Stay ahead of China?

What are they exactly ahead of them in?

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Semiconductor oligarchs are the perfect way to breed efficiency

In this case microprocessors?

It's ambiguous because china only makes the very low end chips. They are not a threat to the high end market.

The article does not differentiate. So yeah china makes a lot of chips, but not even the quality to go in a car, more like a toaster. Lots of em, but just the real basic designs.

>Part of the solution, he says, is to ensure the U.S. has enough immigrants to help fill important roles in the tech industry.

>“We need to be graduating the best folks, we need to be giving them a pathway so that they can stay in the United States,” 

Translation: We need to Fix our immigration system which has been unchanged since the mid-twentieth century. STOP HOLDING ANY FIX HOSTAGE TO ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION.

I mean Taiwan is officially the Republic of China shrug

Get ready for intel 4 core 2.0.

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Hence the onshoring.

It would be trouble, but temporary. Not crippling. Notably, even if China captured the factories intact, which is impossible. They would not have the capacity to utilize them without American designs.

Not just semiconductors, all the new techs and inventions are from China. China can grind their workers and pay way less so doesn't seem like anything is going to change.

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Is it necessary to stay ahead? Why not simply gain independence?

I don’t think their aim is to get ahead of China but rather not depend on them for chips.

This feels dangerously like the military industrial complex is feeding into the tech industry. It sounds like there's a lot of people, with interests in the sector, asking tax payers to support them indefinitely "cause China might catch up!".

Then if China follow in kind it's just a zero-sum race to the bottom.

The most patents applications were by the EU with 2.9mio patents. As opposed to China with 1.3mio and US with 0.3mio

Source: https://www.theglobaleconomy.com/rankings/patent_applications_by_residents/

https://www.epo.org/about-us/annual-reports-statistics/statistics.html#:~:text=In%202021%2C%202.9%20million%20patent,1.3%20million%20respectively%20in%202020).

Ah yes, the plan is to accept more foreign students who just happen to have to pay full price for college tuition, in cash. Shocker there, like MIT would have any problem finding enough American student to fill its classrooms.

Sue China for the cost of the Corona Virus escaping the Wuhan labs. That will set China back a few trillions

Cutting edge semiconductor technology. We are very ahead, and China is still struggling to access the means (resources, blueprints/patents, skilled labor, etc) of high-tech production and R&D that we have.

Their pseudo-capitalism under a controlled state lugs immense inertia and they're paying for it. Theft of IP has so far been their only valuable card, and we're trying very hard to make that harder for them.

This just isn't the case. China's operating model (esp. with regard to R&D) has immense inertia thanks to its state-controlled mandates and investment decisions. They aren't the ones pushing the envelope here. They are, still, a mass production economy of low/medium tech. And even that they are losing an edge on, as more and more shifts to Vietnam and Mexico (which they are trying to get a slice of through direct and indirect (shell) company takeovers). For all the tech blueprints they're stealing, they still don't have the advanced fabrication facilities, the laser tech, or many of the raw capabilities and resources needed.

I'm trying to find the deck from a great JP Morgan analysis on this that I attended a while back, but suffice to say China's main threats are their military pressure on key regional allies/supply partnerships, and their constant theft of technology polluting the market with vastly inferior (but highly consumed) goods.

Economically and strategically are they a threat? Yes. Technologically? Not yet, and with less and less concern the more we re-shore and lock down this advanced stuff. Grinding simple laborers into dust for mass production only really helps them churn cheap and shitty plastic widgets that consumerist Americans gobble up via Amazon, Etsy, and eBay. Future tech (military, processing/computing/AI, energy, etc) will be governed by things China simply doesn't yet have an edge on.

This is great for the US and Europe, because as we monopolize the development of AI and true next-gen automation, we can re-shore production and 'buy American', as our robo army of crazy neural network 'brains' will increasingly provide for us. Our one hurdle (beyond pro-competitive AI rollout/availability) is then the supply chain partnerships we develop. Steel, etc we still rely on China, so we'd need to find a way to patch in a new middle man...which we're trying with Vietnam where possible.

Also, Mighty's response isn't the most useful. Patent spam isn't a great metric for true quality of invention. China can churn hundreds of thousands of throw-away patents while the US might only file for 1/4 as many but put forth far more meaningful/impactful innovations.

Everything China is trying to steal or copy.

That’s a legacy advantage.

If you have to invest in who will develop the best tech in the next 20 years, where are you putting your money?

> They are, still, a mass production economy of low/medium tech

It was the case a decade ago, but not today, they are now a huge major hub for high end and deep tech industry.

Also the theft complain isn't so true anymore as some major peer reviewed reports pointed out that they are now the one publishing the most internationally cited studies.

https://www.science.org/content/article/china-rises-first-place-most-cited-papers

This is an important step to do that. It's often hard to be independent without being #1. We do this with our military, with our energy grid, and more. If we can be #1 then we have no need to rely on others.

People who are "ahead" usually get there by going through intense refining of supply chains, talent pools, infrastructure establishment, and more...the kinds of things that promote independence. When others take the lead, countries usually don't go all-in on independence because it's just cheaper/easier/better to rely on others.

People who shit on globalism are as uninformed/economically illiterate as those who thing globalism is a fix-all. The web is complex and independence is, depending on the subject, as useful as it can be foolish/destructive.

Americans don't even want to build this stuff, it just wants the profit from building it. The government has to subsidize advanced manufacturing because no exec would make that investment in this country.

Steal or copy?

What fantasy are you living in?

Who care how they get it, they are the worlds largest economy and their kids are all coming outta school as match and science genius whereas our kids still struggle with pronouns.

They have the US in the rear view mirror.

Any advantage we may have is just legacy and will soon evaporate.

We are lucky they don’t make cars, yet.

If we had legitimate evidence that we could hold against them, this might make sense. But if you're referring to the outcome of the DOE investigation, the outcome provided no actionable evidence. It's the 'best guess theory' based on investigation by the DOE. The rest of the Intelligence community has differing views on this, and no one has the evidence we'd need to credibly pursue remunerations.

And no way would China pay it. And no way would anyone lift a finger to make them pay it. The best thing we can do is work overtime to install Intelligence assets in China's scientific community to better monitor what's going on so we can prepare for or avert stuff like this. They do the same to us, only we have proven that we have far more effective safety measures and systems to keep our public safe at the scale we're discussing. And they have shown (not just with COVID-19), they can't be trusted with a lot of this shit. The majority of epidemics/pandemics in recent times (human and non-human) have come from them and their inability to manage public and livestock health, as well as dangerous research containment. So we just do the best we can to stay apprised/invested in those activities, and we plan courses of action/response if needed when we smell danger.

Maybe some FISH too?

The US doesn't depend on China for chips. It depends on Taiwan.

US/EU. China's economy is experiencing a period of burnout. We have chief control over the most cutting edge AI, which is expanding and improving by orders of magnitude, which drives insane network effects for all participating and adjacent industries.

China's certainly maintaining threat status, and their constant IP theft could certainly drive sudden leaps in progress, but we'll see.

I'm more concerned about China's global Imperialism, laying claim to natural resources/mineral rights across Africa, LatAm, etc, than I am about their ability to catch up to our leading edge of tech.

Hell, they've been trying for like 20 years now to catch up to our offshore/oil tech (which is very low tech stuff compared to this semiconductor shit) and they're still at best making janky knock-offs.

Edit-- lol you're the guy claiming China's 18 trillion dollar economy is larger than America's 25 trillion. If you honestly think every single competitive edge of ours is 'legacy' then you're really just playing the doomer.

Volume is still not necessarily the strongest indicator. It's difficult to see if this is a direct outcome of a 'more innovative economy' or if it's just the sheer volume. As we've seen in the US, academia is experiencing mass publication spam and cross-references between low-impact papers. It's entirely possible to see mass citation of a very meaningless paper.

As far as them being a major hub for high end/'deep tech', they just aren't to our level. I'm not sure how to quantify the gap other than in production numbers (and in the volume of business activity in adjacent/prerequisite supply chains) and they just aren't there yet with that stuff.

>Largest economy

Largest? Largest GDP? How much is that?

😀😂🤣

The only thing where your claim is true is largest insecurities and biggest ego. 🤡

Taiwan has very little to worry about.

No exec would make that investment in this country because we 'don't even want to build it'? Or because it's just been prohibitively expensive to do so here?

Don't conflate game theory over price point with desire. We absolutely want to build this stuff.

They're not the largest for one, let's get the record straight on that. They steal IP like it's their national pastime, without the West supplying innovation and buying their cheap shit their economic successes are going to evaporate. Combine that with their demographic collapse and it just looks kinda dumb for you to say all that...

I 100% think their aim is to get ahead of China sb be self reliant, and an alternative for the rest of the world.

It for sure is to an extent. But it’s not a bad thing either. The amount of control China has with chips if they try to just take over Taiwan is very threatening. Crippled with Chinas significantly decreasing population projects it puts us in a very bad spot in the coming decades should we not be reliant. I think it’s not just MIC but an all hands on deck scenario.

China has a real population issue in their hands. It will change inevitably as this rate with global change from China to other countries for resources and their declining population.

my knowledge about the geopolitics of the chinese market and its progress is limited, but learning chinese i can see how their writing system would be an advantage. it's so many things at once it's mind boggling and is the proof of cultural genius. they are constantly training on complex visual data.

I agree with you the quantity doesn't mean quality but that's why they use multiple methodology such as cited studies in others renowned journals, quotations in other research, impact factor of such study etc.

Bias still exist but this report is the most reliable to this date.

That assumption that independence = #1 is fraught with assumptions on the needs of the world market. The likelihood that the US can produce the best chips is high. The likelihood it can produce the cheapest/most numerous chips is low. One of those is worth prioritizing, the other is probably not worth the effort, even if it is possible. I'll put my money on impossible given the Chinese are much better at reducing costs.

Not sure what prompted that little rant at the end. I never once mentioned globalism, but alright👍

CHIPS act? What is it, a bag of potato chips doing standup routine or sumtin?…..

Tssssssk tsssssssssk

It can lead to a lose-lose situation where the choice is either massive subsidy for a resource which never returns the investment, or just giving up the industry to a foreign power.

There's a cool documentary about military computer chips, from 1998, called Small Soldiers.

China can’t tell the difference

It's worth mentioning, this industry is incredibly profitable

What if China takes over Taiwan?

False… in almost every way we OVER match them.

US is finished, you can barely hold elections anyone.

They won’t because we would go to war to prevent that because we need the Taiwan chips. If China started shit with Taiwan right now it would be economic suicide for them.

The United States is in a considerably better position than China right now. There are not many analysts that think China is well positioned for the future. Their entire economy is reliant on US business and more importantly the US currency.

Sure, it might be a totalitarian lunatic in charge of the United States but that would just put them on the same footing as China has been in for like…. Ever.

Lay off the propaganda my friend.

Also, China does make cars… They have for decades….

What's your opinion on their fast rising Electric Vehicles industry?

I wonder how America would ever compete on the low end. There are 10 cent Risc-V microcontrollers available. It's kind of wild

It is a problem, but consider this. Mexican labor is now cheaper than Chinese labor and they are going through the largest buildout of industrial capacity in their history.

Not to mention the rest of south east Asia is still dirt cheap for mass production.

Yea... okay...
we need the bill to stay ahead! but wait...
its not enough you say? we need educated people right?
Okay! but only idiots go to college right and degrees are now viewed as stupid?
and NO you cant have 10k off of your 145k degree lol.
This country is fucked. F the chips act.

6 core is standard since 2017 thanks to AMD… 4 more years for a decade. The entry should be 8 cores. Intel messed that up with e-cores

What they really need is people who are actually qualified for the job. Look at all those useless politicians, all they ever do is talk dumb shit on Twitter every day while getting paid big bucks.