Comments

You must log in or register to comment.

Lootcifer- t1_ivp01vx wrote

>Russia's commander in Ukraine, Gen Sergei Surovikin, said it was no longer possible to keep supplying the city.

>The withdrawal means Russian forces will pull out entirely from the western bank of the River Dnipro.

>It is also a significant blow as Russia faces a Ukrainian counter-offensive.

Russia getting dicked down hard

188

ShibuRigged t1_ivp1n0e wrote

Russia has just been claiming to be killing 8-9x Ukrainian soldiers in Kherson (2-3x the established 3-4x defenders’ advantage rule of thumb) and are retreating because….

100

GhettoChemist t1_ivp380s wrote

You mean withdraw the ones that haven't run away?

21

jayfeather31 t1_ivp3a8j wrote

Another turning point in the war, hopefully.

20

86rpt t1_ivp7q58 wrote

They waited until after the midterm to avoid giving Biden a "win". Costing how many lives?

Also, it smells like a trap. Hopefully they tread carefully and secure the dam up north before they get too comfortable.

22

cgmcnama t1_ivp7u0g wrote

It's not covered here, but Ukrainian forces are wary that this is setup to be a trap by Russia. Leaving forces in the city and making a prolonged city battle. I think someone put it best when they said the situation in Kherson is "clear as mud".

160

Rucio t1_ivp9c8i wrote

Replying to [deleted] (#484,695)

Carefully I suppose. Shock and awe tactics work great on poorly defended logistics columns, but rooting out dug in soldiers in building to building fighting is painful.

13

wg1987 t1_ivpb7w5 wrote

Replying to 86rpt (#484,605)

I think they were also waiting because they were hoping for a red wave and counting on Republicans to cut off the flow of aid to Ukraine.

29

ACertainKindOfStupid t1_ivpbp43 wrote

Part of me thinks Russia will bomb the city, when Ukrainians take the city and concentrate.

I hope UKR forces forsee this possibility.

11

Thansoli t1_ivpcbgp wrote

Replying to cgmcnama (#484,613)

Exactly. Why is the MSM taking the word of Russian commanders and the Russian Defense Minister as 100% truth in this case. Anyone with half a brain knows that using the media to deploy disinformation is a virtually free tool that can produce great returns. I'm glad to also be reading that Ukrainian forces are taking this news with a *giant* grain of salt.

14

LystAP t1_ivpf0i0 wrote

Replying to cgmcnama (#484,613)

During WW2, when the Soviets pulled out of Kiev/Kyiv, they rigged buildings to explode when the Germans moved in to occupy the city. So it’s reasonable to suspect a trap.

66

redvelvetcake42 t1_ivphlgt wrote

This is a far bigger thing than we realize right now. This basically means they have to move troops to hold Crimea. They can't hold the territory they want so I'm waiting to see if they can keep the land bridge to Crimea. This is not good.

Edit: Russian boys out here mad that they're army is getting flexed on. Stay mad boys, your entire history always ends with "and so Russia fell apart".

−4

Particular-Board2328 t1_ivpm9db wrote

Putin is worried about Crimea and is pulling troops back to block the coming attack.

2

jaemoon7 t1_ivpnzig wrote

Replying to Bagellord (#485,389)

Think you’re underestimating how huge and unnecessary the arms race during the Cold War was. Both USA and USSR stockpiled such an insane amount of weapons.

6

Talentless-Horton-T t1_ivpoxhi wrote

this is a special retreat operation being conducted by the highest caliber of troops

8

Panaka t1_ivppgis wrote

Replying to Bagellord (#485,389)

There have been some reports that the Russians have been using S300s to hit ground based targets. If that is true, they’ve got plenty in reserve to just keep slinging at the Ukrainians.

It’s gonna be an interesting Winter and Spring.

3

AGVann t1_ivppuyw wrote

Replying to Bagellord (#485,643)

They bought Shahed drones from Iran and an undisclosed cargo from North Korea specifically to avoid further depletion of their national stockpiles. They can't commit everything to Ukraine because they still need to maintain a certain level of readiness all over the nation.

10

AGVann t1_ivpq847 wrote

Replying to Rucio (#484,639)

The city is full of civilians, and unlike Russia, Ukraine aren't about to Grozny their own countrymen.

Sieges like that can still take a long time. Sarajevo under similar conditions took 3 years.

If this is a genuine withdrawal - and seems likely since it was broadcast on state television - what the Russian brass might be afraid of is that a siege wouldn't even happen. The Russian units trapped inside would surrender en masse.

19

rmpumper t1_ivps5q1 wrote

Replying to wg1987 (#484,846)

That would not work. US will guarantee aid for Ukraine next year anyway with already passed packages. Putin's puppets would only be able to stop 2024 and later, but the war might be over by then anyway.

11

TheMrGUnit t1_ivpxkpd wrote

Okay. Now do the rest of Ukraine.

8

RoboSt1960 t1_ivpyx85 wrote

I bet the Russian troops are sick of so-o-o much winning!

6

jawnyman t1_ivpzd3l wrote

One thing that should be pointed out is that this is how Russia has won wars in the past. It likely happened to other invaders before Napoleon, but that’s the first I can think of. They did it to the Nazi’s as well.

Withdraw troops from a city in the winter, destroy infrastructure, thin out the lines/supply chain, and then start back up in the spring while flanking other groups. Putin and his military most certainly know this.

The only difference is that Ukrainians are very used to the territory, so it likely won’t work this time unless they deploy tactical nukes.

1

Jerrymoviefan3 t1_ivq5t4r wrote

Abandoning the entire West Bank still leaves them with about 80% of the Kherson oblast. Of course it also brings Ukrainian artillery closer to them.

4

radome9 t1_ivq9dod wrote

Replying to cgmcnama (#484,613)

A dose of paranoia is healthy in war, but it's been clear for days that the Russians can't hold Kherson. The Crimean bridge is still not repaired and their train lines through Zaporizhzhia oblast are within range of Ukrainian artillery, so their supply problems would be considerable even if the Ukrainians had NOT blown up all the bridges connecting Kherson to the Russian-controlled east bank of the river.

11

shaokim t1_ivqcdff wrote

Replying to Bagellord (#485,643)

Institute for the Study of War assesses their stockpiles of precision ammunition as dwindling. They seem to be making deals with Iran for increased ammo and drones, in return for cash and captured western/Ukrainian arms technology, as well as potentially help with their nuclear weapons program and geostrategic partnership on an equal footing.

7

Ramental t1_ivqd1bn wrote

Replying to cgmcnama (#484,613)

Another problem is that there are at least 20+k Russian soldiers in Kherson and on the right side of the Dnipro river. We do not see columns of the Russians escaping, yet. Also these geniuses have exploded at least 5 small bridges on a supposed retreat already. Meaning the Russian troops will have even more difficult time to evacuate than they had so far.

Still, I don't see how Russia can play it out. Even simulating retreat would mean a weakening of positions. All Ukrainians have to do is not to rush into a trap like a bunch of sukabliats on dicktaster's orders.

7

Seance-Fiction t1_ivqld2i wrote

Replying to Thansoli (#484,915)

This article is reporting what Russia has announced and some Ukrainian viewpoints on the announcement. That’s not an example of “taking the word” of Russian leaders, it’s describing what they said. No conclusion was drawn from it.

7

millionreddit617 t1_ivqn9g5 wrote

Replying to jaemoon7 (#485,631)

I think you’re underestimating how 50 years of poor storage can affect stockpiles.

They’re having to buy missiles and drones from Iran and artillery shells from N Korea for a reason…

6

ErikTheAngry t1_ivqpjx5 wrote

Replying to millionreddit617 (#487,632)

Soviet/RF battle doctrines:

Sustained artillery bombardment first. Flatten everything before the advance.

Armour goes in next. Flatten everything.

Troops go in to secure . Rape what you can, loot the rest, then get positions ready for artillery to move up from the rear.

A tactic unchanged from the 1940s.

38

86rpt t1_ivqtkw1 wrote

Replying to millionreddit617 (#487,666)

Outside of Ukraine, the US is the main country in this conflict. Thealso the main contributor towards Russia's defeat. Putin 100% did not want to give any steam to his opposition in the US.

It's a very realistic and likely strategy from the Kremlin... More like

"Not the main country syndrome"

Your comment reeks of a chip shoulder inferiority complex.

−1

86rpt t1_ivqu17j wrote

Replying to redvelvetcake42 (#485,241)

They will simply advance the troops that have been fighting for Crimea. They have very well been effective in their current numbers. Holding a defensive tactical position across a river is a fantastic position to be if thinking from a defensive standpoint.

1

redvelvetcake42 t1_ivqzra9 wrote

Replying to 86rpt (#488,004)

Edit: I read their comment as FOR Russia not FOR Ukraine

>They will simply

Let me stop you there, not how Russian military tactics work. Nothing has been simple for them.

>They have very well been effective in their current numbers.

You don't pull out of a major city and fall back if you've been effective. You don't pull from Crimea unless you're desparate.

>Holding a defensive tactical position across a river is a fantastic position

Absolutely not correct for Russia. They have limited supplies, low armor, low morale, dwindling weapons, untrained soldiers and 0 morale. Ukraine pushed them all the way to the door of Crimea. The Russian Navy even retreated. Russia has steadily lost ground and gave up a huge strategic city. You cannot use the water lanes there anymore. It's a disaster.

>thinking from a defensive standpoint.

To continue, your defenders need SUPPLIES. They are almost entirely cut off from supplies with that waterway being a supply shipping lane that they've lost now. This is an unmitigated disaster.

3

jnemesh t1_ivr17xw wrote

I believe it when it happens.

2

Lucius-Halthier t1_ivr5ldc wrote

Replying to Rucio (#484,717)

Best tactic would most likely flank the city to make sure that if it is a trap with Russians in there willing to fight block to block they just cut off what little supplies they could get. I can’t imagine holdout would last very long.

4

leprechaun71 t1_ivrq1mi wrote

Looks like they are advancing to the rear again.

2

GaiusMarcus t1_ivrv6ol wrote

Bet they left a dirty nuke behind.

1

socialphobic1 t1_ivry9dv wrote

Russian "retreat" still puts their artillery in range of Kherson.

0

Markdd8 t1_ivryxpn wrote

Good news for both sides. Russia was probably advised by India. NY Times article Nov. 6: Could India Help Broker Peace in Ukraine?

>In July, when a critical deal was brokered...to free up millions of pounds of desperately needed Ukrainian grain, India played an important behind-the-scenes role in helping sell the plan to Russia, which had been blockading the grain ships....Two months later, when Russian forces were shelling the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant in Ukraine....India stepped in again and asked Russia to back off.

India, which supports Russian interests, is apparently counseling Russia towards wiser action for its successful conclusion of the war. NY Times:

>The Ukraine crisis and the escalating tensions between Russia and the West are testing India’s tightrope act. It continues to buy Russian oil, lots of it, which angers Ukraine and the U.S. And it has refused to support resolutions at the United Nations that have condemned Russia’s aggression.

Kherson is too difficult for the Russians to hold. Also, giving up the city is a concession to the Ukrainians. Russia still holds the west side of the Dnipro River, with its access to the critical canal that provides water to Crimea. From a geopolitical perspective, it seems Russia's best bet is to let this war to slide into a Frozen Conflict, along existing combat lines. Halt further expansionist attacks, defend what they have taken. Russia is involved in several Frozen Conflicts.

The Ukrainians, legitimately, have high demands: Russia evicted from all the land it has taken. This includes Crimea and its [historically important Sevastopol Naval Base] (https://www.rbth.com/world/2014/03/04/the_importance_of_sevastapol_for_russia_33479) and all land Russia has taken in Donbas.

Is the Ukrainian objective of full eviction of the Russians practicable? Difficult question, but one thing seems clear: Only foreign military support will enable it. If Russia takes a defensive approach, backs off on provocative measures such as threatening to set off nukes or blow up the Nova Kahkhovka dam or escalating the drone bombing of eastern Ukrainians cities, western support for Ukraine's full goals will probably decline.

Russia will have to accept that Ukraine will spin off to West. Ukraine will receive militarization under western powers, and the country will get massive rebuilding (hopefully). These outcomes ought to be a foregone conclusion to all.

1

FightTheCock t1_ivsb5wp wrote

Now the real question is how long until Russia withdraws from all of Ukraine including crimea?

2

AhabFXseas t1_ivsb9r9 wrote

Replying to Thansoli (#484,915)

The nytimes article I read definitely talked about the possibility, and they had another article about that and similar misinformation efforts potentially intended to deceive Ukrainian troops about the situation in Kherson.

2

damattdanman t1_ivt2aqu wrote

Replying to cgmcnama (#484,613)

It's also if I remember correctly a perfect place to intentionally flood by blowing up that dam further up river. Also has been clear that the Russians are putting mines everywhere. So this isn't probably much of a win at all.

1

caring_impaired t1_ivt2bgv wrote

Or it could be a trap. Rumors of Russian soldiers dressing as civilians occupying homes as troops pull back. Rumors, but still scary.

2