Is the Metro subway dying?

Submitted by Rubysdad1975 t3_zanok1 in baltimore

I had such a weird experience the other day. I took the Baltimore Metro from Reisterstown Plaza to Charles Center during the morning and evening rush hour. Nobody was there. Ok - not NOBODY, but almost nobody. Trains and stations were practically empty at 8:45 AM! Here’s the thing -I used to take the subway to work everyday back in the early 2010s and trains were packed during rush hour. So, I looked at the ridership numbers for the Metro from the American Public Transit Association and my jaw dropped. In the early 2010s daily ridership routinely topped 50k riders with the peak being the second quarter of 2013 with 60K. The second quarter of 2022? 3.9K! The first quarter of 2022? 4.7K! I know COVID hit transit hard, but I didn’t see any other system with the total collapse in ridership that our subway has had. We now have half the ridership of Cleveland’s heavy rail line. What happened??

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throwaway72300ii t1_iymp27a wrote

In my experience as a young woman, once ridership dropped off, it was a bit of a domino effect for a casual rider like myself. I don’t think twice about taking public transit in other cities at all with bustling, robust systems but it’s been five years since I’ve “considered metro”… it feels far too risky to take a train and chance being in a mostly empty car by myself or with another female friend.

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marshgirl12 t1_iymrp4z wrote

This!! And if I know one way (to or from) it will be dark I find an alternative mode of transit.

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Matt3989 t1_iymjy6x wrote

I commute with the Metro at least 3 days a week, I think it's a couple of things:

  • Fewer people paying for tickets due to the App (there's pretty much always a gate open, and there's not always an attendant, so it becomes a challenge to even prove that you're a rider that day). This is especially true for Student passes, their tickets are already paid for so there's no reason to even attempt to show the attendant, just go through the open gate. Daily ticketing on the app is really just awful btw, if you use the metro, get a Charm Card and ignore the app.

  • Better Bus routes have made some of the metro transfers obsolete

  • More people working from home so there are less people commuting to T-Rowe/Hopkins Hospital

  • The number of Bus Bridges, Single Tracking Days, Brake Fires, etc. is insane. It's a toss-up when trains will leave, and how long the ride will be. It can be anywhere from 28 minutes to 1:20 end to end. I have a flexible job so it doesn't matter when I get in, but if you are on a strict schedule, I don't see how the Metro is a viable option.

Another pet peeve: Why don't the underground stations have 5g (or any service) towers yet? If I'm waiting an extra 10 minutes for a delayed train, it would be nice to check some emails or browse reddit or something.

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needleinacamelseye t1_iymsx2y wrote

> More people working from home so there are less people commuting to T-Rowe/Hopkins Hospital

I wonder how much of this is also the hollowing-out of jobs in the old downtown - a lot of companies have relocated to Harbor East in the last few years, which the subway doesn't serve. Given that the subway is so poorly integrated with the rest of the city's transit system, it would make sense that if commuters vanish due to relocations + WFH, so does most of the line's ridership.

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Matt3989 t1_iymu9j6 wrote

Shot tower to Harbor East isn't too bad given the rest of Baltimore's transit. I could be wrong, but I think a significant number of Harbor East workers just live in the area.

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needleinacamelseye t1_iymy5au wrote

I would imagine that for someone choosing between transit and driving, a mandatory transfer from subway to bus is going to push them towards driving instead of transit.

Given Harbor East's better location for car commuting at the end of the JFX, its (presumed - I don't actually know) better parking situation, and the fact that most commuters are no longer in the office five days a week, I would think that people that would have taken the subway when they were downtown five days a week will prefer to drive than subway + bus if they only have to be in Harbor East two days a week.

Fair point about more people living near Harbor East, though - why take the subway when you could walk? I'd love to see a more thorough analysis of where and how commuters move around the city.

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peanutnozone t1_iyn3gu8 wrote

Prior to Covid I worked in Harbor East and I knew at least a few of my colleagues who took the subway and got off at shot tower… anecdotal I know but I think a lot of what we’re seeing is effects of the pandemic

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bwoods43 t1_iyn4ims wrote

Not everyone has a car, so that option isn't available to everyone. I think what the above poster was saying is that for people who take Metro, it's pretty easy to get to Harbor East on foot. But also, perhaps there are fewer people taking any mass transit to Harbor East because they may now live in the area.

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Gitopia t1_iymxejv wrote

State center had a huge number of riders pre-2020.

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dillond18 t1_iynzhlf wrote

Same goes for the light rail. Seems like everyday there is a massive delay, bus bridge, or single tracking. Until transit is reliable people won't use it over driving.

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petitepixel t1_iymj2w3 wrote

> What happened??

The option to work from home.

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Rubysdad1975 OP t1_iymk02j wrote

I don’t buy it. The Baltimore Metro is the only heavy rail subway in the country to see an overall drop in ridership through the first half of 2022. Philly’s SEPTA subway saw a 37% increase over the same period. Chicago’s CTA subway and Elevated lines saw a 60% increase. There’s no way to see Baltimore’s subway as anything but an outlier.

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sunglasses90 t1_iyn1vpk wrote

Baltimore has a large number of state, local, and federal employees. A large majority of which are now remote. Even other private companies have moved to remote. I haven’t used the light rail since March 2020 and I absolutely would not do it again because ridership is so low it’s too risky as a woman to ride alone. Especially with no people around.

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pk10534 t1_iynafgq wrote

DC likely has more remote workers than we do though

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todareistobmore t1_iyncmjk wrote

DC has a subway system, Baltimore has a subway line. I feel like most of the people who can't understand the difference have never really used the Baltimore subway--which is great for what it is, but also goes to very few places most people need to get to.

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pk10534 t1_iynd0bq wrote

Yes, I understand that. My point is that talking about government employees seems odd given that I can’t imagine other cities like NY and Chicago don’t have similar numbers of public employment, and that DC is probably leagues ahead of us in that realm. I don’t think that’s why the subway here is dying

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todareistobmore t1_iynimd8 wrote

It's not so much that Baltimore has such a large percentage of public employees, but rather that so much of our subway's pre-pandemic usage was specifically about commuting, whether to Hopkins or Charles Center or State Center or Owings Mills.

The thing about DC or Chicago or NYC is that the subway's something you take to get around the city that also takes you to work. Ours was only ever really built for the second part, and without that you're basically left with a train that connects Lexington Market to parts of East and NW Baltimore.

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sunglasses90 t1_iynrm8u wrote

DC also has a lot more people living there for schools/work and has a lot of tourism.

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petitepixel t1_iymkfhu wrote

I know all workplaces and individuals are different, but I invested in my at home workspace and haven't been into the office since 2020.

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brutereasons t1_iymm66z wrote

I've taken the metro twice in the last 2 years. Both times I arrived 5 minutes before a train was supposedly arriving, and had to wait literally 45 minutes for the train to actually show, and the smell in the station was truly something else. Don't know if it was like that in the early 2010s, but I can see why people would try not to use it now

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Matt3989 t1_iymr3wd wrote

This isn't the norm, even with late/canceled trains there are usually only 15-20 minute headways.

I've also never been in an unclean station, which one was it?

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brutereasons t1_iymtsvs wrote

Good to know, thanks! The stations I used between going in and out were State Center, Penn North, and Mondawmin - can't remember which was the really bad one

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baltimorecalling t1_iymzp48 wrote

The Subway used to be quick and reliable, even if it had a limited service area (Last time I regularly used it was 2012-2016).

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sit_down_man t1_iynd6iu wrote

Hmm that’s strange. I’ve only ridden the subway a few times and all within the last year just for fun - but the one thing it had going for it was that the station and cars were both immaculate. Of course, that was largely because so few people were riding lol…

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Matt3989 t1_iynpvag wrote

Cars are occassionally not immaculate, particularly in the winter when there are some homeless riding around just to stay warm. But they're usually cleaner than DC's. The most common annoyance is the amount of people who smoke cigarettes while in the cars.

Stations on the other hand are spotless, and they feature some nice art installations or murals.

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RNconsequential t1_iyod3jt wrote

There is a Metro subway in Baltimore?!

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Cheomesh t1_iyq2i4k wrote

I know, right? I'd only learned it existed in like 2019. I rode it once.

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High_Seas_Pirate t1_iz3mezb wrote

I started typing up a comment about how I only ever used it to ride down to the National Mall in DC from Silver Spring, but then realized the DC metro and Baltimore metro aren't linked. I've ridden the Baltimore metro once or twice when I was a kid going downtown to see an O's game, but I don't even do that anymore. They've somehow managed to make parking in the city less of a hassle than taking the metro and that's incredibly disappointing.

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Cheomesh t1_iz3u5rb wrote

>the DC metro and Baltimore metro aren't linked

Wild, innit?

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wbruce098 t1_iyqt8ht wrote

My thoughts exactly. I knew it existed somewhere but it’s nowhere I need to be, so I drive.

Maybe in 15-20 years we’ll have the red line 🤷🏻‍♂️ not holding my breath though because in 15-20 years we’ll probably also have self driving cars available as a subscription service for about the same price.

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Rubysdad1975 OP t1_iymzuez wrote

It’s worth noting that the ridership numbers begin to slide when Hogan became governor. MTA is a state agency and decisions are really made in Annapolis. Does anyone think his willful devaluing of mass transit in Baltimore has something to do with this slide? Remember, no other subway line in the country has seen this level of constant decline. It can’t just be COVID or working from home. It has to be something more.

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sunglasses90 t1_iyn27xl wrote

It’s mostly Covid. Covid reduced ridership so much that it became exponentially less safe to ride public transit. Driving is safer on a day to day basis. There used to be safety in numbers, especially during rush hour.

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Beneficial-Pickle787 t1_iyniwvq wrote

Driving is actually much more dangerous, especially as people have been speeding more and more.

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sunglasses90 t1_iynrewy wrote

From an accident perspective yes. I avoid downtown as much as possible these days and drive very defensively. From a crime perspective the car gives you added protection. You’re better off locked in your car than standing alone waiting for public transportation.

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Beneficial-Pickle787 t1_iypjonc wrote

It’s actually not as clear cut. Cars are targets for carjacking, and people will assume you have $ if you’re getting out of a nice car. In Baltimore the perception is, if you’re taking public transit, you’re probably poor.

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metrawhat t1_iyr5j1r wrote

How many of Hogan's housing developments are in the county? I bet none of them are near public transit and therefore not beneficial to his pocket. It's been interesting to watch the multiple highway improvements initiated near his properties.

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dillond18 t1_iynzvdr wrote

Yeah def Hogan, I hope things will turn around for public transit in Baltimore and Maryland statewide with new leadership coming

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TomassoLP t1_iynan8z wrote

Unfortunately this is what happens when cities build commuter lines disguised as a subway. Nobody uses that thing for anything other than commuting, which nowadays there is much less of.

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festivus_maximus t1_iymsh78 wrote

State employees ride for free and are therefore probably a significant portion of ridership. And I suspect that they are also among the last to return in full force to the workplace.

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Optimus_RE t1_iymyxww wrote

For county commuters by the time you get to Owings Mills you're cruising along then you have to get off the exit, park and then walk all the way to the trains and wait, by that time if you were driving your half way down the beltway. Not to mention sitting in a train with some sketchy characters because of where the train line runs. Less traffic on the roadways too so I think people realize you can drive by yourself and park in the city much faster than relying on the subway. There really aren't that many 'great' stops and obviously no transfers to other subway lines, it's just a poor system with no real benefit.

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elderassassin2580 t1_iyndrhh wrote

I’ve lived here almost my entire life, and minus a couple times going to DC, I’ve never used the metro. And I don’t know anyone my age who has either. (I’m 22 for context)

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cdbloosh t1_iyozlzs wrote

I’m 34, lived around Baltimore my entire life and lived in the city proper for the last 13 years. I’ve never been on the Baltimore metro. I’ve never even been in a situation where I was considering it.

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High_Seas_Pirate t1_iz3mv44 wrote

I had that same thought, then I looked it up and realized the DC metro is wholely seperate from the Baltimore metro. It would be great if I could just hop on a train in Baltimore and ride down to the capital but the closest station to DC is probably Greenmount.

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elderassassin2580 t1_iz4r08l wrote

The amtrak exists lmao

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GovernorOfReddit t1_iynhi2k wrote

I dunno anything about Cleveland’s system but based on my (admittedly limited) knowledge of the system in Baltimore, it’s not even directly connected to Penn Station. Like, I get frustrated with the fact that Union Station in DC is only on the Red Line but I can at least expect to be in Union Station when I get off the train. Every time I’m in Baltimore, there doesn’t feel like a good reason to even casually use the subway compared to even the light rail. When driving, walking or taking the bus will be more efficient for what I need.

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Nexis4Jersey t1_iyov4j8 wrote

Phase 2 was supposed to connect to the Penn Line at a new station in Madison Square , along with continuing to Morgan State University and out to White Marsh.

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CaptainObvious110 t1_iyodlcq wrote

Yeah it's only on the Red Line but the other lines are only a few stops away and you can go in any direction you wish. Deep into Virginia and Maryland.

Whereas Baltimore's Metro has a paltry 14 stops that don't go anywhere I want to go.

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NoFunPat t1_iymn1oq wrote

MTA Data shows major ridership decreases across the board compared to 2019 pre-covid numbers. As of July, it was 63% of 2019 ridership. For the Subway specifically, it took a major hit "Metro Subway ridership standing at 612,000 in February 2020, compared to 122,000 in February 2022.": https://thedailyrecord.com/2022/07/08/mta-ridership-numbers-still-struggling-to-return-to-pre-pandemic-levels/

At least in the near term, remote work is here to stay. I doubt these numbers recover to 2019 levels for at least a decade, if ever. It's crazy to me the MTA are talking about new light rail lines when there may not be any ridership to support the investment over existing bus lines. There's no way the projected ridership models from the North-South Corridor study are even close to accurate post-COVID: https://rtpcorridors.com/northsouth/alternatives

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peanutnozone t1_iyn3zuj wrote

I get what you’re saying. I think there is a threshold of ridership that can be used to justify transit but I don’t think that it’s the only thing that should be used to justify transit — whether keeping existing or building new infrastructure

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NoFunPat t1_iynlznn wrote

I'm not fundamentally opposed to transit and have lived in other cities with better options so I understand the value proposition. My issue is to be financially worth it you'd need to have more ridership than could be realistically served by running frequent bus service to that area and/or a significant decrease in ridership time. For the ridership numbers, the models are generous in terms of projections vs reality to try to get federal funding. The current models for the central MD transit plan were created pre-covid as far as I can tell. There's no reality where they will come anywhere close unless the state of MD bans all car traffic or the remote work trend dies off overnight.

Regarding ridership time, looking at the North/South alternatives, the projected decrease in "transit ridership time" is a max of 14 minutes between Towson & Downtown. The MTA shared in public meetings they already eliminated the heavy rail choice as too expensive/least projected ridership so that 14 minute savings is out. The next best is 11 minutes for partially mixed traffic light rail. The current time to get between Towson Town Center & Light/Pratt on the Red Bus Line is 45 minutes. The best light rail option would bring it down to a projected 34 minutes. This is before traffic studies are done and as we've seen with mixed traffic in the current light rail, I'm skeptical it'll work even that well. To make that same trip in a car is 20 minutes. You're not enticing new ridership with those kinds of numbers. Projected ridership times mentioned can be found on the 3rd row here: https://rtpcorridors.com/images/ns-documents/RTP_North-South_Corridor_Study_MOEs_2022-08-31.pdf

My two cents is the MTA need to take a step back and look at why all their other Baltimore transit lines struggle. Even pre-COVID, the light rail stops are in the middle of nowhere and do not save time due to being in mixed traffic so you get the worst of limited local ridership and limited commuter ridership. Penn Station isn't connected to any of the job centers, so the MARC train doesn't get used as a commuter rail coming from north/northeast of the city. As we're discussing in this thread, the subway has it's own problems with ridership.

In light of the uncertainty around what the working landscape looks now and into the future, IMO it'd be best to focus on testing options like BRT in the most dense city bus lines before taking on prestige projects. Prove out line concepts in the lowest cost & flexible option before taking on major investments based off faulty modeling. Expand those line out to further & less dense areas on the edge of the city as they start working in the core. If the goal is to look at suburban access to the city core to get cars off the road, they should be looking at commuter rail lines such as the MARC which go further out and have limited stops but actually connect them to downtown. The current north/south transit plan looks like more of the same mixed traffic light rail setup that hasn't worked.

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crusaderq42 t1_iyy7wvl wrote

THIS. Also, for the realistic amount of time it would take to implement the light rail project vs. BRT current transit riders would literally just have to give up and not have a functioning system for at least the next 10 years ,and then after a decade we'd get one MAYBE two light rail lines...

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MotoSlashSix t1_iyo9ofn wrote

I moved here last year and live close to the Broadway station. I can't get over how few people ride the Metro. The app/pass thing has never worked for me and the gate is always just open. But I really dig it. I hope it's not dying because - coming from a city of similar size and no rail - the Metro is a great asset.

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gaiusjuliusweezer t1_iypbv29 wrote

The Metro unfortunately is 1/6th of the metro it was supposed to interface with, so while it is fast at getting you from Owings Mills to JHH, there are simply not that many people with both starts AND origins on that line.

This wasn’t enough critical mass to anchor employment in our traditional downtown.

If we extend add another line, then you add all the people with starts but no ends, and ends on no starts along the current alignment to start using it.

The light rail just has one of the worst conceivable alignments you could make in the city so it didn’t add much. But we could also allow development at some of the those sites and improve things.

About half the stations are just unused parking lots on the subway too, so developing those areas is some low-hanging fruit that we are taking very slowly

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MotoSlashSix t1_iyr9tuq wrote

And yet, in a city of the same size as the one I came from, even this 1/6th is orders of magnitude better than no non-surface mass transit at all. I read about the original "W" concept for the Metro (along with the move from a robust rail system to buses thanks largely to GM's anti-trust violations).

I really wish that W idea or some variation would/had come to fruition. Along with the Red Line - and the obvious need for transit-based development - it seems like it would be a big help.

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Illustrious_Listen_6 t1_iyo3p9a wrote

Of course it is! Doesn’t feel safe, and there’s no real push to make it better. It’s just there. Decaying.

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Matt3989 t1_iyohvts wrote

Why don't you think it feels safe? I personally haven't ever felt like it's less safe than other cities' systems

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capscaptain1 t1_iyqa7sf wrote

I grew up in Harford county and went into the city a lot. Didn’t know we even had an underground subway until I moved to west Baltimore county.

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jheyne0311 t1_iyonryy wrote

I’ve lived here for 10 years and have never seen it

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vince549 t1_iynuuez wrote

This severe drop in ridership is another reason not to bother with the Red Line. Will anybody use it, since it sounds like what is already there isn't being used much.

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