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It‘s the capitalist endgame. The question arises: if no human workforce is needed anymore, who is going to buy the products from those automated factories? And if large parts of the population can‘t afford mass produced goods, how are these factories going to be financially sustainable?

Universal Basic Income, because without it people will mostly have no purchasing power.

So a very modest stippend for the 99,999999% while the few elites own everything?

They could start paying the robots then make them pay for their upkeep and cool customisations

You're forgetting the one core tenet that all actors in capitalism must obey: never think further out than the end of the next fiscal quarter

No, UBI will never happen. We will all just be berated for not buying stuff. If UBI does happen then consumerism causes more pollution.

Human workforce will be needed in the foreseeable far future. You have business owners, administrators, lawyers, engineers, technicians, etc. You need people to maintain the capital, and people to innovate new and better capital. You need people to operate the logistics of employing the capital and people to navigate the ever-changing policies and laws.

You're going to lose a lot of jobs with automation, but you'll see the creation of many. I just hope we as a society can make this gigantic transition by minimizing human sorrow and violence.

Lawyers, administrators, programmers, accountants will be some of the first occupations lost to AI (might very well be with release of GPT-4 next year). Anything office based will be on the chopping block. Artistic occupations included. Based on current state of AI and automation, manual jobs will be the last to go.

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Capitalism always creates bullshit jobs so don't worry.

We should stop money elites from existing. Nobody earned billions.

Makes a lot more sense when the 1% say the world is over populated and something like 2 billion is the ideal population for entire world. Wouldn’t be much of an issue with a population like that.

Workers will always be needed. Just like when we industrialized and suddenly 90% people suddenly no longer had to work on fields to feed themselves. So they learned new skills overtime. Answer now is as always better expertise and more skills and flexibility. Which means better education.

Jobs you listed will be first to receive new assistant tools which they have been receiving for decades. From new programming languages, IDEs, accounting tools, tools to go through massive amount of evidence and material, etc. And those jobs still exist. In fact there is more of them than ever. And they will continue existing with better productivity. Current form of AI technology which includes a bit better models in the future does not threaten it anymore than Excel did. No jobs were lost back then, no jobs will be lost now.

That leaves gladiator fights for the amusement of the idle rich as the most promising career of the 2030s.

Nope, the economy will be sustained by fights to the death for the amusement of the idle rich for prize money.

That and prostitution. A lot of prostitution.

A proof of concept robot is delivering food on a university campus and this author thinks that means "robots are replacing human labour for good" lol this has been used as a threat to the working class for generations it's an empty threat, if these jobs could be automated for less cost they would be, most advances in "automation" over the past 40 years or so was actually slave labour done overseas

Just hear me out! What if, just what if people instead of being more interested in the debate and feel like they are scoring points in a match or bring up communism because capitalism bad, they just truly worked to make capitalism better for all? Like truly work on it so future generations don’t have to deal with this shit. But that never is going to happen because people are stupid in general and rather do the bare minimum and expect a big change, so yeah the people that don’t prepare for the future deserve whats about to come for them

That is an extremely short sighted view. It is inevitable that at some point everything will be automated, and if some new need arises that will be automated as well.

Edit: people can’t seem to look more than five years into the future and call that forever.

Hahaha! Absolutely not. That's probably the most ridiculous prediction I've seen since the "Internet is a temporary fad" thing in the late 90's.

To think that white collar jobs are on their way out is a bitter blue collar cope.

Technology will reduce cost of living to zero. We volunteer expertise because it makes us happy.

this is why universal basic income will be needed when automation becomes ubiquitous. otherwise the automation will, as you said, produce more than there is a need to be bought.

the fact that there are so many billionaires hoarding wealth that do not see this natural bottle neck to unchecked wealth blows my mind. a testament that disgusting wealth doesn't necessarily imply grand intelligence. just a lack of conscience.

Someone's going to have to throw out all of the un-purchased goods produced by robot factories.

Let's see how that works out for you. We sure will be living in very interesting times shortly...

Looking forward to it. And who knows, maybe the Internet is a passing fad, after all!

You and I can't make a difference. The people who can are beholden by election donations from those who don't want change. Capitalist billionaires don't give a shit about us, the earth or morals. All they care about in more.

Cost of living to zero. Hahahahaha good one. Now, back in the real world.

They should pay the annual tax of the people they replaced. This is a bottom line bonanza for companies which give nothing back to the community. Less employment, but the roads will need to be repaired. Only a handful of workers will be required to maintain the robots and that's limited. People need jobs. Governments need tax.

Do you have any actual suggestions as to how to fix an exploitative system that is working as intended?

There go those job creators killing jobs again

You know, if two years ago someone said "art can be replaced with AI", I would have had the same reaction as you did. But here we are with AI art that is good enough to at least take the place of commercial artists.

My opinion on the subject is that we're all eventually going to be replaced with some kind of AI or AI-assisted system. And the last to go will be the service tradespeople. Meaning the person you call to come fix your clogged pipes or put up a light fixture. Those jobs tend to be more about thinking and doing based on the specifics of the environment.

For anything else, 95% (or more) of our jobs can or will be turned into a process that a robot/program can follow.

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Retired product manager in tech space, many products there devolve to zero costs. Digital storage, video chat/streaming, research, USB drives, couch surfing, bike share, community food gardens, 3D printed parts, medical apps, recycled clothing, with will and imagination living can be free.

So servitude to the state instead of the capitalists? I can't help but feel UBI is an extension of the problem rather than a solution.

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If any industry needs to replace workers with robots its the food industry. And I’m not talking about replacing chefs. Im talking about fast food

Credit cards 🤑🤑🤑🤑🤑🤑🤑🤑

If you think lawyers will let themselves be replaced with robots (who do you think sets the bar admission requirements?), I have some ocean front property in Arizona for sale.

I keep seeing business reporting saying this, but I ain't seeing it.

It's not going to happen just cause they say so. More likely they ship jobs to lower wage countries, again.

Guess we will have to do what switzerland (I think?) is doing.

Everyone gets a "base" salary, if you work or not.

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But they should keep raising taxes and cost of living on the under-employed and unemployed. Exploit us to the end!

More people did NOT vote for Trump than those that did vote and elected him President. Think of that. Yes, there often are good choices, but Trump was elected by apathy and angry voters.

Disagree. Manual jobs have been getting replaced at a much more rapid rate. Lawyers, administrators, high level accountants - they all require much higher level thinking than responding back with factual errors. If you actually see their job description, you'll know it isn't possible in the near future. It's not about pulling data from the Internet and forming speeches.

Yes, let's see. You seem so convinced but AI will merely become a tool for use for white collar jobs. And the advent of AI will shift jobs to another field, not get rid of them altogether.

Wow that’s a dark headline!

Nope. This is more equivalent to saying the Internet will get rid of jobs. AI is going to cause a massive shift in the job market, but it won't make jobs irrelevant. The Internet caused a massive increase in tech jobs.

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Japan has far more automation than the US when it comes to every day life and they don’t have problems with paying human workers. From food vendor cafes to hotels. Why in the US, is this used as a threat to increasing pay or better working conditions?

You are applying normalcy bias to new technology (AI). It has been always normal for manual labour to be replaced by technology. This time the technology is more suited to replace office based jobs. The learning data is there, easily obtainable.

Robots are doing jobs that ceo's can't convince people to do for shit pay

Ala the film version of the Running Man.

People can’t abuse robots like they do humans. Lol

Eh, I work in art/design and AI is a fantastic tool. But it won't replace me any more than something like Unreal engine has replaced me.

If you're not in professional art, you just can't know; and if you are in professional art, I'd be curious to know why you'd see AI as a legitimate threat.

Non-artists' reactions to AI are strangely reminiscent of non-artists' reaction to early 3D modeling software.

It's time we start seriously considering how we change our economic systems to serve us in the future, because robots are coming for nearly every job.

All of the easy jobs to automate left the USA for China 30 years ago. They are all coming back and going to be done by robots.

If we're changing the political system anyway, what's wrong with socialism/communism?

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Ideally, there would be effective corporate tax rates to balance out the amount of revenue they're vacuuming out of circulation without the need to pay human workers. But I really think most people would be artists or gardeners or craftspeople, given the chance, so we'd return to more of a pre-industrialization saturation of small businesses. UBI would allow people to comfortably take up professions like cobbling and woodworking and shut-in poet laureate without the economy trying to chase them into more financially weighty careers.

We end up with better artists that way, as well. It's easier to practice when you're not worried about starving or freezing or getting medication, but also, people who are good at one difficult skill are usually good at another difficult skill. Mathematicians are frequently also musicians of notable skill -- but math pays exponentially better, so they almost invariably choose math, even when it's not the kind of math they want to do. And I really, really do not blame them.

So if we're following the Thomas Jefferson path of war -> math and science -> arts? We're nearly there, lads.

If its a job that need no skills than so be it.

I think the singularity is going to be sadder than expected......

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Could I interest you in an idea called Universal Basic Ownership?

Crap articles are what I expect from Barrons.

do you have an alternative ?

There are already many people using online accounting and legal services. And while there is probably a human in there somewhere, largely its using automated systems.

There are a bunch of white collar jobs that are very repetitive and based on well defined rules that are easy to be automated. Law clerks, accounting, are 2 of the easiest.

Yeah: Europe.

The majority of legal work involves clerks doing paperwork and research to locate precedents etc which is all automatable (and is going online rapidly), things that require an actual lawyer and a face to face meeting, or a court room, is the minority.

The same applies to accounting. So much of that is very well defined and the rules very well known, more and more of the clerical side of accounting (which is a huge percentage of the job) is going online and automated. There is certainly a moderate amount which is much more complex and requires human intervention, but its still a minority of the work.

you planning on running overseas to get a benefit in Europe instead ?

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I mean the European system. Which is better than America's. But you already knew that. You just want to be the bad faith aggro troll. Props to you

FFS - nothing there was a "bad faith aggro troll", other than your defensiveness.

I was merely stating that Europe will be forced to go the UBI route as well as AI & automation becomes more capable and moves into more and more jobs.

Certainly European nations are much more likely to start using some form of UBI well before the USA does, and their social welfare system is likely to transition in the direction increasingly over the next couple of decades.

Offices used to be full of book keepers with paper ledgers. All shops employed them, in fact every business need them. Every improvement in technology has either reduced the number of people needed to do the work, or increased the efficiency of the workers, allowing them to achieve more. This has been going on since the start of the industrial age and is still continuing. The percentage of people employed in agriculture is at an all time low. There's nothing to indicate this trend won't continue unabated, and advanced AI will be yet another step change impacting a variety of jobs.

We produce entertainment more people now than ever before produce content we consume with our eyes and brain. Why do we need somebody to flip burgers ? Or better question why do we need to consume burger flipping garbage food?

You are talking about the might be. You asked me about now. Right now, European citizens are better off healthier and happier than a US citizen.

the discussion was about UBI, something that doesn't already exist very widely, so the discussion was clearly about the future and "might be".

and you still haven't provided an alternative to UBI, which is what I asked about before you got so aggro.

And Yes, I know that much/most of the western world take care of their citizens better than the USA, but that was never part of the discussion.

You're trying to attack UBI but all you did was describe modern day capitalism as is. 😂

"The 1% can own everything as long as somebody gets less peanut scraps than me. If everyone gets the same amount of scraps then those other recipients are the problem"

That's fine. Sounds like we're in fundamental agreement tbh. My point was I would prefer that the US pursue the "European" style before it pursued UBI.

Imagine if we had robots making cheap, readily available, healthy food...

I dont know. A robot isnt gonna be fighting for your case in court lol. If anything most of these AI algorithms end up being incredibly biased (ie racist) when it comes to criminal behavior.

Also, electric cars rarely need a mechanic anymore 😂

It might eventually. Though it will be preparing paperwork/precedents/defense in 2025.

I dont know man. Something feels off about handing my liberty away to a robot to decide. I get robocop vibes 😅 doesnt help i live in a country ruled by a dictator

People by definition earned billions. What are you even saying lmao

> capitalism better for all

By definition, that is impossible. Capitalism is defined as the use of capital to generate a return in the form of profit. It is legislated greed. If you emphasize the greater good (reducing profits to distribute wealth), it is no longer capitalism.

People are lazy AF, call ins app the time. Looking for handouts.

You’re making too much sense, I have to ask you to stop.

Well.. when you have robots taking the jobs of humans that's less money that has to be paid out. More robot, less employees and less complaints

gold-pressed latinum

Thus is why UBI is so important to setup now, before it's too late.

You know, I think that it didn't used to be that way so much. It started in the 80's when IBM shifted from pensions to retirement accounts. Pensions were funded out of future profits. All of a sudden, there was this massive amount of wealth being managed by third parties, giving those third parties, who created their own wealth by shifting that wealth around - a lot- , incredible consolidated influence out of proportion to the amount of stock held over the actions of corporations. Dividends were no longer an important vehicle for returning value to shareholders because it was contrary to the money managers' goal of creating return by churning holdings in their managed portfolio.

The thing is, if UBI is just like the status quo, it won‘t change anything.

How boring are you that there's that there's NOTHING ELSE you could be doing without a 40 hour job you hate cause having a roof is pretty cool?

The whole point is that as work becomes less of a "one missed check from homelessness necessity" you can hold out for a job you want. Or start that business with a little breathing room. Or take up art and persue that. The possibilities are endless, while nobody has been able to provide an alternative solution to the very real breakneck pace to automation except accepting our inevitable tumble cause "durr change scary" even though (by your own admission) NOTHING WOULD FUCKING CHANGE except the ability to escape abusive working conditions.

What the hell is it with Americans that the only acceptable system is being broke, abused, and trapped in shit work where management knows they can do ANYTHING AT ALL? Really though, we know the answer. Gotta uphold the power trip fantasy structure because you were lied to and told one day YOU can be the exploiter. Never mind that those people have been building barriers for decades and only 0.some% make it there, surely they'll make an exception for you, because unlike a billion other Americans you are the GoLdEn ChIlD oF aMeRiCaN eXcEpTiOnAlIsM.

AI is not going to create jobs. Its going to become more efficient in the next decade and spring to “life” right in front of our eyes. It’s going to be better at our jobs than we are and that’s coming fast.

There will be entrepreneurs who tack AI onto some traditional process, replace all the workers, make a few more bucks than their competitors and “win” that market. A couple years of that and there will be nothing left.

I don’t think UBI will work, when most labor has little value. Money currently is used to simplify exchanging items of value; however, if 50-75% of people have no value to exchange, except what comes from UBI, I think it causes the monetary system to buckle.

>if no human workforce is needed anymore, who is going to buy the products from those automated factories

That's a problem for their successor

Not really into having robots prepare my food tbh

no job >no money > no money spent. Checkmate capitalism.

Where did you get that definition? Lol My friend there are many models of capitalism not just the dystopian nightmare of USA. Communism obviously doesn’t work ( and any tankie that says otherwise I invite them to come with me to Romania to see first hand the consequences of it), capitalism sort of works, but we the fucking people should take action to make it better, day dreaming and crying over it on reddit or instagram while doing nothing will not takes us there.

All these articles fail to recognize the biggest automation already happened, computers and internet. There is more work now than before. This last mile stuff is really hard and will take a long time, in many cases it will be more expensive with maintenance/upkeep. You can bet companies will have better healthcare plans for the robots though.

How Dunning Kruger of you. Not getting the point of the discussion and being all smug about it.

"If I print off a Wikipedia page full of fallacies I'll never have to actually argue again, just throw a dart and start masturbating"

It would be an upgrade from who does it now

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Their customer service rating would skyrocket overnight