Submitted by Stock_Man69420 t3_z668qd in wallstreetbets
SPY is approaching a key resistance. With bearish divergences visable. What are everyones thoughts?
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Comments
xxPATCHxBAKKxx t1_ixzkyv0 wrote
One more push then sideways for a week then dump
Stock_Man69420 OP t1_ixzlbor wrote
Yea Im gonna wait for my strategy to confirm it and then load up on Puts
nutthu99er t1_ixzqtfv wrote
Watch 408/410 and size in for a month out
igotherb t1_ixzsjb4 wrote
Id say powell speech might be the dump on wed
BETmyhoeonTesla t1_ixzvx1d wrote
Seems like it will, seems like a small little push then dump. I bought some Friday so I should’ve waited
JollibeeNo1Customr69 t1_ixzvyae wrote
I find bearish divergences work better when the price is equal to or higher than the previous peak on a lower RSI, assuming the previous peak triggered an Overbought condition on the RSI. That shows there wasn't a much strength behind the new high and is due to come back down again, much like looking at volume. Vice versa for a bullish divergence (you can see this example of bullish divergence when looking at the bottom of the price action and the lower end of the RSI between "2022" and "March", just before the SPY ripped back up to the trendline again- prices went lower/stayed equal, but the RSI was making higher lows on each dip down).
pork-head t1_ixzwiqn wrote
Flat-Solution8156 t1_iy031z0 wrote
If it drops, Id say you should have played puts. Yet on the other hand, if it goes up, then you should have played calls.
Habooboo5 t1_iy0372p wrote
He seemed pretty relaxed in that recording that was posted earlier, he may actually be less bearish than last month
Reallyhightweets t1_iy05f5o wrote
Calls on your wife if you follow this advice.
WetEconomics t1_iy07kch wrote
Yes
_Hard_Candy_ t1_iy0bd5g wrote
this.
well keep going up since literally everyone is bearish waiting for this trendline to hold.
liquefire81 t1_iy0cj5d wrote
Itll do the opposite of what ill do.
dickmidget t1_iy0cp1q wrote
Do MM’s really make THAT much $$$ off of retail buying calls & puts?
It doesn’t seem like much money in comparison to large institutional buyers when it comes to options trading.
I could be wrong but I am genuinely curious.
BeniSpaghetti t1_iy0dclj wrote
When I reach for the PUT button, my sphincter now gapes as a reflex.
It's called Powell's Anus, and from a clinical research perspective yields very similar to Pavlov's Dogs.
All that to say, be careful...
Mintleaf007 t1_iy0eo0j wrote
it pumps until fed meeting then does what jpow wants.
Old_Researcher4071 t1_iy0eykd wrote
Your so counterintuitive
Old_Researcher4071 t1_iy0ezrl wrote
Who’s deez?
Sensitive-Cold-4956 t1_iy0h15h wrote
I ask this myself. They say 99% of retail is 100% long. Most retail is down way more than the SPY this year.
You ever try to explain to your college educated friends how calls and puts work? They look at you like you’re speaking Arabic. Maybe they can understand calls… but puts? What percentage of retail could buy puts even if they wanted to? Are they even approved through their broker?
I think the more realistic explanation here is that most of retail’s $ is in ETFs in their 401ks, in various longs, and cash. If SPY were to fall off of a cliff, I don’t think the single digit retail who are options approved and willing to press the Put button will matter all that much.
Also sounds like the perfect situation for institutions to take from retail with minimal resistance.
ErectoPeentrounus t1_iy0j131 wrote
grinch Monday. No more green.
dickmidget t1_iy0krg3 wrote
The people I’ve talked to do understand the difference between calls & puts, along with the investment criteria behind such moves. I must confess that I am still learning and trying to evolve in this crazy market.
imanuelize t1_iy0nfka wrote
Well said… I never thought of that
Stock_Man69420 OP t1_iy0nnuf wrote
i honestly don’t know what that means 💀
[deleted] t1_iy0t3fz wrote
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Jar-JarBinkz t1_iy0x3co wrote
Mods, pin this comment plz.
MaidenDrone t1_iy0xu25 wrote
Seems like a good time for a fed pump! Then dump.
Severe-Advertising-9 t1_iy0zum5 wrote
Pump, retest, 🚀🚀🚀
lordinov t1_iy11vm6 wrote
This means we go up
Both-Read8417 t1_iy13ju7 wrote
I’m a regard. Spy will be at 400 by close tomorrow. How do I make money off my regarded prediction?
Sigz0 t1_iy13yde wrote
juffury3 t1_iy15lcl wrote
Some bears were also screaming for another downleg when we were approaching this trendline (which coincided with the 200 SMA) back in mid august when SPY was approaching 430. We were right.
This bear market rally has lasted for about 1.5 months. The last one lasted about 2 months (before we dove off the cliff and made a new low of 350). Bear markets are all about lower highs and lower lows.
Entering longs at the cusp of this bear market rally is just as dumb as opening shorts after making a new low and several consecutive red weeks.
TopStockJock t1_iy16q2q wrote
Leap calls
lovedumpme t1_iy16q7s wrote
I was eyeing shorting XLE. China locking down from riots and COVID going to free up lots of capacity.
juffury3 t1_iy16xok wrote
>market will go down when everyone gives up on shorting it
Define everyone? Is your grandma shorting SPY? Any of your siblings or friends? Whenever I tell my friends about put options, they look at me funny. Like I'm regarded or something.
WSB thinks they can speak for all retail and the MMs are constantly monitoring us because we're such an omnipresent force in the market. No, we're a bunch of self declared degenerate regards and nobody gives a shit about us.
brodosphotos t1_iy17faz wrote
I reckon it will do a false breakthrough first, killing most of y'alls puts
Loose_Mail_786 t1_iy19y33 wrote
I have a few 360p 12/6. 🤞🫶🥰
alanzo123 t1_iy1ckwg wrote
traders, everyone who isn’t managing billions
TNastyMcFaded t1_iy1cyh7 wrote
Soon. Still have to wait for everyone to buy puts that get smoked first.
zulufux999 t1_iy1dczo wrote
Short term <50 days seems bearish with SPY at RSI of 73 and VIX at 20, somewhat negative media sentiment, and energy still outpacing tech
Abject-Confidence-21 t1_iy1e8jz wrote
You’re*****
mindnode17 t1_iy1ee18 wrote
It’s a trap
Stock_Man69420 OP t1_iy1egj8 wrote
estacks t1_iy1eplx wrote
This is the realistic take. You have to be smart money to even know the existence of options.
https://ycharts.com/indicators/cboe_equity_put_call_ratio
Smart money is DCAing into bearish bets at a record ratio on every low IV day each week.
juffury3 t1_iy1f10y wrote
All I'm saying is that WSB is a shitty barometer to measure retail or trader sentiment. The majority of the posts here don't even show positions. Just some regard perma bear or bull karma farming.
Also, think about your average WSB redditor. More than likely he's an early to mid 20s guy who's a virgin to trading a bear market. Sure, he lived through 2008, but had no skin in the game. This applies to redditors over at r/stocks too. All they know is "stonks go up". In fact, a majority of WSB came in during 2020 during meme stock mania when trillions in stimulus were injected into the economy.
Boomer retail traders with the most $$$ in stonks don't hang out on reddit, lest of all WSB. Are they "trigger happy with put buying" too? Go ask your parents.
Commercial-Travel613 t1_iy1hacx wrote
Someone wants regards to buy puts… hmmm maybe calls tomorrow?
Sensitive-Cold-4956 t1_iy1hatv wrote
It’s like an easy layup in basketball, a man wide open down the field in American Football, or an empty net in soccer/hockey. Sure that’s easy for professionals, but most of us would miss.
What percentage of retail traders have ever bought a put? How many are approved, understand the Greeks, and are willing to go? I’d guess it’s insanely low.
I think most are going to baghold to the bottom and continue to DCA. I’m sure some will move some into cash. But this big measurable rush of retail buying puts, I just don’t see it.
And even those of us who are willing to buy these puts, a lot of us are getting scared bc it’s so obvious… this do the opposite of sentiment narrative, which I generally agree with. But if only a tiny percent of retail is actually going to make an active bet here, the act against sentiment argument loses some steam.
blahyaddayadda24 t1_iy1hmux wrote
Rule of three
Skinny_Mo t1_iy1iul8 wrote
Damn thats a little rough
Leebronjamess t1_iy1jnve wrote
In 2008 we saw the same and then the last rally didn’t quite reach the line before having the big drop. I think this next drop will be the third and final leg down however it will also be the longest and lowest drop of them all before hitting a bottom
PoorInvestRichGamble t1_iy1ksus wrote
I felt way better about my Puts when that guy posted SPY was going to 450 on Friday or something
Muro_ami_1 t1_iy1p68g wrote
Great analogy
laterbaker t1_iy1pnsl wrote
tomorrow spy hits 408
Stock_Man69420 OP t1_iy1pz3w wrote
I think that’s a joke
NetworkPhantom t1_iy1rh33 wrote
Thanks for that advice!
loreallovely t1_iy1rhk7 wrote
Looks like some credit spreads might be in order….
daveysauce t1_iy1ub6a wrote
For the first time in over 20 years we have retail shorts and puts at an all time high and insider trading at a minimum.
SPY will probably stay resilient till mid next year and may even recover up to 4200 level easily in the next few months.
All because big banks don’t want to let the average retail win. And also metrics for the economy are doing better than expected and we may have a Santa Claus rally on our hands.
bigload8769 t1_iy1vcis wrote
Can I DM you later if I need some good advice for important decisions?
quesoqueso t1_iy1vjl5 wrote
Shit I am doing both. DCA on my long positions while taking it in the ass and trying to offset some of it with puts at the same time. I'm long and short, so probably highly regarded.
Sour-Bitter-Confused t1_iy1wdjq wrote
Flordamang t1_iy20xmf wrote
Never fight the trend. Not because you will always be right, but because you will be right more than you will be wrong.
trashcanpandas t1_iy22ppr wrote
Posts like these are why SPY is going to continue rallying past 420
OffByOneErrorz t1_iy23wm6 wrote
Ah a master of reading the bones.
ever-right t1_iy26134 wrote
That's why I'm selling calls. Go ahead. Make the markets flat.
laglory t1_iy29jlx wrote
> market makers will farm premium like pigs at the feeder by making the market flat.
you realise that "making the market" refers to the process of simultaneous offering of both bid and ask? Market makers don't move the markets, they provide liquidity.
[deleted] t1_iy2a4wv wrote
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rentz_due t1_iy2bduo wrote
Michael burry is that you?
Human-Character4495 t1_iy2e603 wrote
Brilliant
Realistic_Housing631 t1_iy2ind4 wrote
A lot of people think that scraping the bottom of a barrel is the lowest one can go. They are wrong. You can lift the barrel and take a look at what’s underneath!
GhostFund1 t1_iy3bhi2 wrote
Puts on GRNDR
wutangfinancial88 t1_iy3bzcd wrote
It’s hit that trendline 3 times now. Which means it’ll blow past it and hit 450 the moment you buy puts. And by you I mean me.
No_Response_8465 t1_iy3e8ra wrote
Mid dated ours shouldn’t do you too badly, scale into them if you are going to
RedOctobrrr t1_iy3pkoq wrote
This is the pro guidance you degens need to listen to.
My puts were like 1.5mo out. They're now a few weeks out. Nearly worthless on this make-believe rally.
blutch14 t1_iy543ur wrote
You're looking for correlation where there is none, the market reacts off economic data and when we beat estimates this week we're heading to Uranus.
FartBurgerLard t1_iy7dou3 wrote
bUt MuH VIX sAYs iT WIlL Go dOWn Noew
VisualMod t1_ixzkb70 wrote
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