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skunkbollocks t1_j991u7k wrote

There will be a crash sooner or later, but it will be interesting to see how NH specifically is affected given there is not the same focus on new builds here.

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Dekkars t1_j99zr1d wrote

I disagree with this video. Crashes we've seen have been due largely to excess debt.

We don't really have that in the current climate. Inventory shortages and people unwilling to give up their low interest rate mortgage will keep prices high-ish.

Prices may float down somewhat, but we won't be seeing a huge drop anytime soon.

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mafiafish t1_j9airjf wrote

While I'm skeptical of an imminent crash, US consumer debt it ratcheting up very quickly, so some of the conditions are there if folks' mortgages are up for renewal and new rates +general inflation pressures make some houses suddenly unaffordable.

Still, doesn't seem like that would be a huge swath of NH housing stock.

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FatherOfTheVoid t1_j9d4kr7 wrote

>US consumer debt it ratcheting up very quickly

Maybe this will push prices down over time. I suspect its impact will be limited due to landlords, especially corporate ones. I don't think they have many incentives to sell their property.

I'm taking out of my ass a bit, because I don't know how much of the US, or NH housing marking its controlled by mom-and-pop landlords, or corporate landlords.

My biggest hope is that high prices incentivize builders to produce more housing, assuming NIMBYs can get out of the way.

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Detritus_AMCW t1_j9aczjg wrote

I was going to say the same, indicators point to a gradual deflation that will take time. There is not going to be a sudden bottoming out of the market like in 2008-2009.

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NckMcC t1_j9ao30l wrote

People been checking their watches for 3 years now talking about a crash that’s impending.

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Cash_Visible t1_j9a7tgh wrote

Sorry to say but there’s no ‘crash’ happening here or for the majority of the US

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iate3pepperoncini t1_j9am6bc wrote

There will be no “crash” without a catastrophic event. We won’t see anything like 2008-9 again.

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Dull_Broccoli1637 t1_j9chdmx wrote

Will really depend on unemployment. With stagflation, crappy business earnings, rising rates (which the fed will def. raise), and record consumer debt... Something's going to break. We're just in the beginning phases of layoffs.

Will it plummet as much as it rose? Probably not, but a 15-20% decrease wouldn't be off the table depending on area. Housing is typically 15 year cycle and we're entering a new cycle.

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