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Artanthos t1_jdxg3un wrote

Think about how many jobs could be automated out of existence today by someone proficient with Excel or a well written database.

Think about how long this capability has existed.

Think about the rate at which it has actually taken place.

It’s less about “can AI do this” and more about how long will it take for businesses to adopt and integrate the technology.

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bullettrain1 t1_jdxhvan wrote

Very true. I’ve noticed lots of people use this argument for why their employment isn’t threatened anytime soon. I’m sure it’s true. Personally, I would find very little comfort in that being the foundation for job security.

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Artanthos t1_je0sc95 wrote

Some places will adopt the technology faster than others, and those jobs will be at risk.

But it won’t be everywhere all at once.

Just like software automation has been displacing jobs for a few decades now.

The biggest difference is, far fewer new jobs will be created. One of the jobs most subject to future automation is the people automating software.

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bullettrain1 t1_je0x1hm wrote

Yep, sounds right to me. I’ve been an employed developer for 10+ years, I’ll have work in the near future, sure. But I see what’s coming. And it’s possible that timeline is shorter than I realize. The people that think it won’t impact them are fooling themselves.

One prediction that stuck with me is this. Rather than huge layoffs in a short amount of time, we’ll see a 2% workforce reduction each year moving forward, and it won’t bounce back. That’s the most likely estimate I’ve heard so far.

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