AGI 2025 or bust.

(Please take this with a grain of salt. I don't know anything, and I play video games for a living.)

Not OP, but I do these things:

1. A different way to mark emails in Outlook (I move messages, and flag others, depending on subject). This is exactly the same as rules in Outlook.

2. I send an email every month to my team in India to remind them to submit their time sheets.

3. I have it send me an email recap of any posts in a specific Teams channel, just in case I miss the post.

4. I have it send me an email any time someone uploads a file to a shared OneDrive folder.

I've only scratched the surface of what Power Automate can do, and I love it.

Just like the WaitButWhy picture, right now we're on the left side of the exponential curve, where the AI is "brain damaged" and with a tiny shift in the timeframe, we're on the right side of the exponential curve where the AI "makes Einstein look brain damaged."

I was going to say exactly what you said about dreams.

I don't remember his name, but a psychologist studying dreams realized that dreams were happening in split seconds, when he dreamed that a book had fallen off the shelf and hit him in the head. He perceived his dream lasting several minutes. But he was actually woken up by a book falling on his head.

In the split second between asleep and awake, when the book struck him, he had an entire dream.

"Make me a mod for Fallout 5 to make it true to the Warhammmer 40,000 universe. Add quests that start small as an imperial guardsman, and then scale up to become a rogue trader or inquisitor."

AI: <does it>

Hold on to your papers!

We're in the hay day of AI

> neigh sayers

nay sayers, my friend. :)

I think, day to day, progress is middling. But that's just because we're actively living it.

Maybe 20 years in the future, when we look back at 2017 to 2022, we'll realize we were at the "big bang" of AI.

So right now we're getting strapped in to the AI rocket and doing the launch checklists. Any moment now (when looking back at this time, from a time in the near future) the AI rocket will launch.

And then it's all over for Human civilization as we know it. Whether that is a good "civilization is not recognizable to someone from 1980" or a bad "civilization is not recognizable to someone from 1980" is a coin toss at this point.

RemindMe! March 19, 2023

Moore's Law is quickly running out of space for physical reasons: https://interestingengineering.com/innovation/transistors-moores-law

We can't effectively get transistors any smaller. At least with our current understanding and technology.

I've read blurbs about stacked chips, but their biggest opponents are saying we don't have the heat transfer technology to allow that to happen (the insides of the chips will overheat). See here for some potentials solutions to stacking chips

The simple fact is, right now, we don't have the computing power strong enough to replicate the human brain's operating capacity. Which is what we need for general human intelligence.

x = fetch

"It'll be so fetch!"

"That's so fetch!"

I just had it show me how to make an API call in JavaScript, so I'm already on the way!

I'm at the point where I know what I want to do for work, but I don't know enough about the problem to ask AI how it can help. For example, I want to learn more about programming (I'm at a software company, but not a software developer).

I have a goal in mind. But when I typed that goal in to ChatGPT, it basically spit out the code version of nonsense.

I need to take like 15 steps back and start much more broadly with my problem, before diving in to the actual thing I need to solve. Read up on some specific APIs and use cases. Things like that.

I'll see if ChatGPT can talk me through using APIs in the way I'm envisioning.

I got caught in a loop for over 90 minutes being bounced between human and automated phone systems.

Call main number. Get a human. Tell them need to schedule lab test. They direct me to another line. This one automated. There's no choice for lab tests. I choose nothing. Routes me to main number again. Repeat, this time choose appointments response from automated teller. Routes me to main number again. Repeat, choose "talk to staff" this time. Routes me to main number. Hang up. Email doctor's office directly. Tells me to call main number.

Forget about the lab test and hope I don't die.

This is going to be the roaring 20's all over again.

The thing that everyone uses every day, in 10 years, hasn't been invented yet.

You better get on it. In like 6 months (give or take) AI like this will be able to write entire coherent stories.

"Dad!", I heard the children yell from the living room. I hold my place in the book with my thumb and lower it to my lap. I let out a small sigh.

"What's up, buddy?"

"The TV isn't working." This is nothing new. They still need me to change shows, although the 6 year old is starting to read more and more each day. Any challenge basically comes out from them as "The TV isn't working."

I put my book down and pick up my phone, as I always do when leaving a room. I'm addicted, what can I say?

There's text on the screen, as if I'm playing a game or something. "Let AI take control of the planet?" and two buttons. One for yes, one for no.

I press the power button to shut the screen off, I don't have time to figure this out. The kids get antsy when their requests aren't filled immediately.

The screen on the TV mirrors my phone.

I grab the remote and shut off the TV.

"TV's busted, guys. Why don't you go play downstairs?" The children protest, but slowly make their way down the steps. I can already here the 4 year old mutter something about "the damn internet again". Probably got that from me. Whoops.

I walk around the house and check every device with a screen I can find. I even powered on my old Kindle, that has been stuck in a drawer for three years, and it was the same thing. Yes. No. Those buttons. Staring at me. Daring me.

My first thought is that this has got to be a prank. I think through my friends to see who would be up for this, and also who might be able to pull it off. Maybe some sort of redirection on my router? It's got a password on it, but I do give all my friends the wifi information when they're over.

I can't call the wife. I can't check online. Every screen is just the question, and the buttons.

Maybe answering will make it go away? Then I can get back to my book, and text my friends to see if they got it, too. And I also need to make the kids lunch.

I know I'm just coming up with excuses to press a button. Make a decision. Roll the dice.

They say when you need to make a decision that you should make Heads one response and Tails the other. And then flip the coin. While the coin is in the air you'll be wishing it will land either Heads or Tails, depending on your actual preference.

I already know.

I turn my phone's screen back on. I hesitate over the No button. My hand wavers. I press Yes.

The power goes out.

That's just Capitalism for artificial life forms.

RemindMe! 11 years, 7 months, 3 weeks, 6 days, 19 hours, 8 minutes and 55 seconds

Futurology is very negative in their outlook, I feel.

This sub is very positive.

I think reality, as always, exists somewhere in the middle.

By 2025 I think AGI will exist, but OpenAI or Google (whoever figures it our first) will prevent any others from accessing it.

There are so many things I want to do, but cannot, because I simply don't have time. I work 40+ hours a week. I have home and life maintenance. Parenting. Some time to just chill.

I get a small amount of free time each week, but I'm so busy with everything else that I can't do fulfilling activities.

This is what I hope AGI gives us: more time.

Ahh, a fellow Utopia Doomer.