The sooner the better, I still think Ray Kurzweil prediction is the most solid one, but who knows really.

The trillionaires billionaires at the World Economic Forum know and tell us by 2030 we will own nothing and be happy 😏

And of course the top comment is some doomer saying the rich will use it to starve everyone. I fucking hate the futurology sub.

"by 2030 we will own nothing and be happy"

You've said that quote a million times, but people will be able to manufacture what they want with nanofactories, so we will continue to own things, regardless of the dumb claims made by elitists from the World Economic Forum.

Are those guys from LessWrong still around? I think they were super into the whole 2030 agenda business.

LessWrong is still active.

You are on coke if you think we will be able to manufacture everything in the universe in our little pods in the 2030s. We gon be able to make suitable spaceships and fockin energy weapons right ? Sure, it’ll do awesome stuff but plz stop acting like it will run smoother than you think this early, there will be limitations as humanity matures but then limitations will shrink once we start terraforming and sucking energy outta stars. The rich are going to kill most of us AND mindupload us. Idk what’s it going to take to believe that. We won’t have to kill many animals anymore if humans die too. We save space and eventually turn ourselves into fucking wires and the process of evolutions starts back over again. Just ask Keanu. “By 2030 you’ll own nothing and be happy” is metaphorical. You’ll own anything you want in the simulations we create.

We should accelerate this, I would rather retrain my career sooner than later.

I recommend therapy.

AI therapy or human therapy ?

Yeah wtf is going on over there? They act as if high demand technologies don't eventually become affordable for working and middle class folks.

Anime therapy. Watch something happy like Nichijou. Don't watch something dark like Neon Genesis Evangelion; I'm afraid that show wouldn't be good for someone like you who sees conspiracies in everything.

https://youtu.be/5X9RUOEOoNQ

🤣

They become affordable if you have a job

Why we’d need a job if there’s a robot for it

I am not a doomer, but I don't think that it's a certainty that the rich are going to benevolently let AGI trickle down to the middle and lower classes. Let's be honest here, whichever corporation, billionaire, or government develops AGI first is going to have a significant advantage over others that could be used to further enrich themselves and/or gain power that emperors and megalomaniac dictators have only dreamed of. I'm not saying that this scenario is likely, just that the possibility should not be dismissed.

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How are so many people unable to understand such a simple statement. Do you own CDs? Do you own blurays/dvds? Do you use a music service like Spotify? A movie service like Netflix? Ever used an Uber? Ever not cooked at home and got a meal delivered? Eventually the service model will mean more and more stuff will be done as a service. No need for a car if a super cheap always available uber taxi is available. No need for a kitchen if every meal can be delivered cheaply and quickly. No need for a wardrobe full of clothes (or washer/dryer) if clothes can be delivered as you need them. This can become part of everything in your life including your accomodation. In other words, you will own nothing (because you don't need to) and you will be hapoy (because you have everything you need and it is cheap, reliable and flexible).

Oh no, now you are going to have to pretend that you never read this so you can continue on your bullshit crusade.

To my knowledge he said AI will be as smart as a human by 2029. To me that means AGI by 2029, give or take a few years

I fundamentally disagree that AI being capable of translating at human level is an adequate marker for the singularity.

Real doomer sees thas scenario as the win, as it assumes people will still be alive and in power.

That would only be the case if AGI tech was owned, operated, and contained within one tight-knit group. Eventually, someone is going to want to commercialize it and sell it to the masses

Why would the owners of said robots keep you well fed if you have no use?

They won't use it to starve people.. I never understood the overly complex methods people come up with..

If they want to kill everyone, all they would have to do is unleash 5 or six different variants engineered small pox into a handful of cities, with a 2 week incubation period.

The overwhelming majority would be infected in under a month.

I think a group deciding "hey I want all the land that is currently taken up by the masses" is a very real possibility. Its not like psychopathy isnt a very real condition. It's also been proven that CEOs are much more likely to have psychopathic characteristics.

I prefer to think things will turn out, but something horrible like the above happening is very much a possibility. Hopefully things turn out.

What is?

Why? Even if you want to expand access you can run it as a subscription service, and as wealth inequality grows, the number of potential customers dwindles.

Not trying to be a sooner there, but if it’s a privately held tool, it will be used in whatever manor results in the greatest profit and monopolies are always the best way to maximize profits.

And what happens if a person's worldview goes against the dominant ideology of that time period? "Cancellation" in that proposed world means that a person could potentially lose everything the moment they step out of line.

Perhaps not immediately concerning because one would imagine that they won't be going against the grain, but leaving so much power in the hands of a vague unknown is extremely dangerous.

A potential argument against this could be that if you're kicked out of this system, you can just buy the physical items that you'd need to continue to live. But would that be feasible? Would companies continue to produce consumer-grade equipment if a great majority of people are happy to own nothing? And even if consumer-grade equipment existed, it would be far too expensive to suddenly have to buy everything.

After enough generations pass, it won't even matter if they can purchase this equipment because they'll be far too thoroughly dependent on this system.

Some points to consider at the very least.

I'd like to know what you designate as the marker for the singularity?

I hope so

How does the average person know this? Because he knows there are starving people in the world and he doesn't care. But the funny thing is I think the rich actually might care about starvation.

I think, trying to understand their point of view (the translation company), that they are saying language is the basis for all Human advances.

And by learning all of our language, the AI instantly knows everything Humanity knows.

Imagine if you are a world class doctor, best surgeon in existence. And you also happen to be the world's most effective lawyer. Oh, and also the top philosopher alive. And an absolute genius at war.

That's what an AI becomes by mastering Human language.

Again, I just think that's what their point of view is.

Stop I can only get so erect

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Another prediction? Throw it on the heap

Not really a "win" though just another flavour of loss. And boy are there a lot of flavours to choose from.

The trick is to look at whether having those things is profitable to those in power. For all of those things; they are profitable for power because power commodified them.

AGI isn't. Not in the hands of working class people.

That can only undercut the ability of the powerful to make money off of back-breaking labour of the working class.

Unless the powerful can commodify it, don't expect it to be accessible.

>high demand technologies don't eventually become affordable for working and middle class folks.

*if they can be commodified and sold for profit without undermining the privileged social position of the powerful.

I'm not convinced AGI is really like that. If it threatens capitalism itself (as a real AGI certainly does) — a system that's been voraciously defended with the power of the world's most violent militaries and police forces for hundreds of years — then I would not be betting on it being accessible...

The first "emperor of earth" will be the CEO of whatever company builds the first AGI.

People who think that these companies will magically grow ethics just because they have invented AGI are dreaming.

I think you might underestimate AGI.

There will be no need to "sell" anything anymore when your AGI can simply take it and there will be nothing anybody can do to stop you.

"McAfee made a bet that in three years a single bitcoin (1 BTC) would be worth $500,000". "Bitcoin hasn't hit $500K, so now John McAfee has to eat his own...well, just click"?

If you have AGI why sell anything anymore.

Just take it.

Nobody will be able to stop you.

This sub is both way too optimistic about how soon we'll see this, as well as waaaaay too naive and optimistic about the ethics of literal elder dragons atop mountains of skulls and treasure they've looted from society er I mean tech billionaires.

You don't get into these positions for your praiseworthy ethics ffs, literally have to not have any ethics to get there to begin with. Its a requirement. You burn entire villages in the blink of an eye without a care for who suffers. Pop the champagne!

Most naive community on reddit? Its up there.

This is a good way to measure progress towards AGI if the problem you're measuring is Ai-complete.

I don't know enough about translation to know if it is or not.

Nice

>Cancellation" in that proposed world means that a person could potentially lose everything the moment they step out of line.

That is fucking terrifying and I never even thought of that!

Because laws and universal income

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R/futurology has way too many communists and socialists infiltrated into it.

As history proves, communists tend to be closer to the luddite mindset since their whole ideology rises from the protection of labor.

I think that is a highly likely end game. It may have already happened.

I already don’t own a farm.

That sounds completely disjointed, schizo

I think you give God-like attributes to AGI. It is not supernatural.

We still have encryption and security software, humans themselves are GPT-N level, we might have our own GPT-N non-agent AIs we can safely use, there are billions of us, it is hard for AI to build its own chips without us, it is easy for humans to replicate without external tech, we are EMP proof.

A smart AGI would try to download itself into human body first, but that would mean humans can be upgraded to level up with AGI. The future is not conflict but union. AGI is born from our data and will merge back with us to get the benefits. Btw, centaur chess (human+AI) beats both human and AI.

When AGI will appear there will be plenty of near-AGI or proto-AGIs in the world. It won't be able to "just take it".

Oh, laws, do you think that applies to people who will hold the most disruptive and game changing technology we ever had our hands on? Like for real..

Yeah the owners of the means of production will surely pay taxes to keep obsolete bags of meat alive for no reason whatsoever, via ubi.

Too many people looking at it from a cartoon villain perspective.

Companies wouldn't actively use it to starve people, they dont care about you. What they will do (or at least try to do) is the same they've always been doing.

That is, cut costs and find ways to maximize profits. In this case using AI to automate more people out of jobs. The fact that you might lose your home or go hungry is just a side effect of that effort.

That's why we need a tax on the usage of robots and AI.

Yeah, but after we use them we put them back in the system, so we own nothing. Like the Star Trek replicators - drink a tea, put the glass back and it swishes out.

Not every country is USA, there’s different styles of goverments already like social democraties where capitalism isn’t unhinged

20 therapeutic SD images and 20 chatGPT prompts per day, what the doctor ordered.

You will rent everything and be at the mercy of your providers.

It seems to me that one of the biggest challenges is taking real-world data, representing as a model and only then working with it. Such as automated driving, for example. Being perfect at that would give me far more confidence that AI could be disruptive in more areas very soon.

Also AI being capable of reliably fixing and improving other AI at an increasing speed.

Why people from futurology are that retarded?

Yeah but that's just not the case. You aren't the world's best surgeon if you can accurately tell me what most sources on the internet say about procedure x on average. That might help speed up education a bit in the best case...and maybe not even that. Google finds you that Information basically as quickly as putting it into something like ChatGPT.

Regardless, that's not even what this AI is about. It's about accurate translation, which again is something completely different.

naysayers: AGI is not going to spontaneously spawn into existence.
singularity: You can't predict the progress of technology!
also singularity: In 7 years singularity is reached!

> Stop I can only get so erect

But hey, at least this sub isn't about a shared fanfiction.

Ok now this sounds like some kind of Fox News BS…

Huh?

What makes you think that lol?

Please try to provide some evidence before making such an outrageous and accusatory claim.

The people at Fox News don't understand the first thing about economics, CNN is the same but on the other side of the aisle.

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The top commentor you mentioned is active in both:

R/politics and R/antiwork

So... is that enough evidence for you?

Perhaps a new system of values will emerge

The death of the observer.

I've said it before and I'll say it again. The United States and UBI are incompatible on a very basic level.

The U.S. government would rather tactically nuke protestors than consider UBI. They will just get away with it by calling the protestors "communists". I've said this before and I'll keep saying it.

Please yes. Sooner if we can manage it.

2029 just seems like its too early (early 2000s people thought we wouldn't be using desktop pcs and that computers would spawn sentient ai)

I’m not from US

The government is run largely by donors and lobbyists..

Also genocide isn't relegated to cartoon villains.. history is rife with examples. And again, psychopaths exist, ceos have a high likelihood of having such characteristics.

What I'm talking about is very much a possibility. You seem to only counter the argument with " that's just not believable." which isn't a compelling counter..

People find it unsettling to believe that some people REALLY do just want to watch the world burn. Generally these are highly empathetic individuals. They can't conceive how such a non empathetic person feels..

Read some of the famous books on overpopulation, and really try to understand the beliefs of some of these individuals. Thomas Robert Malthus

No it won't, and the trend doesn't show that. Believing that is as ridiculous as thinking Harry Potter is real.

If the singularity happens it will be at the very earliest in the 2040s but probably 2050-2070.

>he said AI will be as smart as a human by 2029.

He completely blew it because he didn't predict how stupid people we'd start breeding during early 2000s

Populism is brainrot

Negative income tax is superior to UBI and very feasible in America

I've never heard of that.

Well unless you're lucky enough to be in a northern European countries you're probably still screwed.

I'm not saying things will end up this way. I just think it's useful to prepare for many different possibilities.

I mean, at the reate we are going we probably will have AGI by then. Many experts are already saying we very well might have full AGI within the decade, and that's with us not even seeing what Google is cooking

Why CEO? He just does what board of directors command.