ScienceWasLove

ScienceWasLove t1_j3h2xqj wrote

Thank you for proving my point. What a great conspiracy. 1% of democratic mail in ballots were discarded.

99% of 1,000,000 were counted correctly.

Percents matter. Proportions matter. Using percents or “3x” with out showing all the raw numbers is not good analysis.

Can you find 1 district, just 1, where the discarded ballots (republican or democrat) impacted the results for that district?

Can you find 1 district, just 1, where ALL mail-in ballots impacted the result for that district?

Most likely not, because they are a rounding error when compared to the in-person voting.

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ScienceWasLove t1_j3h12hj wrote

What “they” know - both sides - is that relative to in-person voting, a small percent will vote with mail in ballots.

In this case under 2%.

The politicians themselves and their campaign people know this….

They know in the vast majority of districts mail-in ballots are inconsequential to the results. They always have been and most likely will continue to be statistically insignificant because they make up such a small amount of overall votes.

They also know that by commenting on these issues in the press, and pretending like there is significant vote fraud or that a significant amount of ballots are discarded - they can galvanize their political base, get more financial contributions, and increase in-person voting.

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ScienceWasLove t1_j3gs0tr wrote

There is a reason percents exist.

It would be very prudent to use these percents, especially the 1% stat for democratic votes to prove how successful democratic messaging was on mail in ballots. Especially when compared to 1.8%.

That same 1% could be used to show that 99% of 1,000,000 mail in ballots were recorded successfully.

We could use the raw numbers as you did to suggest “no wonder, we all know democrats in the cities can’t read”.

We could use the 1.8% vs 1% to say “no wonder, we all know republicans in pennsyaltucky can’t read”.

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An honest, non biased read would be that 98+% of 1.2+ million mail ballots were recorded accurately.

−2

ScienceWasLove t1_j3gqubc wrote

Right. But it is clearly misleading because it makes people think

A) a majority of democratic mail in ballot were not counted WHEN REALLY

B) 10,000 of 1,000,000 mail in democrat votes were not counted (1%)

If you disagree w/ the how misleading the title is, you only need to see the comments.

Another accurate title would be: “Republicans mail ballots thrown out at nearly twice the rate of Democrat mail in ballots”

Equally as alarmist, equally one-sided, equally true, equally mis/disinformation.

How about “98+% of all 1.2+ million mail Ballots recorded accurately”.

A much less sensational headline that builds trust in our near error free election system in PA.

−1

ScienceWasLove t1_j3gqf3p wrote

Mail in ballots is PA cannot be legally counted before Election Day.

Also, in the past, mail in ballots were often not counted in districts until much later if it was determined that the number of mail in ballots could would not have a statical impact on the election. If a district has 100,000 counted “regular” votes with a 95/5 dem/rep split and there were 1,000 main in ballots to count, there is no need to count them ASAP as if all 1,000 were for one candidate or the other, it would not matter vs 100,000 already counted votes.

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ScienceWasLove t1_j3gn7t0 wrote

This info is in the article. 1,000,000 dem and 187,0000 rep mail in ballots.

1% of dem and 1.8% of rep mail in ballots were discarded.

Turns out republicans that mail in their ballot were 1.8 time more likely to have their ballot canceled.

The headline is intentionally alarming and some sort of dis/misinformation.

1

ScienceWasLove t1_j3gmzqr wrote

You are incorrect in stating that this information answers his question. Almost 1.2 million mall in ballots were cast. This info is in the article.

1,000,000 dem and 187,0000 rep mail in ballots.
1% of dem and 1.8% of rep mail in ballots were discarded.

Republicans were 1.8 times more likely to have their mail-in ballot canceled vs. dems.

−2

ScienceWasLove t1_j3gk2ih wrote

I did. I read the entire article. It states, eventually, that there was around 1,000,000 mail in ballots for dems, 187,000 for rep.

16,000 were discarded. 10,000 were from democrats, 3,500 from republicans.

10,000 vs 1,000,000 is 1%

3,500 vs. 187,000 is 1.8%.

I did not include the independent numbers.

It is worse. 1.8x more republicans votes were thrown out proportionally.

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The alarmist title states “a majority” of the thrown out ballots (16,000) were democrats - which is true - because more than half of the THROWN out ballots were dems.

However, this is sensationalism and does not represent a true understanding of what happened.

7

ScienceWasLove t1_j3gjpr4 wrote

I did. I read the entire article. It states, eventually, that there was around 1,000,000 mail in ballots for dems, 187,000 for rep.

16,000 were discarded. 10,000 were from democrats, 3,500 from republicans.

10,000 vs 1,000,000 is 1%

3,500 vs. 187,000 is 1.8%.

I did not include the independent numbers.

It is worse. 1.8x more republicans votes were thrown out proportionally.

======

The alarmist title states “a majority” of the thrown out ballots (16,000) were democrats - which is true - because more than half of the THROWN out ballots were dems.

However, this is sensationalism and does not represent a true understanding of what happened.

−4

ScienceWasLove t1_j3gbpdz wrote

Such irresponsible headline and article

There is no ratios/percents in this article none.

If you compare the 1 million dem mail in votes to the 10k canceled dem ballots - you get 1%. Which is the same percent for the rep mail votes that were canceled. It’s proportionate.

The headline should be “1% of all mail in votes in PA canceled”.

3