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StarryEyedBeardog t1_j9u5iuu wrote

The next few months of this war will be the most decisive yet, as russian conscripts now make their military force in the region larger than Ukraine's. This peace deal lies on if Ukraine or Russia trust they will be able to fully win such a war. If neither believe in an achievable victory, they'll come to the table.

Brazil wants to gain international goodwill by positioning itself as the mediator of such a peace if it occurs. As a foubding member of BRICS, and the most pro US/Europe member of BRICS currently, Itamaraty is trying to position itself in such a way to booster future foreign policy objectives of Brazil, like renegotiating it's OECD entry application, Mercosur-EU free trade treaty, objectives in Africa and Latin America, and UNSC permanent seat objetctives.

Ukraine itself has backed Brazil's proposal at the UN, with Lula having 2 conversations with Zelensky in the past week, so this isn't a long shot. Though I should add that the situation might change quickly depending on who and what is brought to the table and which demands are made.

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Osouturff t1_j9uf9lr wrote

>with Lula having 2 conversations with Zelensky in the past week

I believe the conversations have not heppened yet. The original report from the Itamaraty said that the call between Lula and Zelensky had been scheldueld for after Carnaval and more recently Vieira said that it is expected to happen next week.

Vieria also mentioned that Lula will probably also hold a call with Putin a few days later as to follow the standard practice of the Itamaraty in cases of conflicts.

There's also been some reports that Zelensky will likely invite Lula to visit Ukraine during their direct call. Knowing Lula i think he is likely to accept.

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HubrisSnifferBot t1_j9vh9e7 wrote

Nothing Lula or Zelenskyy say will matter so long as Putin is happy throwing a 1-2,000 Russians to their death every single day. Their losses crossed over 100,000 on Dec 22. They have lost nearly 50,000 more men since that time as they desperately try to take tiny villages in the middle of nowhere. Regardless of good intentions, this war will continue until Russia can no longer field a military. At this rate they are experiencing a Vietnam’s worth of casualties every 5 months or so and picking up speed. How long until it breaks?

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xenoghost1 t1_j9wogl8 wrote

well it does matter because not everyone is Putin stooge. If Lula and Zelenskiy do the song and dance of peace Putin would be cemented as unreasonable party who will call even his allies the west unless they hand him everything he wants. China's plan was a nothing burger, but Zelenskiy who initially was frustrated with it has moved into "we'll talk about". the goal is to isolate Russia rhetorically and eventually Economic. about moving the needle even in India where there is a cynical self interest about "if we play nice with Russia we'll get their stuff when they croak"

Also Vietnam happen in a free society, where the loses could be seen but the benefits of victory weren't. in Russia it is the opposite, a society of brutal repression and where the nationalists have clear goals and "benefits"- i.e. seeing those regions in the Russian landmass.

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