_foxmotron_

_foxmotron_ t1_j2tsl2w wrote

It doesn’t prove your point, because we know the actual number, and I based my statement on that. Making me defend that statement based on different numbers is the definition of a straw man argument.

I haven’t avoided the question once. I didn’t think this needed to be clarified. The data we’re dealing with is “number of murders per year.” Unless that number stays the same, or goes up over several years then a trend can be identified. Until then it’s a statistical anomaly.

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_foxmotron_ t1_j2t52t7 wrote

Hypothetically- On Monday you find a dollar on the ground. Tuesday you find nothing. Wednesday you find a dollar. Thursday you find nothing. Friday you find nothing. Saturday you find a twenty.

What’s the likely outcome for Sunday? It’s entirely possible that every day after you find a twenty, but the data you have suggests that MOST LIKELY you find nothing, and that Saturday was a statistical anomaly.

You can’t assume the worst, because of hypotheticals. You have to use the actual data available at the moment, and adjust when new data becomes available.

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