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Affectionate-Food912 t1_j3owp8d wrote

I think if you look at the average prediction of all experts, it will be somewhere in 2050. Their predictions are our best bet. 2023-2029 is just not gonna happen.

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questionasker577 t1_j3p39gz wrote

Don’t be so sure. Check:

  • John Carmack,
  • Greg Brockman
  • Sam Altman

‘s opinions on this. And these people are not only experts, but they’re on the front lines.

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CyberAchilles t1_j3p8asl wrote

None of them have given an exact date other than "soon." Doesn't mean by 2029, however, and they aren't the only leading experts in an entire field of AI research.

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icedrift t1_j3pc1rq wrote

I wouldn't even consider Carmack and Altman leading experts in the field of AI. The real experts are the researchers authoring papers.

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questionasker577 t1_j3pcy3f wrote

Agree, but I do think that building some of the most disruptive and powerful AI today gives them SOME authority

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Cr4zko t1_j3psa29 wrote

If Carmack says something I'll believe it. He basically invented modern PC gaming by himself.

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questionasker577 t1_j3pcz1r wrote

2 of the 3 have said within a decade

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CyberAchilles t1_j3pkk4p wrote

Source?

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Redvolition t1_j3qpht3 wrote

Carmack on AGI, from the Lex Friedman podcast.

i said a
couple years ago is a 50 chance that
somewhere there will be signs of life of
agi in 2030 and i've probably increased
that slightly i may be at 55 60 now
because i do think there's a little
sense of acceleration there
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NarrowTea t1_j3rcpar wrote

We already have signs that AI can write software.

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CyberAchilles t1_j3u4jgy wrote

You forgot the most important part. "I Think". Just because he thinks doesn't mean he is right. I think =/= is true

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NarrowTea t1_j3rcmtd wrote

Yeah but useful transformative AI is guaranteed.

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will-succ-4-guac t1_j3rni37 wrote

This is like the drake meme. Average prediction of experts? No. Three cherry picked examples? Yes.

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Equivalent-Ice-7274 t1_j3pcm73 wrote

A decade ago most experts were saying it would take “hundreds of years” and recently changed it to “a few years or decades”

Experts need to be cautious when making predictions so they don’t jeopardize their careers.

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Ortus14 t1_j3pe8x9 wrote

I don't remember most experts ever saying "hundreds of years". Do you have a source?

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will-succ-4-guac t1_j3rnmm4 wrote

In 2013 most experts were saying “hundreds of years”?? We need a fuckin source on that one bro

Given that you already ignored one request for a source I’m guessing you’ll ignor this one too?

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Equivalent-Ice-7274 t1_j3rpeec wrote

Bro, I am an OG armchair futurist from back in the original KurzweilAI forum days, we saw tons of articles from physicists, scientists, engineers, programmers, philosophers, and other experts. I don’t have the time to research that stuff, as I am focusing on researching how to survive, and live a prosperous life in the coming age of AGI.

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will-succ-4-guac t1_j3rplii wrote

If you go that far back in the AI world you are certainly aware of selection bias, recall bias and response bias, all of which influence what you just said. So it’s not that the “majority” of experts said it would take hundreds of years.. It’s the majority of experts peopel felt like talking about on a forum you were a part of, that you happen to remember, and that people happened to respond to.

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Practical-Mix-4332 t1_j3pshix wrote

Even if it doesn’t happen by the end of the 2020s, the world will still be a completely different place than it is now, just based on the technologies that are already being commercialized now and in the near future.

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