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VisualMod t1_j1kmxav wrote

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1

d_HOME t1_j1knc9a wrote

When will rate hike stop? July? Or Sept?

35

[deleted] t1_j1kpcia wrote

This is probably one of the most helpful post to end 22. Thanks!

199

SparrowTale t1_j1kpxln wrote

Replying to d_HOME (#1,048,909)

JPow mentioned this month that the target rate is 5.1%. Since the current fed rate is 4.25-4.50%, we are looking at maybe another two hikes of 0.25% each, likely in Feb and Mar.

32

tngman10 t1_j1kqg93 wrote

Lots of economic data to come out in the time it will take for the next couple meetings to arrive.

2

OB1KENOB t1_j1kssw1 wrote

Thank you for listing all the days in which I’m gonna lose a shit ton of money :)

30

whicky1978 OP t1_j1kszow wrote

Replying to Yabbadabba2020 (#1,049,586)

You know it could be that too. But wait till a day or two after because it seems like everybody starts buying the day of and then a selloff after that — when rates go up. I like to buy the dips for SOXL

6

throw23w55443h t1_j1kur00 wrote

If Dec CPI/PCE is good, they'll do 0.25 in Feb, if its bad they'll do 0.50. If its fantastic and the recession data is bad, theres an outside shot of a pause, but I find that an almost impossible scenario.

Then they have Jan/Feb data for the Mar meeting. Allowing them to either to 0, 0.25 or 0.50 depending on data. If you have 3 more good months if CPI and things like PPI are in the 30s, the feds going to have a hard time justifying a raise.

I think people misinterpret the feds hawkish talk for a promise that they'll destroy the economy to get inflation to 2% next week. What they need is the economy to know they aren't pivoting. Its signalling and for anyone playing the game its all they've ever done.

FAO food index is about 6 months lagging, fertiliser is lagging, both are on the way down so food should be following as should rents.

The big questions will continue to be services and energy, but i expect if you have 9 months of low CPI and the fed stays hawkish in the face of job losses, that happy little separation they enjoy from congress will get tested some more.

Heres an interesting thread about oil

https://mobile.twitter.com/BurggrabenH/status/1606459855170060288

12

PapaDragon_6 t1_j1kwpna wrote

so these are the days where i will buy put with all my life saving just like in 2022. thks

1

forthetorino t1_j1kwsnj wrote

Sometimes I just wonder, ya know man, if the Fed is thinkin about me too…

6

BillN9n t1_j1l3mu6 wrote

Lemme download that photo real quick. Now back to crying 😢

1

Kilv3r t1_j1l3rw6 wrote

So is it possible that May-June they stop with the hikes if inflation is heading down still? I am well aware that rate drops won’t happen probability any time soon.

1

Buildrness t1_j1l6rmr wrote

Sooo, ya'll doing strangles or directional yolo?

1

n2urface t1_j1l7e6u wrote

This is now the Lock Screen of my phone. Thank you fellow Degen

6

lonewalker1992 t1_j1lcrbv wrote

Thanks for letting me know the days I need to make sure I have sufficient lube on hand

2

Nervous-Structure725 t1_j1le7z8 wrote

Replying to MohTheSilverKnight99 (#1,051,814)

Pffft. I got this app figured out

. Save the jpeg and copy the link. Set link as your browsers homepage and save it to desktop with “!! look at this asshole” as title.

Then Set reminders popping it up pre market and intermarket everyday, also set as reminder for when on phone with wife.

Ignore all. (Especially homepage bc who reloads homeoage instead of adding a tab when you already have 1000 tabs open with at least 40% of them finviz)

I guess add one last step I haven’t actually tried Write across inside of front door the actual calendar (probably never look at door again then)

18

Plastic-Umpire4855 t1_j1lhccv wrote

How many 50bps hikes can you count with the count? 1, 2, 3, 4 Ha Ha 5, 6, 7, 8 Ha Ha.

1

StripperDusted t1_j1lqy9p wrote

The December read is going to be spicy hot based on the malls. I hope they are thinking about a hike before the 23rd.

2

Unknownirish t1_j1lxcl1 wrote

save this to my desktop as a reminder for stocks go down after but will likely be up the week par

1

Joey164 t1_j1lxy8b wrote

Thanks, now I know all the days the market is going to take a dump

1

Unknownirish t1_j1lxzms wrote

Replying to throw23w55443h (#1,049,907)

agreed. plus what the fed is really looking for, and this is going pass the 2 percent inflation, is an average of PCE. So far we are heading down, which is good. Don't expect rate cuts well into 2025, expect a hold on 5% rates

1

Ok_Lavishness_8001 t1_j1mr8a9 wrote

Great post, I will implement this in my strategies for 2023! Merry Xmas!

2

Nervous-Structure725 t1_j1mrcap wrote

Replying to BillyMad1son (#1,053,286)

Ahhahaha. I was wondering why she got that tramp stamp of Adam Sandler with a target around him.

Interesting idea though thank you— unfortunately she’s a Samsung user (ugh don’t start) and I can’t find a compatible talking digital buttplug that can recognize my face while eyeing it and remind me…

2

wlc824 t1_j1n0jv0 wrote

Screenshot taken. Thank you good sir

Can we get one of these for CPI announcements too?

2

armen89 t1_j1nl0yj wrote

Replying to OB1KENOB (#1,049,630)

FOMCs moving forward will not be a volatile as the last 6 months. Price action will happen days or weeks after fomc. Once current trends become well known they shift.

1

Adam_Axiom t1_j1nmocm wrote

MODS! Please pin this to the top of the sub for all of 2023 as we really do need something like this here.

I can also put together something like a “Market Catalyst 2023” schedule that could be posted. Then maybe members can submit new additions to the schedule for mod approval throughout the year.

3

HungHung_ t1_j1noh5l wrote

Ok so we are safe until February

1

Goosnavslakovic t1_j1nt4gt wrote

Replying to Mourinholib99 (#1,053,608)

Money circulates. For example, SBF donated to the DNC, many politicians opted to send billions to Ukraine, Ukraine and its citizens made heavy use of crypto, and guess how much of that FTX was involved with? Saying that money is going to another country so therefore not a problem is extremely shortsighted behavior. That completely dismisses money velocity which allows the dollar to be devalued through its circulation which can easily make its way back to the US. Remember MV=PQ

4

KyivComrade t1_j1o1ewp wrote

Replying to whicky1978 (#1,055,757)

People whos money is sent offshore to a tax paradise, whoem written off as a mysterious loss here. Money sent to be hoarded in a digital world by the ruling elite...they won capitalism.

Now of you happen to give some money to a normal citizen, one who actually works and produces something, it'll lead to inflation and thus is bad. Food, housing, everything has risen sky high...but me preserving 1/10th of my purchasing power is bad and "dangerous". Mr billionaire getting another few billions is good. 🤡

1

Mourinholib99 t1_j1o6ebm wrote

Replying to whicky1978 (#1,064,139)

don’t hit me with these talking points man. Of course to much spending can lead to inflation, obviously. 2021 was because Corona and the reaction (for better or for worse) needed a lot more social spending. my point is that this omnibus is extremely ordinary and will have 0 influence of the baseline inflation expectations.

1

InvestTradeEarn t1_j1o8von wrote

What are the top five reasons you use this? I can tell you the number one in my opinion should be to remind yourself that volatility will be occurring that day.

3

JGregLiver t1_j1ocycb wrote

January + any month starting with a vowel are meeting free..

2

thesavageinn t1_j1ojvit wrote

So calls all January and puts from then on? Got it 👍

1

Jin-Sakti t1_j1oxmy1 wrote

Volcker can do 20% interest rates , don’t be a pussy jerome.

img

1

Flat-Brush6969 t1_j1p8vc4 wrote

Replying to armen89 (#1,061,596)

that will happen on february first when the american people see that they raised it again and decide to pull out of everything and save their money when in reality saving it will only make the rich… (us gamblers) richer.

1

viperex t1_j1q3vo0 wrote

Replying to Noodleface00 (#1,050,506)

How long they hold it there will depend on the target inflation the Fed wants to reach. The question is will JPow hold to that 2% target or will he settle for higher? Some talking heads say he should look at up to 4%

1

Nervous-Structure725 t1_j1q4au0 wrote

Replying to viperex (#1,072,507)

Calen-what? What-der? What-what?

Oh registry of events by date. I’ve got that but it’s too dark right now and by April I’ll be done with all the space I have a place to add dates.

Sharpie and my other neighboring house’s wall is my fresh agenda for December. I fear the roof is too hazardous and wasn’t worth the lawsuit from the family on the other side

1

TasakaJintoki t1_j1qq39f wrote

Last FOMC movement was pretty weak

Will CPI’s still be as volatile as this last one? 10 point spike at open just to give it all back during the day

2

Efilkcu7 t1_j1ri7j4 wrote

Where did cha get this info from?

1

AfroDunder12 t1_j1zj84d wrote

I've screenshot this and will save it as my wallpaper 👍⛄

2