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Apprehensive-Ear4638 t1_j1q0h6t wrote

This is so hyped and I'm trying to tamper my expectations but am failing to do so. Really kind of hoping the neigh sayers are wrong and this is the beginning of AGI.

Who knows?

Ready for something to materialize.

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EOE97 t1_j1q37fj wrote

It's the begining of "proto-AGI" achktually.

We will undoubtably have proto-AGI by 2023, with the likes of GATO2 and GPT4 (plus whatever Stability AI and others have in store).

True AGI is probably still 4-10 years away from now, late 2020s to early 2030s basically. (If there's no unexpected AI winter).

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AsuhoChinami t1_j1qlf1m wrote

What is your definition of proto-AGI? How capable would proto-AGO be of doing research, namely medical research?

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pre-DrChad t1_j1rsbn6 wrote

By itself probably not very capable. Working with humans it will speed things up. Narrow AI has already sped up drug discovery. AI is also bringing in silico human models for use in trials which should speed up drug development.

AGI is probably when it can do research on its own independent of human input. That will be a game changer

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AsuhoChinami t1_j1s2vk0 wrote

How common is AI in drug discovery now? Last I read up on it was 2020 maybe. Back then, it was common among new start-ups, but nobody else. Hell if I know why. New thing bad, I guess. How much time does it shave off the 12-15 year creation pipeline?

And I had no idea silico models were being used. Is that a very recent development or something? When I last looked into this in 2019/2020 it was still more theoretical.

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pre-DrChad t1_j1s4v22 wrote

Look up Insilico medicine, I believe they are the company that uses AI the most for drug discovery. They already have a drug for idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis that was developed completely by AI

And organ on a chip models are already being used. Full scale in silico models not yet, but like I said maybe proto AGI enables that.

Development shortens the drug development pipeline by like 90%+, and in silico models could shorten trial process by years. Go straight to phase 3 human trials skip the previous steps etc

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AsuhoChinami t1_j1sd254 wrote

90 percent? Do you mean that AI and organ-on-a-chip shorten the whole process has shortened the process from 12-15 years down to 1-1.5?

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pre-DrChad t1_j1sfgqy wrote

No 90% is specifically for drug development only. I don’t know the exact number 90% is just an estimate. But I’ve read AI speeds up drug discovery a ton.

And with full in silico models instead of clinical trials taking 10+ years, it will take 2-3 years instead. Pre clinical testing on the in silico model should take under a year, and then the phase 3 trial on humans should take 1-2 years.

So overall the entire process from developing a drug to getting it on the market could go from 15 years to under 5 years.

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eve_of_distraction t1_j1q7a3j wrote

As progress keeps galloping along, soon all these neigh sayers will be whinnying about AGI when it starts jockeying them for their careers. 🐴

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Down_The_Rabbithole t1_j1qonpd wrote

AGI can't come from transformer models. They simply don't scale up well enough. The T in GPT stands for Transformer.

Hence GPT-4 isn't going to be the beginning of AGI. Anyone familiar with machine learning can tell you this. Nobody is claiming that this will lead to AGI either.

This subreddit really really needs to work on misinformation and clearing some misunderstandings up.

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Neurogence OP t1_j1q3gc5 wrote

If you want more hype, check out this tweet by this dude, idk who he is but he is adding fuel to the hype train:

>GPT4 will be out soon and will probably cause a similar economic shock to one from Covid. Instant distribution with nearly instant adoption and nearly instant productivity increase for hundreds of millions of knowledge workers. Brace yourselves, 2023 is coming

Source: https://mobile.twitter.com/Nick_Davidov

Frankly, I think he might be delusional lol, but I love the hype and hopefully he is at least half right.

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will_dormer t1_j1qafh6 wrote

Why quote a random idiot. I know we all love tech abd singularity here, but still

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