No it won't, and the trend doesn't show that. Believing that is as ridiculous as thinking Harry Potter is real.

If the singularity happens it will be at the very earliest in the 2040s but probably 2050-2070.

Better to just increase retirement age and/or the voluntary retirement age.

Depends on what immediately means. The same year? No, of course not. Within 30 years? Probably. An unlikely but possible scenario is it takes a very long time to achieve AGI and we never see a singularity.

Naah molecular assemblers probably won't become available for consumers until 2050-2070

Naah im not that worried about global warming, im incredibly optimistic that we're gonna solve it. It's gonna get worse for a few decades but it'll mostly be solved by 2060 and it's not gonna be something we consider an issue by 2100.

Yeah but that's a very small part of the science world. I'd say it's the one that is moving the fastest right now but making predictions about such specific things is hard.

No we can't cure aging next year, that will 100% not happen. That's not how science and technology works. There is not a single case of something being discovered one year and then have completly changed the world the same year. When we reach the singularity that will happen though.

Because over the last 100 years every single year has only seen small improvements. But they have gotten slighly larger because technology is developing exponentially. The singularity is when these small yearly improvements have gotten so big 1 years difference would be like going from 1900-2000.

Because getting to that fast a pace in technological development takes time, even if we had an ASI today we wouldn't see the singularity for at least a decade, probably more. We can reach a technological singularity without an ASI.

I can, society will look exactly the same but we will have made some small improvements in technology 🤷‍♂️

Every new technology is a part of the singularity.

It will change everything, but it will take decades.

I agree, I think we will reach it in late 2020s, which is what I said in my post :)

Flying cars is in quotations for a reason, I count any vtol as flying car too, there already exist several different "flying cars", some have already flown. Some companies are Kitty Hawk, Terrafugia, Moller International, PAL-V and Airbus.

If that really is true it's amazing, however the current fastest is only 1 exaFLOP.

Probably between 2025-2040 depending on different peoples definition of AGI.

You mean by the end of the decade?

This is my optimistic timeline. We obviously won't have most of these before 2030. These things take time, even if we had an ASI it would take years and years.

Someone has watched too many movies

Because 2016 was 6 years ago. Taking something from discovery to full scale commercialization takes decades. Graphene for example was only discovered in 2004 but it's in early stages of commercialization right now. So...just wait.

A lot. 3D-printed food is going to be a part of the singularity.

Also I don't think we need a singularity for infinite lifespan. I think we will reach longevity escape velocity around 2050.

No it's based on what a singularity actually is. In physics it's the point in a black hole when all concepts of time and space breaks down. The technological singularity is when technology moves so fast it results in unforseeable changes to human society. Yeah we can absolutely say the singularity is happening right now if we are looking at the bigger picture but that's not what the technological singularity is. Then it's just rapid growth of technology.

I think if it takes until 2150 it won't be a singularity. Singularity is a massive leap in technology in just a few years, so big of a leap we can't really predict what the world will look like in a few years. If it doesn't happen before 2100 then we will have improved our technology too much to ever see a singularity. We can still reach the same end point though.

Even though im extremely optimistic about the future and a possible singularity I can say with 100% certainty that the singularity will not happen this decade.