Submitted by For_All_Humanity t3_zvznmd in Futurology
Comments
Human_Anybody7743 t1_j1sugik wrote
They'll also get several huge benefits that the global north is trying their absolute best to avoid.
Small EVs with swappable batteries are safer, more convenient, less damaging to their surroundings, and battery swapping stations provide arbitrage and grid stability rather than superchargers which increase peak demand and reduce stability.
mhornberger t1_j1tjtjn wrote
I think it depends on the speed those small EVs are driven. In a place with poor roads, maybe everyone has to drive more slowly. But in the US, motorcycles have a quite significantly higher fatality rate per mile of travel. And I'd wager that countries in which people travel more by scooter have a higher death rate on the road.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_traffic-related_death_rate
I definitely prefer EV scooters over ICE scooters.
Human_Anybody7743 t1_j1tnr65 wrote
I was more thinking something like this moving at 40. Also without a car-free sample you can't distinguish the danger caused by a scooter from the danger caused by not being protected from a car (statistically death and injury rates are heavily skewed towards crashes involving a car) and high speed motorcycles are frequently lumped in with low speed.
Surur t1_j1tto74 wrote
I wish the anti-car movement would campaign for small EV cars instead of buses, trains and bikes. At least they offer the real benefit of cars without the negatives of public transport and bikes.
Human_Anybody7743 t1_j1tu5do wrote
They're not a viable 'instead' though as they also don't offer the upsides of those options. A 4 wheel LEV parking lot and road system will occupy 30% of your city rather than 75%, it still needs a sober adult without any balance, sleep or coordination disorders, it is still dangerous, it still makes outdoor spaces horrible to be in if you have enough of them to move everyone. It needs to be an 'as well'.
Surur t1_j1tuh9v wrote
They could use the same infrastructure as bikes lol.
Or are you implying bikes don't need parking lots and roads?
And of course being electrified they could be centrally controlled e.g. robotaxis.
Human_Anybody7743 t1_j1tvvhi wrote
> They could use the same infrastructure as bikes lol.
Well no. If it's status quo rather than disability and elderly only then you're just making the bike paths uninhabitable by children, new riders, etc.
> Or are you implying bikes don't need parking lots and roads?
It's a matter of density. A 4m wide train line can take 80,000 people an hour. A 4m wide bike lane can move 10,000-20,000 people an hour. A car park sized spot can fit 40 bicycles vs 10 mopeds or 3 of these. A folding bike can fit under your desk, as can an escooter. Doubling or tripling your capacity and reducing danger with LEVs is appropriate for some areas, but there are no silver bullets.
You need local streets heavily biased towards smaller vehicles and transit and active transport pathways safe enough that you see a 60 year old grandma biking to the shops next to their 3 yo grandkid.
[deleted] t1_j1tx0zs wrote
[removed]
Shillbot_9001 t1_j1xmux9 wrote
>Well no. If it's status quo rather than disability and elderly only then you're just making the bike paths uninhabitable by children, new riders, etc.
Uninhabitable? The dutch manage just fine.
Human_Anybody7743 t1_j1xnaiu wrote
Their bike lanes aren't full of microcars because they're restricted, scooters are a big problem, and there are ongoing efforts to improve safety.
Mescallan t1_j1txs0g wrote
I live in Vietnam and they are piloting a similar program now with the intention on going full electric by 2030 (not going to happen). Most people ride motorbikes here anyway, so switching to electric bikes wouldn't actually be too hard. There are 7-11 like connivence stores with a wall of batteries that you can exchange without needing to recharge yours (which is an option as well).
I could see an all electric urban environment here faster than in the states if only because driving a car is not the norm. If high density urban environments prioritized two wheel transportation it would be much quicker to transition.
For_All_Humanity OP t1_j1s0bk4 wrote
> Over recent months, sets of sturdy, brightly-branded battery swapping stations have cropped up around Kenya's capital Nairobi, allowing electric motorcyclists to exchange their low battery for a fully-charged one.
>It is a sign of an electric motorcyle revolution starting to unfold in Kenya where combustion-engine motorbikes are a cheaper and quicker way to get around than cars but environmental experts say are 10 times more polluting.
>East Africa's biggest economy is betting on electric-powered motorcycles, its renewables-heavy power supply and position as a technology and start-up hub to lead the region's shift to zero-emission electric mobility.
>The battery swapping system not only saves time - essential for Kenya's more than one million motorcyclists, most of whom use the bikes commercially - but also saves buyers money as many sellers follow a model in which they retain ownership of the battery, the bike's most expensive part.
>"It doesn't make a lot of economic and business sense for them to acquire a battery...which would almost double the cost of the bike," said Steve Juma, the co-founder of electric bike company Ecobodaa.
>Ecobodaa has 50 test electric motorcyles on the road now and plans to have 1,000 by the end of 2023 which it sells for about $1,500 each - roughly the same price as combustion-engine bikes thanks to the exclusion of the battery from the cost.
>After the initial purchase, the electric motorcyle - designed to be sturdy enough to traverse rocky roads - is cheaper to run than petrol-guzzling ones.
>"With the normal bike, I will use fuel worth approximately 700-800 Kenyan shillings ($5.70-$6.51) each day, but with this bike, when I swap a battery I get one battery at 300 shillings," said Kevin Macharia, 28, who transports goods and passengers around Nairobi.
EXPANSION PLANS
>Ecobodaa is just one of several Nairobi-based electric motorcycle startups working to prove themselves in Kenya before eventually expanding in East Africa.
>Kenya's consistent power supply which is about 95% renewable led by hydroelectricity and has a widespread network, was a major support for growth of the sector, said Jo Hurst-Croft, founder of ARC Ride, another Nairobi-based electric motorcycle startup.
>The country's power utility estimates it generates enough to charge two million electric motorcycles a day: electricity access in the country is over 75%, according to the World Bank, and even higher in Nairobi.
>Uganda and Tanzania also have robust and renewables-heavy grids that could support electric mobility, said Hurst-Croft.
>"We're putting over 200 swapping stations in Nairobi and expanding to Dar es Salaam and Kampala," said Hurst-Croft.
ttystikk t1_j1s77xw wrote
This is an example of developing nations finding the most cost effective models for the rollout of new technologies. Good stuff!
abrandis t1_j1witrq wrote
Exactly, India has been doing something similar with their traditional tuk tuk , their literally ripping out the engine and replacing with an electric motor, since over time it's much cheaper to run... Sometimes they even "borrow" electricity from the grid
ttystikk t1_j1wqqye wrote
I'm sure they do. An electric tuk tuk is an improvement in nearly every way. I'm even fine with losing the nostalgic tuk tuk noise lol
Cloaked42m t1_j1ubhwn wrote
I can't tell you how many times I've been told this very thing was impossible and couldn't be done. Just design cars to have swappable batteries. Even bring back full service stations to have someone go and pull your battery and swap in a fresh one. Then take the battery and plug it into the charging station.
Universal charging points on the batteries and standardized shapes. Duracell, get on it.
thefifeman t1_j1ubwmo wrote
Maybe for cars it's a different story. Significantly larger battery that can't be easily moved by hand.
For_All_Humanity OP t1_j1ucb5j wrote
Yes unlikely this will be a thing for medium-large vehicles. Maybe for ultra light vehicles which won’t show up in many countries. Primary focus in Africa and Asia is dealing with the motorbike problem. They’re loud and dirty and everywhere.
Cloaked42m t1_j1uccia wrote
Edited my comment to allow for that.
Standardized shapes of car batteries plus full service stations. It would allow for you to have your battery changed out in 5 minutes and be back on the road. Plus create entry level jobs.
It would make EVs cheaper now that you know you aren't on the hook to pay tens of thousands to replace a battery.
Truck stops could have specialized systems to take care of the bigguns, or it could just be multiples of D type car batteries.
LiquidVibes t1_j1uf5ah wrote
Bro you are ignoring the true issue here: EV companies are insanely battery constrained. For this to work you would need to produce 10x more batteries than cars as you need to have a shitton available at each swapping station
It’s just not possible in a battery constrained environment
doctorzoom t1_j1uoy9j wrote
If you could charge them fast enough, you'd only need a small amount of batteries at the swap points.
Cloaked42m t1_j1ug27e wrote
It's not possible with the 'types' of batteries we use.
If you went with smaller, replaceable batteries, that maybe aren't as efficient, then you could do it.
LiquidVibes t1_j1ui8ml wrote
Could be possible with the new LFP batteries Tesla started using, they are very cheap and easy to produce as they are mostly just a block of iron.
The issue as you pointed out is that range will be very impacted. This is bad for adoption as 90% of charging is done at home anyways.
Cloaked42m t1_j1ujy6k wrote
Redesign so you have a dozen batteries, but smaller, and load them like rifle rounds. You can stop at a station to 'fill up'.
An attendant comes up to your car, offloads batteries, goes and exchanges them for good batteries. Then comes back and loads up the good ones. Car shuffles them as needed, you pay your bill, and off you go.
You could even automate the process with self driving cars. They pick a nearby station, go to it, lines you up with the service gantry.
An automated process goes through the whole thing. You get an option to get out of your car to go to the store (with ads) while the process is going on.
Miguel-odon t1_j20emwc wrote
If there was a standardized battery for them to design around, wouldn't that make it easier? You wouldn't need 10x
Turksarama t1_j1ufn5q wrote
Batteries for these bikes weigh maybe 20kg (~45 lbs), whereas an electric car battery is closer to 500kg (~1200 lbs).
One of these can be swapped by hand, the other needs heavy machinery.
Shillbot_9001 t1_j1xm2uy wrote
>the other needs heavy machinery.
It needs an engine crane,not exactly an expensive or hard to use piece of machinery.
Turksarama t1_j1xyr1b wrote
You want to use one of those every time your battery is empty? It may not be hard but you have to account for the stupidest person in the room, someone will manage to crush themselves.
Miguel-odon t1_j20euu4 wrote
The battery-swap station would need some sort of equipment, yes. Operating it could be part of the service. It could even be automated.
Cloaked42m t1_j1ugny5 wrote
Which is a design flaw and constraint that can be changed.
Turksarama t1_j1uh8mp wrote
There are engineering problems and then there are physics problems, making a battery with enough energy to be useful for a car and light enough to be lifted by an average person is the latter.
Not going to happen.
Miguel-odon t1_j20f3ph wrote
>light enough to be lifted by an average person
You just added an unnecessary design constraint.
Most people couldn't carry 14 gallons of gasoline, either, but have no problem getting their tank full.
Turksarama t1_j21jb7d wrote
Describe to me how you think this might work. Swappable batteries that do not need to be loaded by heavy machinery, and also don't need to be lifted by anyone. I'm dying to know your design.
Miguel-odon t1_j21m7u6 wrote
Do you not use machinery to put fuel in your car?
Turksarama t1_j21qo8u wrote
Yes, and that machinery is analogous in use to the fast chargers that currently exist.
I do not swap out the empty fuel tank for a full one. Go ahead, describe the process.
Cloaked42m t1_j1ujdgg wrote
That's if you assume a single battery instead of multiple batteries.
It also assumes that you can't provide equipment to deal with additional weight.
Turksarama t1_j1umbho wrote
Ok, hands up who wants to hand load 25 heavy batteries. There's no audience but I'm imagining a stadium with no hands up.
Cloaked42m t1_j1uwf65 wrote
It's like you forgot that machines exist and are customized to purpose.
Or do we hand carry steel beams from place to place?
doctorzoom t1_j1upqua wrote
Could be a team of people. Could be the folks that are in the coal mines, gas and oil fields. Each swap station visit would feel like a pit stop.
doctorzoom t1_j1up9yg wrote
Split the big battery into easily managed cells. A bike would take 1 cell, a mini car 4, etc.
abrandis t1_j1wj1ze wrote
As others noted logistically auto batteries are very heavy and would require special machines at each station to exchange them (aka not a cheap solution) , plus as fast charging say 30min to 80% becomes more common its just much easier to do that..
Cloaked42m t1_j1wlz15 wrote
I wouldn't consider a 30 minute stop to partially fill the tank an okay thing.
It's futurology. Dream of the solution.
T-Rex_timeout t1_j1su1yn wrote
This is what I’ve been saying for 7 years. You should able to switch them out like propane tanks.
LittleKittyLove t1_j1syuab wrote
It’s a nice idea, and works with bikes. Less practical for cars.
The battery is the heaviest part in the car, it is massive in size, and it carries more than enough power to turn you into an exploding lightbulb. It is a big deal to swap it out.
Additionally, batteries last long enough that the design of cars is changing to build the battery into the frame, as part of the car. It’s analogous to either trying to fit a fuel tank into the wing of a plane, or simply making the entire wing a fuel tank.
It’s a big win from a design perspective, helping push towards 600+ mile ranges, but the battery cannot be swapped out, only recycled at the end of the car’s life.
For cars, battery swapping is not necessary. The expectation is to wake up at full battery every day, with more than enough for daily commuting and living. For big drives, the car automatically plans charging stops, and supercharging only adds about 10-20% travel time if you’re going 500+ miles in a single day.
Any concerns about EV charging are completely fixed by adding charging stations at home or at work, which is exactly as difficult as adding adding a standard washer/dryer outlet.
lepus_fatalis t1_j1t3q6o wrote
a very privileged point of view imo.
Comparing a short charge time of like 5 minutes for a gas pump which immediately gives you full mileage with a 20min (in selected locations) partial charge on an already shorter range is imo, disingenuous at best or ignorant at worst.
Battery swapping could be possible if it werent for some tech resilient people that are already conservative on a tech that is barely a few years out in public - "uh but the design does not allow," "this is how it s made" etc.
fact is, it is very much possible as thse people have proven on bikes which of course could have also benefited from the trivial design takes you mentioned, but chose not to and actually select bike designs where battery swap is possible.
sheesh
Surur t1_j1tty2l wrote
> Battery swapping could be possible
Battery swapping for cars is real in China, with Nio, so there is a real competition amongst the technologies, but I think regular built-in batteries are winning even there.
Their cars can of course also be charged in the usual way.
Nio is also expanding to Europe.
LittleKittyLove t1_j1t7f8j wrote
I’m sorry if I’ve rubbed you the wrong way! I’m not trying to put anyone down, just explain the situation, and why things are the way they are, along with where they will be going.
It is currently a privileged point of view to talk about EVs like I am. Most people cannot afford an EV with a large range, or the ability to supercharge. Most people have trouble charging at home or at work. I’d guess driving an EV will be a privilege for another 3-10 years.
But what is a privileged experience for me today is going to be average pretty quick here. The tech is improving, and all major manufacturers are leaning almost exclusively towards EV now. Give it 5 or 10 years, and 300+ miles + supercharging + charging at home will be uninteresting. If we can manage to build, maintain, and refuel gas stations across the world, we can add some power outlets in parking lots.
Sooo the summary of my many paragraphs: battery swaps on cars probably won’t be a thing, since they aren’t necessary in real life experience, and they hurt design/range. We will see more charging pop up around residential and commercial, and most EVs will have the ability to supercharge. That is the end of all charging problems. Charge them with gasoline if you need to—gas in a large generator is more efficient than gas in an internal combustion engine.
Charging anxiety is mostly a thing for people who haven’t driven EV. When you have one, you see it’s already not a problem.
Vitztlampaehecatl t1_j1t5i89 wrote
Cope. Electric bikes > electric cars for short trips, and trains > electric cars for long trips. This goes double for countries that haven't already sunk billions into car infrastructure and would need to build that out from scratch.
Shillbot_9001 t1_j1xn94d wrote
>nd trains > electric cars for long trips
Laughs in rural
Cries in rural
KmartQuality t1_j1w4tex wrote
I think it only works economically if the battery packs are rented by the day. Propane tanks are empty vessels when the energy is used up. Battery packs are still just as valuable while they sit around doing nothing.
If you are a single user and ride your bike all the time then this is a once/day expense, just like adding petrol, and very cost effecient. But if you are a more casual user I think this would not be cost effective. You would have to pay for the battery every day it is not returned.
T-Rex_timeout t1_j1w6rzy wrote
I used propane tanks as an example just because people are familiar with that concept.
KmartQuality t1_j1wb22h wrote
With the propane tank, to get started you have to buy a tank. After that they're happy to swap out going forward.
Maybe they have a setup where you actually buy a battery but then continue the same way as with propane.
It's very expensive up front though.
T-Rex_timeout t1_j1wbhnt wrote
Dude I told you it was just an example people are familiar with not the exact business model.
KmartQuality t1_j1wctwv wrote
Dude this is a forum for discussion.
dgamr t1_j1tsqxy wrote
This was pioneered by a company in Taiwan a few years ago called Gogoro. Works fairly well, most of the capitol is covered in swap stations.
For e-bikes, they’re way better than charging stations.
shirk-work t1_j1u0d0s wrote
Figured the vehicle would be subsidized and it's not too difficult to set up some proprietary circuits so you can only charge the batteries at the official charger so you lock people into using the swap station which is where most of the money comes in. Those who are smart enough can hack the circuits to charge the battery themselves or course voiding the warranty and ability to be swapped.
Yukondano2 t1_j1tbeju wrote
This is the solution ive suggested for countries that are currently, or will soon be, industrializing hard. Help em skip coal and go green. We have the tech, and they don't have our level of severely entrenched fossil fuel companies... I hope. I imagine some do from us because, neo-colonialism is a thing. It would be unfair for bigger countries to expect them to not use fossul fuels without offering to help with an alternative.
Ixneigh t1_j1ui9bc wrote
We could have easily had this system in the USA but big business wanted ev to fail.
Shillbot_9001 t1_j1xnkr9 wrote
The batteries would be stolen, and the bikes. Also the companies running it will scam people by giving them worn out batteries that don't hold a charge. And the people using it will be run down in the streets by some middle aged women texting behind the wheel of an SUV.
Big business doesn't need to lift a finger on this one.
FuturologyBot t1_j1s430a wrote
The following submission statement was provided by /u/For_All_Humanity:
> Over recent months, sets of sturdy, brightly-branded battery swapping stations have cropped up around Kenya's capital Nairobi, allowing electric motorcyclists to exchange their low battery for a fully-charged one.
>It is a sign of an electric motorcyle revolution starting to unfold in Kenya where combustion-engine motorbikes are a cheaper and quicker way to get around than cars but environmental experts say are 10 times more polluting.
>East Africa's biggest economy is betting on electric-powered motorcycles, its renewables-heavy power supply and position as a technology and start-up hub to lead the region's shift to zero-emission electric mobility.
>The battery swapping system not only saves time - essential for Kenya's more than one million motorcyclists, most of whom use the bikes commercially - but also saves buyers money as many sellers follow a model in which they retain ownership of the battery, the bike's most expensive part.
>"It doesn't make a lot of economic and business sense for them to acquire a battery...which would almost double the cost of the bike," said Steve Juma, the co-founder of electric bike company Ecobodaa.
>Ecobodaa has 50 test electric motorcyles on the road now and plans to have 1,000 by the end of 2023 which it sells for about $1,500 each - roughly the same price as combustion-engine bikes thanks to the exclusion of the battery from the cost.
>After the initial purchase, the electric motorcyle - designed to be sturdy enough to traverse rocky roads - is cheaper to run than petrol-guzzling ones.
>"With the normal bike, I will use fuel worth approximately 700-800 Kenyan shillings ($5.70-$6.51) each day, but with this bike, when I swap a battery I get one battery at 300 shillings," said Kevin Macharia, 28, who transports goods and passengers around Nairobi.
EXPANSION PLANS
>Ecobodaa is just one of several Nairobi-based electric motorcycle startups working to prove themselves in Kenya before eventually expanding in East Africa.
>Kenya's consistent power supply which is about 95% renewable led by hydroelectricity and has a widespread network, was a major support for growth of the sector, said Jo Hurst-Croft, founder of ARC Ride, another Nairobi-based electric motorcycle startup.
>The country's power utility estimates it generates enough to charge two million electric motorcycles a day: electricity access in the country is over 75%, according to the World Bank, and even higher in Nairobi.
>Uganda and Tanzania also have robust and renewables-heavy grids that could support electric mobility, said Hurst-Croft.
>"We're putting over 200 swapping stations in Nairobi and expanding to Dar es Salaam and Kampala," said Hurst-Croft.
Please reply to OP's comment here: https://old.reddit.com/r/Futurology/comments/zvznmd/battery_swapping_spurs_kenyas_electric_motorbike/j1s0bk4/
functional_sigmoid t1_j1trykk wrote
It's great to see the adoption of electric motorcycles in Kenya. Not
only are they a more environmentally friendly option, but they also have
the potential to save users money in the long run. The implementation
of battery swapping stations is a smart move as it makes the transition
to electric bikes more convenient for riders. It's also encouraging to
see that the country's power supply is heavily reliant on renewable
energy sources, making the adoption of electric transportation even more
sustainable. Here's hoping that this trend continues and spreads to
other parts of the world.
im4ruckus t1_j277gly wrote
Ah, the ubiquitous bodaboda! Used to transport people, chickens, and coffins in a pinch. Love east Africa!!
Hot_Sentence_7002 t1_j1usqfd wrote
Use a fork lift or a jack designed to do it . It could be done from under neat like at oil change stations. Just lower the dead battery and raise the full one . You could lease the batteries to the car owner . Piece of piss
KmartQuality t1_j1w5e5g wrote
This is only useful for large vehicle end-of-life battery changes. You wouldn't do this like a pit stop.
A moped sized bike can be changed like a pit stop, however. For people that ride A LOT and possibly don't have a safe garage to charge up, this is a good choice.
Surur t1_j1slt98 wrote
In another thread someone said that the developing world will miss out on the EV revolution as EVs cost too much, but in fact the developing world would benefit most from the fuel and maintenance benefits from EVs, and with ICE vehicles you cant get your fuel from the sun.