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questionasker577 t1_j3p39gz wrote

Reply to comment by Affectionate-Food912 in 2023 Predictions (BUT WITH A POLL!!!) by AgginSwaggin

Don’t be so sure. Check:

  • John Carmack,
  • Greg Brockman
  • Sam Altman

‘s opinions on this. And these people are not only experts, but they’re on the front lines.

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CyberAchilles t1_j3p8asl wrote

None of them have given an exact date other than "soon." Doesn't mean by 2029, however, and they aren't the only leading experts in an entire field of AI research.

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icedrift t1_j3pc1rq wrote

I wouldn't even consider Carmack and Altman leading experts in the field of AI. The real experts are the researchers authoring papers.

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questionasker577 t1_j3pcy3f wrote

Agree, but I do think that building some of the most disruptive and powerful AI today gives them SOME authority

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Cr4zko t1_j3psa29 wrote

If Carmack says something I'll believe it. He basically invented modern PC gaming by himself.

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questionasker577 t1_j3pcz1r wrote

2 of the 3 have said within a decade

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CyberAchilles t1_j3pkk4p wrote

Source?

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Redvolition t1_j3qpht3 wrote

Carmack on AGI, from the Lex Friedman podcast.

i said a
couple years ago is a 50 chance that
somewhere there will be signs of life of
agi in 2030 and i've probably increased
that slightly i may be at 55 60 now
because i do think there's a little
sense of acceleration there
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NarrowTea t1_j3rcpar wrote

We already have signs that AI can write software.

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CyberAchilles t1_j3u4jgy wrote

You forgot the most important part. "I Think". Just because he thinks doesn't mean he is right. I think =/= is true

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NarrowTea t1_j3rcmtd wrote

Yeah but useful transformative AI is guaranteed.

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will-succ-4-guac t1_j3rni37 wrote

This is like the drake meme. Average prediction of experts? No. Three cherry picked examples? Yes.

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