ikashnitsky
ikashnitsky OP t1_izt83s7 wrote
Reply to comment by zebulon99 in Football betting experiment: what if I consistently bet against the odds, on the least likely match outcome? This is the English Premier League. What happened in 2019/20? (sorry for the third similar post, I test different competitions incrementally after the jaw-dropping World Cups' results) [OC] by ikashnitsky
ikashnitsky OP t1_izrwvm4 wrote
Reply to comment by Not_Legal_Advice_Pod in Football betting experiment: what if I consistently bet against the odds, on the least likely match outcome? This is the English Premier League. What happened in 2019/20? (sorry for the third similar post, I test different competitions incrementally after the jaw-dropping World Cups' results) [OC] by ikashnitsky
Exactly. The big question is whether the surprising results at World Cups are random or systematic.
ikashnitsky OP t1_izrvo53 wrote
Reply to Football betting experiment: what if I consistently bet against the odds, on the least likely match outcome? This is the English Premier League. What happened in 2019/20? (sorry for the third similar post, I test different competitions incrementally after the jaw-dropping World Cups' results) [OC] by ikashnitsky
See the previous similar posts::
- World Cups: https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/zcm4r0
- UEFA Champions League: https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/zim8d6
Data: https://www.oddsportal.com/soccer/england/premier-league/results
Tools: R
R package with the data: https://github.com/ikashnitsky/oddor
ikashnitsky OP t1_iywe07r wrote
Reply to comment by ranger934 in Average goals scored per game played at the World Cups — there used to be more goals in the past; since 1962 no World Cup averaged at more than 3 goals per game [OC] by ikashnitsky
Thanks. I guess, you meant x axis? Grey background is just aesthetics, but it does help to read very light colors.
ikashnitsky OP t1_iysx362 wrote
ikashnitsky OP t1_iyr9xl7 wrote
Reply to comment by [deleted] in Were there too many sensations in the group-stage games at the FIFA World Cup in Qatar? What if I bet the same amount against the odds in all the group-stage games? WOW – I would have finished the experiment with a net profit of almost 48 coins! [OC] by ikashnitsky
That's very interesting! Do you know of any reference that explains how bookmakers calculate the odds?
ikashnitsky OP t1_iyqw4ij wrote
Reply to comment by Eriklano in Were there too many sensations in the group-stage games at the FIFA World Cup in Qatar? What if I bet the same amount against the odds in all the group-stage games? WOW – I would have finished the experiment with a net profit of almost 48 coins! [OC] by ikashnitsky
perhaps it's a direct translation in my from the typical Russian usage
ikashnitsky OP t1_iyqsotw wrote
Reply to Were there too many sensations in the group-stage games at the FIFA World Cup in Qatar? What if I bet the same amount against the odds in all the group-stage games? WOW – I would have finished the experiment with a net profit of almost 48 coins! [OC] by ikashnitsky
SEE AN UPD OF THIS ANALYSIS: https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/zcm4r0
Data: https://www.oddsportal.com/soccer/world/world-cup-2022/results
Tools: R
Code: https://gist.github.com/ikashnitsky/aa56f8d30046c44d3f59c0047033e820
ikashnitsky OP t1_izwfa4l wrote
Reply to comment by MarkVarga in Football betting experiment: what if I consistently bet against the odds, on the least likely match outcome? This is the English Premier League. What happened in 2019/20? (sorry for the third similar post, I test different competitions incrementally after the jaw-dropping World Cups' results) [OC] by ikashnitsky
Thanks, I can't see how the medium option may be beneficial, I guess this would be betting on the draw most of the times. I can check, of course.The question is: how do I report back the results? I feel I have already exhausted the limit of attention people are willing to spare here =)