit about the current situation, this all about Digital currency.

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OptimusCannabis t1_jea0oi1 wrote

This doesnt fix inflation. Notice how the record high savings account numbers for americans was directly followed by inflation?

0

Wander21 t1_je90y4f wrote

Well... I think wallstreet did the same thing mid last year and didn't work well for them

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Junnowhoitis t1_je95lk1 wrote

They will pivot late this year or early next year. They care way more about the banks than anything

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norgnA t1_je92vsk wrote

Yeah like when he called inflation transitory and it will pass. The fed can and will pivot on a dime if it serves their interest

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WeimarRepublicTwo t1_je9o5e7 wrote

You mean the market thinks that the guy who has been lying for 2 years “the inflation is transitory” is still lying?

I’m shocked.

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vegaseller t1_jeeuxbj wrote

he was telling people he would not raise rates until 2024 back in 2021 when he cut rates to zero due to covid, this is why the banks got into trouble, because they believed him. He is led by long rates like a dog on a leash.

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lightshelter t1_jed09ho wrote

And if they do come down in ‘23, it’s because shit is so fucking bad that they have no choice.

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pmaurant t1_jebp0dp wrote

I heard pause but no cuts. I heard 2% target no matter what.

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grkboyfk t1_jednpgx wrote

That's the futures market and investors calling the Fed's bluff by putting money on the line.

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Apprehensive_Box_671 t1_je946d6 wrote

Rate cuts will come within 1 year. Will come back to this comment. Jpow has no idea that the economy will get quite bad in H2 2023. Just like he had no idea about inflation.

!Remindmeofthis in 1 year

0

green9206 t1_je9qhx7 wrote

Late 2023 you mean. You are biggest regard if you think rates wkll not be cut until end of 2024.

0

no_name_no_face t1_je82dnw wrote

Blackrock: "Don't start buying yet. We're still accumulating."

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Keyboard_smashgood t1_je83wrh wrote

The true drop happens when the fed starts cutting rates history tells us. So they can accumulate away

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erednay t1_je8fxha wrote

You've reversed cause and effect, like many others on this sub. Interest rates drop because of monetary policies enacted to counter a recession. Not that a recession happens because interest rates drop.

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relentlessoldman t1_je8n4ko wrote

This is backwards, they drop rates quickly when things implode and go to shit

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Wander21 t1_je91agn wrote

Almost the same thing tho

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Malamonga1 t1_jebbazt wrote

not the same. One means stocks will drop before they cut rate, the other means it will drop after they cut rate.

3

mfopp t1_je89kiw wrote

That are telling the truth for once. It’s still to early. Don’t want retailers to start the pump/real bull before the fed doesn’t raise/ think about cutting back .

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Boredy0 t1_jebakf9 wrote

I for one never trust BlackRock, even if they're right they're up to something.

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EarningsPal t1_je9pvwf wrote

Bet things rio higher and crash to a level higher than today’s price in over a year.

2

thawingSumTendies t1_je82a2m wrote

Low interest rates only helps people and corporations spend money that they don’t have.

Growth should come organically and not be fuelled by debt.

Interest rates should remain high even if inflation subsides.

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TedMerTed t1_je86n8i wrote

The Fed will cut rates only when they realize they have done too much. How will this be good for the stock market?

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H0lland0ats t1_je8gyfh wrote

This will come as a big surprise to you but the Feds mandate isn't "pump the stock market with cheap debt so WSB user TedMerTed can get free money".

The Feds only real job is manage inflation and employment from a macroeconomic level. Everything else should be coming from congress.

The vast majority of the "growth" the past decade has been finacialization. Companies have borrowed like never before in history to buy back shares, and take advantage of QE to its max. Very few companies are truly innovating and the ones that are, are doing it so incredibly inefficiently.

Bring back the evolutionary pressure of high rates. Last time they actually started making decent American cars again!

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[deleted] t1_je8j8t0 wrote

[deleted]

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GreedyGuard2660 t1_je8s9np wrote

I don't know for a fact, but i suspect this is why IPOs often take a massive shit shortly after. Seed/angels are like the shoddy house flippers of the so called innovation world. This is why the GameStop thing got the police baton so quickly. They don't want it a lot of visibility on the extent to which human civilization is a pump and dump scheme

I once had the opportunity to meet a bunch of actual angel investors. They obviously weren't unintelligent, but they seemed like dunces. They barely, barely cared about the actual pitches. They cared about "we are a blabla bullshit buzzword company, here is an financial modeling excel template up & right." It was fucking eye opening.

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rjsheine t1_je8pslg wrote

Good for the stock market? Lmao that’s not the Fed’s job

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TedMerTed t1_jea6c3m wrote

The comment was towards people that think a fed pivot is a good thing. Not a comment as to the purpose of the Fed.

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Duckboy_Flaccidpus t1_jeectdn wrote

Isn't a terminal rate of 5.5% peanuts compared to what it's been historically the last 50 years? I see this as a stabalizing rate, no more free money circulating and should weed out non-robust businesses.

1

SteveG199 t1_je8x8ya wrote

Furthermore, Interest rates should just be negotiated by markets. But now humans are back on the wheel. And you can't complain they turn that weel to steer away from the saw that would saw off their own branch. The things take the turn any fiat system in history took and you can't blame anybody in charge for not doing the right thing, because that would mean a ruined career. Anybody who does that on stages like this is just instantly replaced by somebody pretending again that they did nothing wrong and people return to standing ovations. The US constitution basically had it right but the system found it's way around it and now you pay. Inb4 murica im from europe

0

[deleted] t1_je8jgp6 wrote

[deleted]

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GatorsILike t1_je8kw7q wrote

They were wrong about transitory inflation for a year. Why aren’t they wrong now?

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relentlessoldman t1_je8niwz wrote

Because inflation is still not going to magically go away in a few months.

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Unkechaug t1_jecb43e wrote

If it does, it’s because the economy has tanked.

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wattatime t1_je98kfn wrote

Because the fed doesn’t control inflation. They try to manage and predict it. They however can control fed funds rate.

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TheMcBrizzle t1_jeadfha wrote

Oh shit, you mean JPow didn't have a button that he pushes to increase or decrease inflation in his desk...?

Fuck me, I have to call my broker and find me the closest Wendy's dumpster.

3

highrocko t1_je8v0i1 wrote

My question is, why is a goliath financial entity like Blackrock looking out for the little guys? Surely they say this as a sign of good will with no ulterior motive.

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kuuui t1_je8y5h3 wrote

To Blackrock, everyone is little. You think small retails traders are the one pricing in rates cut? No, man. Even the so-called fucking smart money (institutions) are begging for a rate cut.

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lalaluu666 t1_je8wlkv wrote

Probably reverse psychology. They’re actually telling us the truth but know most people wont believe them and do the opposite.

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RamseyHatesMe t1_je80juy wrote

> “We think the Fed could only deliver the rate cuts priced in by markets if a more serious credit crunch took hold and caused an even deeper recession than we expect,” BlackRock strategists wrote.

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Dozekar t1_jebde3g wrote

> We think the Fed could only deliver the rate cuts priced in by markets if a more serious credit crunch took hold and caused an even deeper recession than we expect

This also would be admitting that we're hitting recession scenarios while at the same time inflation is mooning. This would be close to a worst possible scenario.

1

SpaceTabs t1_je8fi05 wrote

Why on earth would anyone think rates are going down? This has been a freebie for the fed. Normally it would have taken five years to inch back up to normal rates.

If the speed limit is lowered on a road in your area, it usually doesn't go back up again.

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Billionairess t1_je8g2cp wrote

Why are people in here still talking about rate cut in 2023? Pause for sure, but cut no. 🤷‍♀️🤦‍♀️

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BourboneAFCV t1_je82fr8 wrote

Burkina Faso's government is more reliable than Blackrock

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MajorFerret3225 t1_je8cxp1 wrote

Jokes on blackrock this time, we keep buying so they keep raising rates.....

Ill explain..

1 it decreases prices more so i can buy more lower with my paycheck. 2 my parents think its falling so if i inverse them im covered on both fronts. 3. Plus if my parents win even bigger i win eventually.

Or do you think im just chucking in money into the economy before every fed meeting for no reason? Freaking. Think.

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reneh01 t1_je8qyh8 wrote

I think you’re regardedly buying puts and calls on the same stock.

3

Tiny_Interaction3704 t1_je87kxz wrote

Who the hell cares? Is been a year with the same news. I am buying and I'm buying.

Is Valhalla or the Gates of Hades.

7

wdean13 t1_je8clp2 wrote

but will they pause?--alot of inflation is being driven but greed and lack of health competition. not giant piles of cash laying around.

4

Klindg t1_je8ouff wrote

Yep, the one thing that nobody is allowed to even bring up. It’s always the Feds fault, the people have been fed that line for decades, all while profits have hit Pluto lol

4

seab1010 t1_je93b06 wrote

The same blackrock who a few years ago who led the fossil fuels divestment charge, only later to buy back the same stocks at double the price whilst claiming gas was an essential part of the energy transition. Clown show indeed…

Also worth nothing the bond market was previously pricing in aggressive hikes well before the fed woke up to their idiocy.

The market will be correct again….

Recession is imminent, most inflation is moderating quickly and rate cuts are coming….

4

PharmDinvestor t1_je9gw8j wrote

Which investors are betting on rate cut ? Can blackrock point them out ?

JPow has repeatedly said not rate cuts , but Blackrock is out there floating false information in an attempt to pump the market to unload their bad bets

4

BigPlayCrypto t1_je8hcmq wrote

Fck it I’m putting some money up! Warnings means greatness I heard

2

c4chokes t1_je8l3ea wrote

Correct.. Fed is out for blood, and they won’t stop for nothing

2

spac420 t1_je8p2t6 wrote

mmhmm....i just bet on probabilities

2

becool773 t1_je8rtc4 wrote

My fellow regards, eli5 market crash coming or not?

2

HotdogsArePate t1_je8v3p7 wrote

Who is betting on this? Like wtf are they talking about? No one thinks this. The fed has directly said they are not doing this...

2

joevan55645 t1_je91plh wrote

Anyone just a little bit concerned that a lot of you guys seem to be in complete agreement on how this is going to play out? 🦥

2

BigBobDudes t1_je93qne wrote

This market is wacky town right now.

2

bambush331 t1_je94bxc wrote

I don’t know if agreeing with blackrock is me becoming an experienced trader or just a trader about to get rekt

2

XNoob_SmokeX t1_je99wl1 wrote

Wells that's it then. I'd black Rock says it then you should believe it.

2

Grey___Goo_MH t1_je9al08 wrote

FED is waging a monetary war against its own citizens and it’s enemies abroad it doesn’t care about anything besides the bankers

2

Dragon_the_Calamity t1_je9bdbh wrote

I’m waiting for blood. Let things fall so I can scoop up and get to where I need to go faster

2

Solid_Shape2055 t1_je9btqa wrote

Of course not, the Fed wants all their helicopter money back! And yes the bleeding tax, house, and comidity buyers are going to bleed for a hurting amount of time.

2

locoturco t1_je9ep4i wrote

i don't care, as long as the train is on the move, i will stay there

2

Vivalyrian t1_je9f8hh wrote

My SOFR 2024 puts enjoy these articles.

2

backruptcyfomo t1_je9hdyk wrote

Rate not going down till shit break simple as that

2

minedigger t1_je9k4dk wrote

The fed starts cutting rates when it’s ethical for them to hold equities again - of course it’s going to happen quietly in the middle of the night and you may never notice.

2

Pretty-Two3904 t1_je9mhjl wrote

As someone whose worked at BlackRock… listen lol the Fink has deep ties to the political system so I’m sure they know what’s already going to happen

2

Bottom_Wobbles t1_je9og1j wrote

So…basically BlackRock is not positioned for rate cuts and wants to buy your positions.

2

carpitown t1_je9r8gp wrote

I'm starting to think the Market is right. First off, I'm totally convinced the Fed board members are totally clueless about what they're doing. They have have proven to be 100% reactionary. So, to me, their words hold no value.

Absolutely everyone had spent like drunken sailors during the low interest rate years. We're beginning to see the initial problems forming from interest rate changes. Since the Fed has no clue with what's going on, they'll follow the growing panic by dropping rates. The market has this correct.

2

wardogone11 t1_je9wbd4 wrote

Anything that black rock doesn't like, I do.

2

j4k3b t1_jea5k6e wrote

Why would they warn investors?

2

VisualMod t1_je801qt wrote

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1

gridflash t1_jeaa4jw wrote

There are a lot of government officials (Yellen, etc) and analysts jawboning this market...

..trying to make it to the 2024 election without a legendary crash...

1

Adventurous-Ad-7890 t1_jeaclc1 wrote

Isn't Blackstone the same people telling people not to put their money from the CRE funds?

1

AllinaceofDiamonds t1_jeaheei wrote

After recent banking and payment app calls I wouldn't put much stock in Blackrock.

1

diver_nick2008 t1_jeb28uf wrote

Have they looked at the size of us non financial debt. This thing is a house of cards. They'll cut all right. I'd go so far as to say restart QE.

1

Explod3 t1_jeb47gp wrote

The issue is that this is an argument between whats good for us and whats better for politics. Politics will always win. Trust

1

ASaneDude t1_jecdywd wrote

These effers are losing their ass on private real estate…

1

AlwaysRighteous t1_jecf88j wrote

I'm going to bet against the hedge fund that lost $1.7Trillion.

The Fed is going to cut rates. Reasons:

  • BlackRock says they won't
  • Banks that have parked money in 'safe' government securities will go underwater thanks to the Fed's rate hikes knocking down their 'safe' government bonds' coupon price(s)
1