TbonerT

TbonerT t1_j9bh2t2 wrote

This isn’t a pedantic debate. If the math works and the results demonstrate the math works, what more is there?

> However, the sample size is only large enough to draw conclusions on maybe a county level.

Again, this is simply incorrect, as demonstrated by the math and backed up by actual results from polls conducted in this manner. You’re wrong and burying your head in the sand. Their polls of 1200 people arrive to the same conclusions within a fraction of a percent as the actual results. Is that really so hard to believe?

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TbonerT t1_j9aap57 wrote

Yes, I’m familiar with that phrase. What you are seeing on insta polls is garbage in, garbage out. What you are seeing with this scientific poll is the opposite. I literally quoted previous results showing that their polls very closely match reality, because that’s what they do. What they do is data in, data out. Do you understand how that’s different?

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TbonerT t1_j93dlxx wrote

They link the report from the survey, which includes the efforts they went through, which I already mentioned, to ensure it isn’t some bullshit survey like you see on IG. This is how actual scientific polling is done. I’ve already given you two examples of how accurate this school is in conducting their polls. If you want to wallow in ignorance, go ahead, but please wallow silently.

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TbonerT t1_j8w45el wrote

Those are good points, but they are very broad and not applicable to this particular situation. This school’s poll determined that Trump would win Texas by 5.3% and he ultimately won the state by 5.6%. Is that laughably wrong to you?

The Hobby School’s November 2022 midterm election polling was also highly accurate, finding that the Harris County judge’s race was too close to call, mirroring the final result in which incumbent Lina Hidalgo beat challenger Alexandra Del Moral Mealer by less than 16,000 votes. It found incumbent Gov. Greg Abbott held a 13-point edge over Beto O’Rourke. Abbott ultimately beat O’Rourke by 11 points, well within the poll’s margin of error. Does that sound like pundits asking leading questions?

> There are also audiences that are polled. If pundits are paid to direct people to the poll, the poll will be directed by those audiences. The HMS “Boaty McBoatface” can attest to this.

They go through painstaking efforts to ensure the sample surveyed closely matches the traits of those whose attitudes you are trying to capture, including age, gender, race, ethnicity and partisan affiliation.

This school isn’t posting simple polls on Fox News or Instagram and just straight posting the results. They are applying math and science to their techniques to deliver accurate and credible results. Not all polls are created equal.

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TbonerT t1_j8ub5hh wrote

Mathematically, it totally does. You can plug the numbers in to a sample size calculator yourself and see that it works. Or you can argue that pollsters around the world are wrong to declare the Hobby School of Public Affairs one of the top pollsters. These people know what they are doing and recognized for doing it extremely well.

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TbonerT t1_j8u9s69 wrote

> The survey was fielded between January 9 and January 19, 2023, in English and Spanish, with 1,200 YouGov respondents, resulting in a confidence interval of +/-2.8%. The respondents were matched to a sampling frame on gender, age, race/ethnicity, and education and are representative of the population of Texas adults.

It is mathematically and scientifically sound.

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