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Most_kinds_of_Dirt t1_jad59nr wrote

Reply to comment by tehruben in After violent weekend, D.C. homicides up 40 percent over last year by tehruben

Whether a number hits 200 or not is kind of a helpful metric, but it can be more informative to just look at the actual totals:

Category 1992 2002 2007 2012 2017 2022
Homicide 443 264 181 88 116 201
Sex Abuse 215 262 192 263 295 158
Assault w/ a dangerous weapon 8,568 4,854 3,686 2,356 1,859 1,383
Robbery 7,459 3,731 4,261 4,262 2,179 2,064
Violent Crime (total) 16,685 9,109 8,320 6,969 4,449 3,806

Data for other years is available here:

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Macrophage87 t1_jae7ftu wrote

It seems that more assults are turning into murders. Is that because more dangerous weapons or just more practice?

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Most_kinds_of_Dirt t1_jaeuatj wrote

Assaults are down. Homicides are up.

I don't think we can speculate that a third variable (deadlier or more accurate guns) caused either of those trends - at least not based on this data alone.

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High_DC t1_jaf27yw wrote

It's not that guns are deadlier or more accurate. It's that there are more guns, period. Maybe a few years ago the dude who just killed his two roommates wouldn't have had a gun and would have assaulted them, but he had a ghost gun, apparently, so it became a homicide.

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Most_kinds_of_Dirt t1_jaf4ymy wrote

You're still assuming that homicides are replacing assaults.

That's one possible explanation, but there isn't nearly enough information in the chart above to conclude that. An alternative explanation could just be that Covid made people stay inside, and that assaults happen more to strangers on the street while homicide happens more often between people who know each other and who spend lots of time together indoors.

Spending more time indoors could explain those trends just as easily as increased gun ownership. There isn't enough info in the chart above to tell which of those factors is having an impact.

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