fins4ever t1_iu4ba72 wrote on October 28, 2022 at 1:29 PM

Reply to comment by kearsargeII in Kuster Trailing in New NHJournal Poll, With Hassan Tied and Leavitt Close - NH Journal by slimyprincelimey

Well the NH1 and NH2 sample might be significantly different. I would think that either the NH2 poll is being too generous, NH1 too harsh, or more likely probably both. It is certainly a bit odd. Maybe there could be an ideological shift in NH2 also? I know Republicans have made big inroads in the north country and the Claremont area the last few years

SkiingAway t1_iu4fs4b wrote on October 28, 2022 at 2:03 PM

> I know Republicans have made big inroads in the north country and the Claremont area the last few years

Not sure I agree with that regarding Sullivan County, but as reminder: You're talking about the two least-populous counties in the state (and who continue to lose population), home to only ~74,000 people and around 11% of NH-2's population.

If every single voter in Sullivan + Coos Counties in 2020 voted Republican....Kuster would likely still have won.

Also, with Grafton both growing and seemingly shifting further away from Republicans, I'd imagine the ideological balance of the 3 counties is either a wash or slight shift towards the Dems.

fins4ever t1_iu4gkxe wrote on October 28, 2022 at 2:09 PM

Honestly the senate race has had enough polling that I've got a handle on where it's at, but the house races feel like such a black box to me. No idea what's going on with them and I feel like the only way I'll find out is watching election returns in two weeks

SkiingAway t1_iu4h30y wrote on October 28, 2022 at 2:12 PM

I agree there's been a lack of polling of individual races in general - 538's quantified that a bit recently, too.

That said, in the absence of polling, I would typically put my money on the person who's won the last 5 times, especially since it's not like they've been close even in not great years for national Dems.

(And the Republicans haven't gone with a candidate that seems very likely to attract moderates).

fins4ever t1_iu4hf81 wrote on October 28, 2022 at 2:15 PM

I would definitely say Kuster is the favorite, but she could be in trouble if there's a landslide, which looks possible. Honestly to some extent Burns' lack of visibility has actually been a good thing for him. I imagine a number of voters might vote for him simply out of dissatisfaction with the incumbent party, knowing little about him personally