That reminds me. Didn’t Microsoft already release their own chat bot and take it down due to this? I think this is not openai yet. This is still Microsoft’s AI. And that’s how they were able to launch so fast.

This is the right answer and if anyone is interested it’s also why index investing works.

The entire economy does not grow exponentially with every company benefiting. Many companies fail and go to zero.

With buying the whole market you don’t have to guess who will fail or where the next S curve will come from.

AI is not a replacement for the human in the same way that a human is not a replacement for bacteria.

AI will be another lobe. One that sits on top of the entire society and unifies humans into a single body.

Look at our legal system and our tech. The act of writing things down on paper. All of these are crude attempts at unifying humans. Religion is a more ancient way.

To put it in a historical perspective humans have been organizing themselves to become a single entity

First it was religion, then “common law”, then globalization, and the final step will be AI.

Religion evolved over 10 thousand years. Secular law evolved over a few hundred. Globalization a hundred. AI will be decades.

The next 10-20 years we will see more progress than the last 10 thousand combined.

I like it!

Move the chairs into a circle

Wait, I have an idea. Why don’t professors have conversations with their students. That way they can assess what they understand and help them where they’re struggling.

Automation like chatgpt may force us to behave more humanely since any efforts to automate teaching and paper grading will backfire.

Her the movie

Remember yahoo?

If people go to their AI assistant for all their search needs google is dunked

GTA 5

• blackberry and Nokia introduced in 1998 and 1999

That was the beginning of the cell phone movement.

• The first iPhone wasn’t launched until 2007
• Galaxy S was launched in 2010

That was the beginning of the smartphone movement.

But smartphones didn’t really become polished until 2017-2022

The iPhone X released in 2017 and the android pixel 4 released in 2019 appear to me to be “peak smartphone technology”

It took a full 20 years to go from a Nokia to an iPhone X.

But it only took 10 years to go from an iPhone to an iPhone X.

• Cardboard VR was released 2014

• Oculus rift introduced 2016 (not the dev version)

• Oculus quest released 2019

• valve index 2019

• The expensive oculus 2022

Seems right on schedule honestly. Cardboard VR is the Nokia and valve index and oculus quest are the iPhone and android versions etc.

I think the sticker shock of the expensive meta vr is due to zuck price gouging the quest to try to create market dominance. VR will probably be as expensive as new iPhones.

Apple still needs to make a VR.

By 2034 VR should be fully polished for consumers.

VR gloves, walking/running and of course visual quality indistinguishable from real life.

It’s better to not think of AGI as a thing or a single moment but as a process that unfolds over time and has been unfolding for the last hundred years or more.

With automation comes job loss. Job loss frees up labor for new industries to form. New jobs are added. That takes an entire generation because in between job loss and industry creation is despair. We don’t need AI for that. We experienced this with globalization. Entire industries were moved over seas.

It doesn’t matter if the job loss is due to AI doing the job or cheap overseas labor. The result is the same. Globalization caused entire communities to collapse which then lead to drug use and the opioid epidemic. It also lead to the billionaire class.

So to answer your question, automation will only produce more of the above. More job loss, more drug use, more overdose death, more crime and the destruction of communities, more rich billionaires.

We may see population decline as less people are needed due to automation. While tragic for those families the long term looks much brighter in my opinion. Jobs will not go away but we will have to adjust as a species. Industries will be destroyed and new industries will be created. It’s hard to predict what industries will be made but for those individuals that live in that time the quality of work should be better. Compare a knowledge worker today to a factory worker. The work environment is much better.

In 100 years when we pass through this hard time I see a better life for most people on earth. Less people on earth. Better lives. Better jobs. Better living conditions.

And the trillionare class lol

Not kind of. I did exactly that. I was agreeing with you.

It seems you’re looking to be argumentative

Right. That is what happened. Wheels are ways humans conserve energy when transporting goods. How does nature transport goods? It doesn’t. It either consumes the goods on the spot or transports the life form toward the good instead of building systems that transport the good to the life form. There’s imply was no need for a wheel. There was a need for a pump to move nutrients to other cells and so the heart was formed. Wheels that transported oxygenated blood and sugars would be a terrible invention.

Homeschooling or private schools will produce more teachers and less laborers. Nanny’s, personal cooks, yard workers, painters, home builders. Those sorts of jobs will increase because more people will live a lifestyle that demands a higher cost of living and so they hire out more hands to do their bidding.

There will never be a shortage of human desire and so there will never be a shortage of jobs

Pretty much. This post compares VR to phones. Think about how convenient phones have become. At one point they required cords and glued you to a wall inside your house (like VR today). Now phones are sleek and well designed and easily slide in and out of your pocket at a moments notice. You can be in and out anywhere at anytime. That’s what we need for VR to be comparable to smartphones. VR contact lenses would get us there. But glasses could be a bridge.