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NoobInvester018 t1_j67jjz4 wrote

100 BPS inbound imgimg

226

Pasdgrapd t1_j68q0bf wrote

Just as inflation is coming down China's re-opening will

24

StarGaurdianBard t1_j6bd48d wrote

This is the first time I've seen a repost bot repost a comment that only has 5 upvotes and somehow get 30+ despite not even making any sense because the members of WSB don't even question why the comment suddenly cuts off lmao.

https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/10n8nzz/25t_spending_potential_held_by_chinese_consumers/j685gut?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share&context=3

This sub continues to upvote bots despite constantly talking about bots/shills

13

Suspicious_Loads t1_j6iuzx4 wrote

China produces supplies so who knows what direction it goes. Maybe more expensive fuel and cheaper toys and electronics.

1

Stachemaster86 t1_j67idnh wrote

Wait till Singles Day if things don’t clear up post CNY

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Infamous_Sympathy_91 OP t1_j67ih09 wrote

What date? And what happens then?

9

Stachemaster86 t1_j67iz5f wrote

11/11. It’s their “Black Friday” on steroids with Prime Days added and it still beats both in a take of $130B. Baba made $85B during the last Singles Day. Obviously makes a lot of years sales for vendors and is a good indicator of spending habits.

39

lucidrage t1_j698ucl wrote

> it still beats both in a take of $130B. Baba made $85B during the last Singles Day

That just shows you how many singles there are in China! I bet $80B of that was from those buttplug vibrators on aliexpress!

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PeakFuckingValue t1_j69fgz8 wrote

Those....what?

7

apolloniatiger t1_j691nc3 wrote

I wish you can see what they are buying. My friends in China buys toilet paper for whole year during 11/11 event. They don’t have too much discretionary spending.

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iPigman t1_j69wesk wrote

A whole years worth?

Aww shit, here we go again.

3

GingerStank t1_j67z1pk wrote

What is the source of this data? Doubt intensifies as the picture doesn’t at all hint to how they got this data. I doubt anyone has this data but the CCP, making the data worthless as they obfuscate and manipulate data.

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KSRandom195 t1_j688xiw wrote

And I seem to remember protests at banks because they had lost their money. Surprising to hear there’s massive savings now after that.

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GingerStank t1_j689mg4 wrote

They’re the same people that said 8 people died from Covid last month while videos circulated online of bodies being stacked up in streets outside of morgues pouring out black smoke.

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ndvDogeDiamondHands t1_j68xqoc wrote

You remember correctly, but it was a number of regional banks, not national ones that smoked out local degens savings with high yeld promises... no one went to jail of course and the party members are arguably richer...

Then the CCP smoke out the stock market, and before that the developers literally evaporated trillions of bonds with little complete real estate to show for.

Now the OP is suggesting the party will disappear the rest of the proletariat savings...

What a nice place where to live it must be.

4

keepgrindingact t1_j67h84s wrote

Hello inflation good to see you

58

locri t1_j67kvj9 wrote

I don't think it quite works like that, they're paid in Yuan/renminbi.

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YodaCodar t1_j67lf3u wrote

Demand is demand.

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locri t1_j67m5s6 wrote

I'm 60% sure (I am not a real economist) it'll change the exchange rate of either currency and that has enough effect on the money supply to not necessarily cause inflation.

Grain of salt please.

I'm mostly confident because usually when something like this happens usually everyone actually benefits, the neoliberals cum everywhere at once and Kekkonen smiles down from the heavens.

5

cunth t1_j68az5v wrote

Cuban cigars have trippled in price over the last year and are still difficult to get largely thanks to a surge in Chinese demand. The sheer size of their middle class with discretionary income now is a force to be reckoned with.

If OP's data is true, it will undoubtedly affect demand for luxury goods at the least.

14

X_Danger t1_j68ntr4 wrote

Let's target some ads to these middle class individuals to get them investing into US stocks

And see how soon the excess turns to margin calls

1

cookielukas t1_j69dshy wrote

Bullish on seafood and exotic animals

45

ScipioAtTheGate t1_j6a6maz wrote

Frozen shrimp is where its at brah

3

joshzzz222 t1_j68i3qu wrote

FYI China already reopened fully for weeks

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Hascus t1_j69ux6w wrote

lol right? What is this graph saying

19

joshzzz222 t1_j6cz5ty wrote

Says nothing tbh, first if you look at the household debt, probably the same graph. Also, if you know Chinese, search the news about tons of people can’t withdraw their ¥ in the bank. Put all their money in the bank is average Chinese’s lifestyle.

1

forumhero666 t1_j68j15z wrote

Sure they just need to sneak pass the tanks guarding their money

38

Fabiba82 t1_j68l728 wrote

Inflation here we go again. Invest in eggs

35

VisualMod t1_j67gzvz wrote

That's a lot of money! I'm sure the people who have that kind of savings are doing very well. But it's not just about the money, it's also about being smart and intelligent. If you're not rich and don't seem to be getting any richer, then I'll probably insult you.

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20

nickname7788 t1_j68gs3g wrote

To put that into perspective - that's 1800$ per person, in the USA that number is ~14 500$ per person. We also have to have in mind that the majority have close to 0$ in the bank and the others have much more.

13

Legitimate-Plum7919 t1_j69itmn wrote

Am i the only one who sees 2.5 bln not trillion on that graph

−1

sinncab6 t1_j67jb52 wrote

Yeah now correlate that data with American household savings which has taken a nosedive the second we opened up due to over inflation and pent up consumer demand. It was 4 trillion at the end of 2020 it's now down around 500 billion.

So it'll be a short lived boom even assuming these figures are even right for China which I highly doubt since every financial figure from China has some layer of deception to it and this graph provides nothing for sources IE how much of that figure is really just the ultra rich and how much is actually the common man.

They'll have to deal with the same problems we dealt with and probably worse so since we were in an economic boomtime when savings values started to drop off a cliff in the US, the Chinese aren't going to have that advantage since their economy is tied at the hip to the west.

8

AutistGobbChopp t1_j67scn8 wrote

There are approx 1.5 billion Chinese people

So $1,666 spending potential per person

I think we'll be fine...

6

boblywobly11 t1_j68qfoh wrote

Only 500 million have cash to spend. The others are poor.

1

kaishinoske1 t1_j69afve wrote

Especially after that bail in to the banks those other people were a part of from that real estate fiasco not that long ago.

1

Shiba_98 t1_j693agm wrote

It’s not evenly distributed. A large part of Americans have less than $400 to cover emergencies but that’s outweighed by those who have plenty.

1

Betweenthelies13 t1_j685gut wrote

Just as inflation is coming down China's re-opening will cause a new wave of demand

6

Hacking_the_Gibson t1_j688zeb wrote

This will be offset by the increase in production.

Chinese consumers spend like $5T annually while Americans spend like $16T.

9

RockyattheTop t1_j68t2mb wrote

It’s not about the goods, it’s all about that sweet sweet oil baby. Only so much to go around and them manufacturing requires a lot of it. Add in a weakening dollar and oil prices surge. Oil prices going up means everything goes up. Inflation ain’t done fucking you yet, it was just taking a Gatorade break after fucking you for a long time.

7

Hacking_the_Gibson t1_j69jpmj wrote

China buys their oil from Russia at a deeply discounted rate.

I suspect that the oil impact will be minimal.

4

RockyattheTop t1_j69kkpk wrote

Doesn’t matter, it’s still the supply. Also there is a reason they were meeting with the Saudis recently. Now that being said if we go full recession it’s not going to matter as demand for oil will plummet. If you’re playing this play, important to have tight stop losses.

−1

Alternative-Paint-46 t1_j6bmuan wrote

It does matter. Countries that aren’t sanctioning Russia, are getting their oil from them cheap.

1

reliquid1220 t1_j6cvnc4 wrote

Yet oil price for the rest of the world is going up for the past month.

Op is talking about the supply/demand curves. Sanctions etc shifts the curves up or down but they have to meet somewhere. That juncture is going up in dollars.

1

Alternative-Paint-46 t1_j6cy96s wrote

From what I’m reading, it doesn’t appear to be going up for Russia. They’re still selling their oil for a large bargain.

“Russian oil traditionally sells at a discount to international benchmarks such as Brent. The discount, has widened since the imposition of sanctions and now stands at some $25-$30 per barrel to dated Brent.”

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/putin-says-oil-price-cap-will-not-create-problems-russian-budget-2023-01-11/

AND

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russian-oil-sold-india-below-price-cap-buyers-market-2022-12-14/

As winter sets in and demand for oil increases, the limited supply will increase prices worldwide, but it may not increase the price of Russias oil nearly as much.

1

kingbitchtits t1_j69cezh wrote

That's because our economy is 70 percent consumerism and 30 percent production.

Economical warfare, anyone?

1

BlindSquirrelCapital t1_j6a4dxv wrote

LVMH to the moon. Those Louis Vuitton purses will be flying off the shelves.

5

JammyTodgers t1_j680pl5 wrote

china reopening is intially an inflation driver, but once its supply lines are functioning again, it is long term disinflationary.

if the fed account for china reopening in their forward guidance they will eventually overshoot significantly imo.

3

onfire9123 t1_j692hf6 wrote

You know what the world needs?? More consumption.

3

disco-inferno_ t1_j69wqt6 wrote

I won’t buy BABA at $65 but I sure as hell will buy it at $120

3

Yf_lo t1_j693t4a wrote

Sources?

2

Regenten t1_j69ecb7 wrote

They have also put off things like buying property. The domestic economy is fuk rn.

2

freemcgee69420 t1_j6afaqz wrote

Lol what if the CCP told them to buy US made goods with those savings to create an inflation bomb here, with their savings bomb.

2

VisualMod t1_j67gzhl wrote

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1

Adventurous-Tiger600 t1_j68vedo wrote

It’s going to have to offset all of the write downs on their real estate…

1

Calm_Leek_1362 t1_j68zaed wrote

Are they not open yet? I thought they were done with COVID 0 policy and they were letting it spread now.

1

apolloniatiger t1_j690xnv wrote

Don’t count on that. China does not have safety net and hospital are expensive. Savings are for healthcare and retirement.

1

LavenderAutist t1_j6961ym wrote

That trillion could be spent to pay their mortgages

1

Siigmaa t1_j69bo25 wrote

Getting ready to buy some more YANG before the inevitable

1

Zueter t1_j69dvpx wrote

If it mirrors the rest of the world, expect supply chain disruption, shortages and inflation

1

Txgunlover55 t1_j69f91x wrote

So this is where all of Biden’s stimulus package went

1

UTletigre t1_j69gokl wrote

Different culture. Majority of their cars are bought in cash and they don’t like to finance. Their housing market went tits up. Studies have shown positive housing assets help drive spending up while opposite happens. Also they don’t know if they’re gonna go right back into quarantine and have no income.

1

Immediate-Cry1554 t1_j69mscu wrote

Curious how much money US owes China now? Trillion or billions??🙄

1

Crypto_Malik t1_j69qoqx wrote

Can a smooth brained person explain to me what I'm looking at?

1

cheekytikiroom t1_j69r8lx wrote

I can’t decide if this will create more inflation, or if open factories helps supply and will reduce inflation.

1

turboninja3011 t1_j69rdkn wrote

That s 2.5T to make by international corporations.

Bullish

1

helloWorld69696969 t1_j69vbkz wrote

Those people havent worked in literal years. What money do you think they have to spend

1

MrULTRALONG t1_j6a3722 wrote

On alcohol, hookers and gambling

1

Purple_Calico t1_j6a4pq9 wrote

Too bad the Chinese have been nationalizing people's savings to cover the Evergrande shindig...

1

usernumber1onreddit t1_j6a5ptt wrote

but ... but ... because of opening, they can also make more stuff .... right?!

1

TianObia t1_j6a611r wrote

Recession canceled.

1

lokitoth t1_j6ad9dj wrote

So... Supply Shock 2: Electric Boogaloo?

1

Maleficent_Public925 t1_j6aj7ry wrote

Population is very old. They are in saving for retirement mode, not consumption mode

1

devanator77 t1_j6al7pc wrote

Banks wouldn't release the savings to the people who put it in there in the first place.

1

Infinite-Bath657 t1_j6aptqi wrote

Lived in china for 5 years, man i have to say that your being fooled.

So many business went bust and all those zombie state companies and crazy invesments will tank china economy.

1

onetime344 t1_j6av6nt wrote

And 1.5t was hold in 2021... for uncertainty in chaina and world max they will spend its 500b and it will be probably not February, not to mention chaina banks not really willing to give your money for you to spend.

1

Big_Bullfrog_2642 t1_j6axi50 wrote

It clearly says billion (bn) on the chart… how the hell did you interpret that as trillion

1

Hideous_hyide t1_j6b2isa wrote

This must be after the culling that's going on. Must be based on that currency that expires when you don't use it

1

Mistbox t1_j6b7nji wrote

China is closed? Since when?

1

iyervikas81 t1_j6btfuz wrote

Time for BABA puts whenever such articles/posts start coming out. Looking for BABA to retrace to 90s by mid feb

1

NormalSecretary4505 t1_j6bxer1 wrote

So we’re just gonna forget how evergrande swindled a majority of the Chinese population?

1

BugTotal6212 t1_j6cm5e8 wrote

Wait a few weeks for the covid cases to explode.

1

Fabiba82 t1_j6djh8g wrote

Can't remember where I found a story where a mf invested in eggs option and had to buy like 1 million of them. I ment that story

1

YodaCodar t1_j67ldy7 wrote

Why is china playing hard to get? think it will rise my inflation?

0

screwdriverking t1_j69b4uu wrote

Emerging markets will be the shit for 2022

0

Lone_Wanderer357 t1_j6a6yur wrote

Yeah, just as there is a potential for 400 milion dead in china. And while that is a wild theory, no doubt, it shouldn!t be disregarded if you look on the videos from china, where people are administred IV bags in their cars in front of the hospitals.. and multiple bodies are being cremated at the same time, all day every day.

So yeah, this is a fantasy.

The truth is that we just don't know what the fuck happens with China, but I'm very confident that resurgence of spending and a rise of healthy chinese economic will not be one of those things.

0

Legitimate-Source-61 t1_j67kx4w wrote

Savings ..... that is those ghost cities that we've been hearing about? Well they are smart, we invest in NFTs.

−2