Chaos, famine and death.

Some time ago I read another study from Israel where they rejuvenated people using oxygen chambers. I'm starting to think they are just manufacturers and this is snake oil.

Salaries will go to zero.

Text to image technology is improving exponentially so I see artists starting to lose their jobs or getting lower salaries in 2023. Animators, voice actors, UI/UX designers and other workers will suffer the same destiny probably at the same time. Newer techologies will start automating (good) music generation and programming during the same year, having the same impact as with artists but the following year or two.

The end of programmers is very close, but I think this was going to happen regardless of AI. Programming communities have always acted against their own self-interest, with some kind of cult mindset and ignoring basic economics rules, in particular those related to free software (software libre). They'll learn the hard way that more programmers = lower salary and sharing your source code was a very stupid idea.

Just legalize it and stop writing fake papers saying that it cures cancer, alzheimer, inflation and global warming.

People will gradually give all their savings and property to the owners of the AI in exchange for food, products and services. Once there's no more to be exchanged, mass extinction.

People who studied a lot = poor

People with physical abilities = rich then poor

2050+. The US will probably be one of the worst countries to live because of their "everything is communism" trauma. UBI will be rejected for that reason and probably any other help. Europe and LatinAmerica will have the fastest transitions to UBI based or similar economic systems. That's because most of the countries there already live in social democracies and don't have the american mindset. Bad side: UBI at 90%+ of the population will maybe end up being dictatorial.

Edit: grammar mistakes

First of all, the future is not for arrogants. If you get replaced fast, and the only alternative you have is to work in a lower social status job, do it asap. You'll have to adapt quickly to new jobs and opportunities as they get more scarce, regardless if they imply an attack to your self steem. I.e. I'm a software developer. I know I'll be one of the firsts to be replaced so I'm ready to do Business Analysis in the best scenario or physical work or other bad paid stuff if needed in the worst one.

Unless you are willing to work right now as a developer, it doesn't make sense to learn coding at all. Currently there is a campaign or movement, at least in my country, that states that "everyone can and should learn to code". It's a lie. Not everybody can learn to code and today nobody should. Coding will be remembered as no longer taught things in school, such as logarithm tables books or calculating the n root of a number on a paper. Expect it to be 99% automated in 10 years unless you are willing to code operative systems or quantum computing but those will be paid terribly bad because of the supply of existing programmers. Maybe 5 years left for this kind of job as we know it right now.

I'm not sure about investing on AI related companies because the open source version of their systems will destroy their profit. And for some reason there's always been plenty of people willing to destroy companies profits by implementing open source systems. You can see that scenario is generalized for Desktop Software right now. Also analyzing OpenAI products there are free open source alternatives, very close in quality and with no restrictions of use, that will probably get better than OpenAI's as time passes.

CS degrees have never been good at keeping pace with the technology changes. Maybe if you have the opportunity to study only for 3 years and then study by yourself, then it could be a good idea. This also depends on your country. I know in the US you need a master degree to work in AI fields but it's different in Europe or LatinAmerica.

Maybe some advice from preppers sites could be useful, just in case. Each contry will implement their own solution to this and don't expect UBI to solve this, it will have the opposite effect because imagine that almost 100% of the population depends on the president's will to get food. It will be more similar to a dictatorship if we don't address it in another way distributing the power on the people.

Finally, read, a lot, about what other people expect about this issue so you'll have a more accurate view. But don't limit yourself just to reddit's comments. You could probably find books about this.

I think it will be possible in 1 year or less.

RemindMe! 1 year

I hope you are right. I've always been a nerd and didn't feel comfortable around "normal" people. I studied CS for years at university only to end up working with the same kind of people that made fun of me in the past. They are here just for the money and studied at a bootcamp, and they are earning the same. I want that people out of the IT world. I'll be happy if they get replaced by AI, regardless if I also get replaced. Then I'll code just for fun as when I was a teenager and meet with people that really loves it.

ML experts are just expensive python programmers unless they have a PhD in Advanced Math.

RemindMe! 3 years

Wrong. Programmers will be replaced by Business Analysts that DO know what they want.

I'm also a programmer. Without AI the forecast was that most programming in 2025 was going to be low code or no code. If you add AI to the mix, the market will suffer a sudden shock probably before 2025. New things like DevOps will also be replaced by NoOps/AIOps. I think we should try to do as much money as possible right now before it's too late. Programming will be very specific and salaries won't be high, i.e right now quantum programming pays much less than web dev, because it's not demanded that much.

Most people currently starting a software related career at universities will never get a coding related job and they should join the market right now as juniors if they want to ever experience what working as a dev was.

Teaching children python is a complete nonsense and a waste of time.

I think Business Analysts will just write the requirements and the AI will generate the software.

The people I know don't even consider that Javascript could be replaced by Typescript or WebAssembly. AI replacing programmers is completely out of their imagination.

Btw I think the next victims after programmers will be other engineers like electronic or electric engineers.

Programming is not the future, it's the present.

Haha Sam Altman is crying!

Exactly. Or create artificial scarcity.

I think the problem is exactly what you say. People will need to stay busy because of evolutionary and psychological traits but they will feel frustrated in any case. They won't be able to get profit from what they try to do, or if we are talking about a hobbie, any result from it will be ridiculous compared to what a machine can do. So frustration from being non lucrative or from being insignificant compared to the AI alternative.

That's why the current artist crisis. Right now artistic skills give you some kind of self steem and social status. A skill not everybody has. Now that machines can do it, the market will go to the superior fast and free and spectacular alternatives (I think they are awesome), so no money to artists anymore. And in your social circles, once AI art is widespread ,people will move from saying to you "wow you are an art genius" to "meeh you took a month to do that sh*t AI does much better in 1 sec"?

I don't oppose AI but I think we'll need to find alternative ways to satisfy the needs of achievement, self improvement and social value. We could have infinite food, housing, entertainment, art. etc. but those are not the only needs we have.

No jobs. Because if everything can be made better and cheaper by a machine and also there's abundance of everything then it doesn't make sense to work at all. It wouldn't be profitable and nobody would like an inferior product or service for a higher price.

RemindMe! 2 years

Very interesting article. I couldn't read it completely but I guess that it misses that misinformation is a multiplayer game.

I think your premise is false. It will be just like a calculator, no incentives to do anything by itself, no need to replicate, no survival instinct. Unless it's programmed specifically for that. In that scenario your conclusion is true.