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When do you realistically think this will happen. Cybertruck, anyone ?

Americans do not need another subscription and that is what leasing is.

What they need is a 25k EV that is capable of being paid off, has batteries that last longer than 3-4 years, and is capable of being maintained at the local garage.

Lithium-ion is not going to get us there. Perhaps iron-air will.

The Bolt EV is $25600 lol, and has a Li Ion battery which lasts 15 years.

Get with the times old man.

Do you know what their profit margins are per car?

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Assuredly -ve, like most EVs which are not Tesla and BYD. Every Mach-E also has -ve profit margins.

But that is not really relevant to consumers. The main thing is if the company will still be around to honour their warranty in 8 years.

I don't think Tesla is going for the low cost low margin route, pretty sure the model 3 is the cheapest they are gonna get. With other manufacturers getting into the game, they'll be facing stiff competition for a race to the bottom.

Also their production capacity can't even keep up with whatever they are selling now, so I think their best next move would be to put focus on the higher end market and maintain their "luxury" brand image.

Edit: Nevermind just saw OP's link

It's confirmed, the only question is when (which if course could be years with Tesla):

> During the 2022 Q3 financial report, Elon Musk confirmed that Tesla has begun developing a smaller, cheaper EV that could be an alternative to the Volkswagen ID3 and Cupra Born.

> He said: “We’ve done the engineering for Cybertruck and Semi, so you can guess what we’re working on which is the next generation vehicle which will be about half the cost of the Model 3 and Y.

> “It will be smaller to be fair, but I think it will shortly exceed production of all our other vehicles combined.”

https://www.carwow.co.uk/tesla/news/5220/new-tesla-ev-compact-electric-car-hatchback-price-specs-release-date

I cant imagine what a cheaper car from Tesla would be. The build quality is already such garbage, paint overspray everywhere, misalignments on panels. The interiors feel and look like a 96 civic with a the seats lifted out for a few more hp. Just an absolute garbage car being sold as a novelty because of high demand.

25K at 250 a month ? lol

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try 25k at 500 a month with a 5k deposit over 4 years and even that would be a good car deal in todays climate.

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what planet do you live on that allows you to lease 25k cars at 3k a year ?

You'll own nothing and you'll worship the ground your very stable entrepreneurial genius' overlords walk on, and you'll like it!

That is such a horrible deal

Right now in Colorado a 25k auto loan with a $3k down payment and 60-month term at 7% would be $479/month, nearly double your "best guess".

I got mine yesterday. It's pretty nice i must say. I am glad i didn't drop 50+k on a Tesla.

Go look at the lease to buy options. That's whats on offer

6k a year is 24k over 4 years Plus 5k is 29k for a 25k car. That basically covers car plus a small interest rate

If it's lease and return you might get out of the 5k. But 250 a month isn't possible there either

Umm how about a hard pass and a citizens oversight committee to vet every corporation to ensure only corporations that are promoting general welfare are allowed to operate in Stakeholder territory?

Overlords shall bow to the only legitimate government and beg to be allowed to operate in our territory.

Jesus man, how many Tesla call options did you buy?? This is pure Elon-worship…

Not saying OP did any math of value, but they did state a lease vs the math you did for financing (“auto loan”), so you aren’t exactly comparing apples to apples here …

Currently the lease on a (just barely—$24,100) sub-$25k Corolla with $3k down for 39 months is $269/month direct from Toyota.

The same car financed for 60month/4.99%APR and 3k down would have a payment of $384.

All of that will be plus your local taxes and any fees of course …

Those numbers and offers are all direct from Toyota (and are going to be credit dependent of course).

Currently the lease on a (just barely—$24,100) sub-$25k Corolla with $3k down for 39 months is $269/month direct from Toyota.

The same car financed for 60month/4.99%APR and 3k down would have a payment of $384.

All of that will be plus your local taxes and any fees of course …

Those numbers and offers are all direct from Toyota (and are going to be credit dependent of course).

You're getting downvoted to hell. Guess peeps don't like options.

that 384 is over 5 years. I said over 4.

if you do a simple but incorrect extrapolation that would be 384(60)//48 = 480 dollars pm with the 3k down. Thats not really far off from what I said.

also thats just us prices

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the prices in much of europe are atrocious compared to the us market.

And your point is? You are still talking about the purchase of a car. OP clearly stated lease, and you can lease a Toyota around $25k for not much more than $250. So your entire premise is incorrect.

I'd be curious about what restrictions come with these 270$ leases

I imagine you basically can't drive your car over whatever arbitrary miles /day they set. In which case I wouldn't take a lease even for 150$ a month.

Next quarter. 100% /s

🙄

$269/month for 10k miles annually. $275/month for 12k miles annually. $286/month for 15k miles annually.

Any other excuses you’d like to find for a legitimate pricing offer? Arbitrary rules? These are pretty basic rules for how a lease is handled. And the mileage terms offered as standard (10k, 12k, 15k) absolutely are the industry standard.

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Our bolt is 250 a month. Just want to point out that there are already options like this. We got it 2 years ago and didn’t put much down

$250 a month is still not affordable enough to make a big impact. The Teslas they sell at this price will break down and need expensive repairs like any other car. It isn't like they feature modular batteries. Once it no longer charges it ends up in a scrap heap. Self-driving just resulted in a recall. More drivers in Teslas just means more garbage to throw away in the near future.

I don't want more built-to-break EVs in a scrap yard somewhere. They're built as tough as Hot Wheels. No wonder they're so cheap. Electric cars won't be effective for mass production until the parts they're comprised of are as modular as AA batteries.

Are you high? Toyota Corolla's start at $22K now. No shot a compact EV will be $25K and/or $250/mo. At least not in the next 5 years with current interest rates and residual values. Elon is just blowing smoke for the shareholders and stock price like he always does.

I don't think you understand what a lease is if you think that's a subscription model. Maybe more of Hardware or an Appliance as a Service assuming the maintenance is rolled in, but it certainly is not a subscription based model.

That's factoring in the government subsidy in many states on EVs, so it's plausible

I mean I do think cheap electric commuter cars are coming. Toyota Corolla, Honda Civic, ford Focus, etc but electric versions

He said a lease, you did a loan, but he’s wrong?? K.

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Leasing would cost even more, roughly $580/month for 3 years Leasing is more expensive in total. So yes, I'm right twice.

That's 800-850 credit score, yes. Average rates closer to 6-6.5%, but this isn't meaningful lol. We're discussing a car that doesn't exist

I've said this for quite a while: ALL COMPACT CARS SHOULD BE EVs. Leave the larger vehicles ICE for now. Compacts are used for commuting and daily driving, with the users expecting efficiency. It's the target market for EVs.

Pickup trucks and huge SUVs are what I consider the "forced EV" market- not quite ready for primetime but the buyers feel then need to jump on the bandwagon.

Once we get mass produced, widely purchased compact EVs down, the things we learned from building them would eventually spill over into larger vehicles.

BMW is in cahoots with Tesla right now to make some kind of ultra-cheap EV. Will be interesting to see what comes out of that. BMW bought up some kind of solid-state battery tech patents, so they have something up their German sleeves.

My issue with government subsidies is we are still paying for it. It's not actually "free" money. Throw in a curveball like a Republican getting back into the Whitehouse and nixing these subsidies, then the EV industry will stall again. Are EV's the future? Most likely, but we're still not even halfway through the early adopter bell curve of a 15% market share. We're currently sitting at about 6-7% so we still have a long way to go.

$269/month for 10k miles annually. $275/month for 12k miles annually. $286/month for 15k miles annually.

All lease prices for an ~$25k Corolla …

You are wrong twice. I showed you the math, for a $25k vehicle that exists for both leases and finance via Toyota. And leases are typically cheaper unless you are talking an outlier vehicle with seriously abnormal depreciation curves. So yeah, no. YOU are wrong. Twice.

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You are completely Ignoring the fact that Tesla batteries last at least 200k miles now with 85% capacity (13 years of driving 15k miles a year), can be upcycled into stationary storage, or recycled into new batteries with 95% efficiency. These aren't 2012 nissan leaf's that need battery replacement after 100k miles. Also Modular batteries are far inferior to load-bearing structural batteries, which is why GM is possibly dropping Ultium altogether.

Electric cars break down less in general because of less moving parts, and you don't have a vibrating engine that wears down the entire car. the only maintenance that increases is tire replacement more often.

$250 a month would make a Tesla affordable to at least 50% of the US population. The average new car price is over $45k and the average car payment in the US today is over $700. And can't forget that in 3 years after the lease is over, all those cars will be resold on the used market, likely costing new buyers with longer terms under $250 a month.

Of course any public transit like a train, bus or tram, or even bicycling is better than any Tesla for global warming and humans in general, But most of the US was built around car infrastructure and Tesla's reduce GHG emissions within this broken system.

"they're built as tough as hot wheels" Model's S, 3, X and Y are the safest cars tested by NHSTA. Remember that Y that flew off a 250 foot cliff last month and everyone survived?

"Electric cars won't be effective for mass production" EV's make up 5% of US sales today, and are over 20% in China and EU. by end of year it should be 10% in the US, and between 30-40% in the EU and China, by 2026 we will likely pass 50% of all cars sold being electric world wide.

Well edmunds.com is wrong then. Leases are more expensive because you don't earn the same equity, although you may pay a lower monthly bill, the total cost will be higher over the same time period. That's why they lease cars at all.

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You know very little about leases. While you can typically choose to execute the purchase of a lease during or at the end of the lease period, the intent is not to build equity. It’s not a purchase. It’s a long term rental.

For a lease, you pay a combination of the estimated depreciation of the vehicle over the period of the contract + interest + taxes/fees. You will pay minimal regular maintenance. Most leases are short enough to avoid any major maintenance, and leases are notoriously poorly taken care of by owners as they just hand the vehicles back in a few years. And that is generally with very few consequences, short of anything major.

For a purchase, you are paying the entire value of the vehicle + interest + taxes/fees + full preventative maintenance, major maintenance and part replacement, etc.

The value of a lease is nearly entirely dependent on the money factor (interest) and the estimated depreciation curve the leasing entity is currently using. A $25k car that’s expected to lose 40% ($10k) in value over a 39 month lease is going to have a higher lease payment typically than a $30k car that’s expected to lose 30% ($9k) in value over the same period.

Leases are not always worse than purchasing. It really does come down to a vehicle by vehicle basis, and is entirely dependent on what the manufactures offers are currently. It’s the same as the math for rent vs buying a home. Not every vehicle, manufacture, or market is the same or even static.

Lease or purchase?

Tesla prioritizes their mainstream non-exotic vehicles. The rollout of this vehicle would look much more like the rollout of the Model Y

But worldwide evs were 10% in 2022, so that early adopter bell curve is going to get smashed real soon now. USA is just behind.

Is the bolt running well?

If Tesla released a Tesla compact tomorrow for $250 a month. What would you tell friends to go for. The Bolt or the Tesla? ...and what would be the main reasons for you choice? :)

Are you like completely oblivious as to how humans act?

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we're on 60k miles.. it has been an amazing car for us.. probably going to buy it out come october. i'll talk to you about that scenario when you show me a tesla for $350 a month with 2k down.

This year I believe you'll see a compact Tesla for 250$ a month with 0$ down that will change the car market.

I will not purchase an EV when the most expensive part on an EV is 5x the cost of the most expensive part on a gasoline vehicle. And those batteries are not designed for cold weather or winter.

As a constant cheerleader for electrification I will celebrate it

Tesla would open up deposits on said car, promise delivery a year from then, and then five years later still have not delivered a single car.

I can’t even get my deposit back in the cyber truck and it’s been years

Tesla can’t fix the build quality and recall issues it has on current models they definitely aren’t rolling out a cheap shitbox that “changes the game”.

Tesla only decided to build such an entry entry-level vehicle to compete with BYD, whose EV sales exceed Tesla, and who has a much more diversified and integrated worldwide battery manufacturing system. BYD's bestselling Han goes for about $40k in the OECD, but they could conceivably sell the Dolphin in the US at around $20k after additional duties, targeted taxes, and price adjustment to the US market (it's ~$15k in China).

BYD is not the only foreign EV manufacturer who can, does, and will undercut Tesla if they get into the same market. It's only a matter of what Tesla's strategy will be. Arguably from some in the business, Tesla should not compete at the budget level, and instead remain a brand name like BMW or Apple. The arrival of low-cost players will expand the share of consumers who choose EVs in the first place, and thus the number of consumers who will later upgrade to a luxury brand -- thus Tesla would encourage its low-cost rivals to enter the US.

Curious: What Money Factor & Residual are you estimating to get you to $250/month (I’m assuming 36 months)?

Tell me you have no idea what goes into manufacturing without telling me you have no idea.

I’m so glad I pulled my Tesla roof deposit after 2 years of waiting.

….1.5 years ago. And they’re still not able to give a delivery date.

q3 of 2022? started? we aren't going to see that car until 2025 lol

Probably starting production lines in the compact car next year. Maybe later this year, but seems doubtful.

For Tesla to continue their planned YOY growth of 50% through the decade, they will need to start manufacturing the compact car in in volume for 2025. This year it looks likely they could grow 50% with a little more production capacity. After that, they need growth on a compact car since the goal will be to sell more of those than all their other vehicles combined.

Cybertruck may have taken later than planned, but they only got the casting press a few months ago, and they had to build the factory in 2021 and ramped up model Y production last year. This year is now building the manufacturing line for the cybertruck, and they are still ramping internal battery production for the 4680 cells. It's not really very late based on those factors. The new roadster is late, but low priority.

It's not happening this year, that's 100% certain. Next year will likely start production to maintain growth targets for 2025. They don't have a manufacturing location announced for it yet and may need to be built as it is.

The compact will be designed entirely for high volume manufacturing and they are going to need a bunch of casting machines for it. They will need it to be in production by 2025 just to maintain their growth targets.

It's still a car. We need less cars, more trains, more busses. We have the technology now for this, no need to wait next quarter, next year, next decade.

You want autopilot? The bus/train has a driver. That's a good paying job union job for someone AND 20-80 people don't need to drive.

A fucking global pandemic happened and they’re still releasing it this summer. Jesus.

So, Rivian beat them by years. Let’s see if any of this ever happens. You Elon stans are hilarious with the cope

Cope cope cope

There is such a thing as limiting factors such as factory floor space. They’ve been manufacturing at 100% capacity. They sell them as fast as they make them. Now that they have Giga Austin and Berlin ramping up they’re able to get the cybertruck underway. Bringing up Rivian is laughable. Look at the numbers of production. Why not bring up the electric ford truck while you’re at it? Because they made them in the dozens last year. Tesla is pushing millions of these EV’s out. The model Y is set to be the best selling car in the world this year. By profit it’s already the best selling last year. Want to talk about Rivian profit or ford profit on EV’s? It’s a joke.

It’s already here. Just not in the US. That’s what happens when your government keeps foreign companies out with propaganda. BYD had really good affordable EVs here in Asia (and Europe).

We have BYD here in TH. They are really good for the entry level segment.

Tesla got a strong head start in the EV market, but more established automakers are now serious about the EV market, and the latter have far more experience with build quality.

If Tesla releases a Model 2 with the current build quality of the Model 3, I'd be very concerned about long-term ownership.

Even if Tesla does improve its build quality, I'd have to get over my concerns with Musk's behavior and conduct, which is driving away (hah) some existing Tesla owners and would-be customers, but I digress.

Is it laughable when they’ve delivered them to customers ? This isn’t even speaking to the rampant, and to use your word, laughable QC issues that plague Tesla. Even the cheapest Chevrolet product has higher standards. I guess I don’t need to get it when despite every bit of evidence to the contrary, people still think Teslas are quality products.

Best selling car in the world by profit and on track to be the best selling car in the world this year.

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>Bringing up Rivian is laughable. Look at the numbers of production

"This made up truck that they made one movie prop of has way better production numbers in my mind than a real truck people own and drive today"

Yeah they're 5 years late on the Cybertruck and haven't even shared a concept of this car but I'm sure they'll bang it out in 6 months

This whole post is written like an advertisement

it has 0 insight into the EV market as a whole, completely ignores the fact that cars in this price category already exist from other companies and is just speculating in a world when Their Favorite Car Company is making this magical car that will do everything perfectly which it will because it only exists in your mind

Anyhow for people who want an EV under $40k that actually exists they make a Chevy Bolt that you can buy today, and note that Tesla has only ever sold a handful of cars under $40,000 despite multiple public promises that their cars would be much cheaper. Also they're 6 years late on FSD, 5 years late on Cybertruck, 2 years late on the Roadster. All products they've taken customer money for and not delivered.

Seriously who thinks like this

"I feel great at night knowing when I bought my car the manufacturer made as much profit off of me as possible"

Maybe just send them an extra $10,000 as a tip

So when do you get to stop paying a monthly fee?

I'm trying to decide between a 2014 Volt or C Max Energi! Would be my first hybrid, pros and cons to both! Leaning towards the Volt though.

writing an ad for a fantasy car from your favorite brand isn't "options"

What features are going to require additional monthly payments?

Oh, so you're brand new to r/Futurology?

Right after FSD is done!

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I have a shit-quality era Tesla, but all indications are that a new Model 3 or Y off the line from Texas or CA today are as good as any other automaker at this time for assembly quality.

Almost all of the recalls have all been software not due to assembly.* Except for a Model S bolt recall.

You don't pay for any repairs with a lease.

Complaining about the life of EV batteries is a very 1990s complaint. That's what they said about Prius batteries, but Prius went on to be one of the most reliable and popular cars, even for Taxis with hundreds of thousands of miles. The same is true of modern EVs whose batteries very rarely fail and are warrantied for 8-10 years usually anyway.

>Are you high? No shot a compact EV will be $25K and/or $250/mo. At least not in the next 5 years

Lol, you're so wrong, that it already happened, and you didn't notice. (This was before January 1st so this was pre-govt subsidies.)

2022 Chevy Bolt EUV - $239

https://gmauthority.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/Chevrolet-Bolt-EUV-Incentive-July-2022-720x482.jpg

2023 Bolt EUV LT – $27,800 (Before subsidies)

That's spitting distance of $25k.

It's very much the Mediatek vs Apple battle. Apple was eventually forced to sell lower-tier phones but they still make as much in profit as all of their competitors combined even though they don't have the majority of the market share.

What's interesting is that Elon said "FSD" was their answer to economy transportation and that a robotaxi would be next not an economy car. So this is Elon finally focusing back on classic hardware sales not autonomy.

What are you on about

People still take Tesla seriously? Lol.

Just buy a used Bolt or Kona if you want a small, relatively inexpensive EV, they’re on lots now. I’ve had my electric Kona for a couple years now and it’s the best commuter car I’ve ever owned.

Electric vehicles should be reliable and cheap to maintain but in practice they're regularly in the shop. I'm sure this will stop being a problem at some point but it's just weird.

I doubt they'll ever make a high volume low cost compact vehicle. There's no money in it which is why so many companies have left that segment. Tesla is never going to anything but a niche player that a lot of people lost a lot of money betting on. When it all comes crashing down it will end up being a Chinese brand.

Just need a couple more days

If Tesla doesn’t come out with a smaller, cheaper ev than a Chinese company will.

Haha. Yeah fucking right.Tesla Investor day is next week and they will be discussing the new platform. Tesla has over 100k employees making things happen and have been averaging 50% growth almost every year. They don't let up on that front and robotaxis, the new compact car and robots will all be in full swing this decade.

I’m leasing a $33K EV for $147 no money down sooo…. Teslastan maths not required.

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haha, you bought into a concept car meanwhile tsla investors are on hopium ?

sounds hypocritical but you just weren't realistic customer for a concept car.

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still, you sounded knowledgeable. very good reddit fill.

Tesla doesn't exactly have an A+ for build quality; it's like rolling the dice on whether you have panel gaps or not.

In terms of performance though it's entirely likely that the Tesla would be better but at this price... I don't know.

It's likely single motor, 20-30% reduced range, no FSD capabilities, and the same crappy interior or worse as they cut costs.

There are still body gap issues, interior issues, user systems issues. Tesla ranked among the highest (worst) for quality issues according to JD Power. With problems on over 226 per 100 vehicles. Industry standard is 180. Anecdotally I have never met anyone with a Tesla that was truly happy with the vehicle. Once we are able to get passed the cultish like loyalty they express so as not to have buyers remorse the admit it’s the worst quality car they have ever driven it’s only saving Grace is being a EV.

Tesla was there first but the legacy carmakers are catching up quickly. They're like Netflix - huge stock valuation based on the idea that being the first big disrupter matters when the barriers to entry aren't that high.

There's nothing special about Tesla when Hyundai and Volkswagen are already making electric cars that are as good or better and others are not far behind. These companies already have the capacity, the engineering staff, etc. and they aren't run by sociopath dude bros. Tesla's real value is a fifth of its current market cap at best and most of that is the energy side. That's why I expect them to eventually sell the vehicle side to the Chinese.

Explaining why it is late doesn’t make it not late.

It’s funny how the Model 3 is already there. Tesla wanted to build a 25k car in 2010. With inflation that’s 35k today.

The real problem with anything significantly cheaper is demand. They would need triple the factories at least to satisfy the demand for a 25k car in 2023 dollars.

When your contract is up?

Global pandemics and supply chain issues are not always easily predictable either. I am a day one reservation holder and it doesn't bother me in the slightest.

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Lol The Chevy Bolt beat the model 3 to market too. How'd that "Tesla killer" work out? Rivian vs cybertruck will be a similar scale of embarrassment.

I honestly don't even mean to trash talk the Bolt or the rivian. But to suggest they're serious competition for Tesla is just out to lunch.

If you invest based on the fact that Elon Musk is a terrible person you're going to suffer.

FSD, maybe a sporty performance boost, mobile data for streaming Netflix and whatnot... It's a fantastic business model.

I love landfills. I should work hard to earn the money to lease a Tesla for $250 a month on that new plan so I can utilize Auto-Driving right into a tree at 80 MPH. If I live to tell the tale, at least I'll get another one for free.

Thanks for making me realize where the "don't get updates on this" button is. Reddit rules.