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Pro_RazE OP t1_j2ekpzl wrote

Just mentioning here in case anyone doesn't knows. He is the cofounder of OpenAI.

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RoninNionr t1_j2eot76 wrote

Knowing that a guy from OpenAI says it makes me excited and scared at the same time, because it doesn't look like a prediction but an announcement :)

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ReadSeparate t1_j2euf62 wrote

And there’s no doubt that he is aware of that look and of his platform, which means it IS an announcement

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SurroundSwimming3494 t1_j2euux2 wrote

>it doesn't look like a prediction but an announcement

I think it is a prediction. I mean, he literally says prediction in his tweet.

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civilrunner t1_j2fqh06 wrote

I suspect every year for a technology like AI will make the previous year seem boring by comparison.

This can be said for Fusion, autonomous vehicles, robotics, biotechnologies, quantum computing, EVs, and more as well.

Besides that we are nowhere close to the limit of current 13.5 NM wavelength lithography fabrication for semiconductors, until we get down to the angstrom scale chips will continue on their current acceleration in power especially for things like AI.

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HeinrichTheWolf_17 t1_j2en3ha wrote

AGI this decade.

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NarrowTea t1_j2fbow5 wrote

AGI before driverless cars.

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RocksHardWaterWet t1_j2fk3j3 wrote

I live in LA. We have driverless cars NOW and they are no longer operating on a provisional license. Waymo and others are fully licensed to operate and without a safety/backup driver.

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frogsntoads00 t1_j2fpv2x wrote

So why the fuck can’t Tesla seem to figure it out with the budget they surely put towards full self driving?

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Talkat t1_j2fuj31 wrote

Tesla is trying to solve FSD everywhere not on small isolated areas. Their progress is ramping exponentially. I think it will be solved on 18 months-ish. They are already focused on building the robo taxi

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RocksHardWaterWet t1_j2fqgc9 wrote

Because they are trying to use LiDAR. Elon says this is more difficult in the short term, but will be the right choice in the long term..

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Fortkes t1_j2fqam1 wrote

Driverless cars working in all conditions and all locations. Basically can it navigate a WRC rally course as good as an average Finn, at night while it's snowing.

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lil_intern t1_j2fiqr3 wrote

Isn’t robotics pretty far behind for there to be an AGI? Like wouldn’t an AGI need to be capable of completing any task asked of it

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Sashinii t1_j2ep0ix wrote

I doubt it'll happen this fast, but I hope computer simulations accelerate the drug discovery process so dramatically that regenerative medicine is finally widespread in hospitals next year.

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pre-DrChad t1_j2eup26 wrote

It won’t because it has to make it through clinical trials. It might bring a lot more drugs/therapies into the pipeline though

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Sashinii t1_j2fck9f wrote

Computer simulations will accelerate clinical trials, but probably not fast enough for 2023.

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pre-DrChad t1_j2ffcut wrote

Yeah but to make it to hospitals they need to go through 3 phases of human clinical trials by current standards, which can take up to a decade.

In the future we may be able to simulate human trials but that technology is not present currently

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Felix_Dzerjinsky t1_j2fls54 wrote

Also, beyond technology there's legality. And those things move much slower.

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PhilosophusFuturum t1_j2fd0k8 wrote

That’s why reforming the FDA needs to be priority #1. The good news is that we just made huge progress regarding the FDA process. It is now a lot easier to skip animal trials and do human trials.

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pre-DrChad t1_j2ff3vr wrote

Yes in silico models will help greatly with this. With AGI we could develop in silico models pretty fast

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SufficientPie t1_j2fkx46 wrote

Are you … not familiar with the reasons why we do animal trials? o_O

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PhilosophusFuturum t1_j2fll8l wrote

I am; but having safe medicines be able to go straight to human trials is still huge

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JVM_ t1_j2f3i99 wrote

All our systems that a slow human in the process are ripe for AI. AI probably won't take over completely but if AI can do the job 10 to 100x faster, the number of people you need to do a job shrinks dramatically.

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Talkat t1_j2ftxnr wrote

I agree.. but I think id rather have AI reviewing scans and results first

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lil_intern t1_j2fimae wrote

Why would you doubt it happening fast AI doesn’t seem to be progressing slowly at the moment

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Sandbar101 t1_j2fcg7x wrote

“We will see technology in 2023 that you would expect to see in 2033.”

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420BigDawg_ t1_j2exvow wrote

I want medicine to solve balding, quickly now hurry up

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SoylentRox t1_j2f8uuo wrote

I mean I'm just saying, I'd rather the drugs to slow aging down first. I wouldn't care if they made me totally hairless as a side effect.

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Effective-Dig8734 t1_j2f4opt wrote

😂😂

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420BigDawg_ t1_j2f6hue wrote

I’m not even balding yet but the signs are there lmfao

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Terraplex t1_j2etv8n wrote

Well, "sleepy" time is when the dreams happen, and this was the year when AI dreams got vivid and stylized.

The real question is not just when AI's will finally wake up, but what will happen when they do.

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Heizard t1_j2etot7 wrote

COWABAGA IT IS! Time to experience what exponential progress means all around us!

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maskedpaki t1_j2eyabs wrote

lets goooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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leroy_hoffenfeffer t1_j2fd5a7 wrote

Full steam ahead, I guess.

It seems that the human race is going to quickly end up in a Cyberpunk or Bladerunner future.

If we don't consider ethical adoption of technology, the elite will control everything, and everyone else will just have to suck it.

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bachuna t1_j2f7jw5 wrote

"Accelerate, accelerate, we are going to get there anyway!"

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the-powl t1_j2fdgxy wrote

I think the progress was already pretty fast this year. The imagination that it'll go even faster in the future is pretty uncomfortable to me. I already have the feeling that I can't keep up with technical innovation. I don't want to get left behind but also don't want to spend most of my free time in learning new things.

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Miss_pechorat t1_j2frvrb wrote

Maybe he's just conservative with his prediction ;-))

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RamanaSadhana t1_j2fj6vp wrote

What do you all think will happen in 23?

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AF881R t1_j2fj3wy wrote

Jeez I hope so. I hope for the same with all the elements of STEM.

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Denpol88 t1_j2fnc57 wrote

RemindMe! 1 year

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GlitteringBroccoli12 t1_j2et6rr wrote

Neurolink agrees

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PhilosophusFuturum t1_j2fdc06 wrote

Neuralink is actually pretty inferior to other BCIs already on the market

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GlitteringBroccoli12 t1_j2feog8 wrote

Such as?

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PhilosophusFuturum t1_j2fex2s wrote

Well most of them. Utah Arrays for example are more capable of neuron-level micro imaging and deeper brain monitoring. You also have implants for Parkinson’s that are more capable of DBS. Neuralink is a model that uses less energy, which is cool but it isn’t as effective.

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