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shillyshally t1_j1kn2o3 wrote

The entire context is that it is really cold. Usage is high.

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blowjob215 t1_j1konr2 wrote

"We do have some strain on the system," PJM spokeswoman Susan Buehler told NBC10. "We're seeing increased demand because of the frigid temperatures, but we are also seeing power plants -- that we are calling on -- having difficulty managing and turning the systems on because the temperatures are so cold."

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nderhjs t1_j1kv4zi wrote

It’s been this cold before, is there something about it this time? Was it because they usually need to prepare and didn’t because this came on so fast?

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Brraaap t1_j1l040c wrote

Probably has to do with the amount of the nation in unseasonably cold temperatures. Everyone's cold, so there's no excess production available to the grid

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jamin_g t1_j1l4cfp wrote

In the recent past, more and more people have shifted from combustion to electrical heat.

Heat pumps get less and less efficient as temps drop and require more and more electric.

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Dismal-Ideal1672 t1_j1lqec8 wrote

This, but also how widespread the geography is. PJM is the interconnect for most of the Eastern seaboard. This let's them balance load across regions, but if we're all using more than usual, there's only so much supply that can be spun up on demand. That extra electricity will be gas generators usually, with a limited amount of continuous supply (and high cost).

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eaglewatch1945 t1_j1o38wb wrote

I never thought I'd say this, but "thank you, oil furnace."

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TheBSQ t1_j1ls02d wrote

In warmer climates, electric heating has always been common, and usually very inefficient forms, like electric baseboards.

What your saying is all true and it’s probably a factor, but I’d bet it has more to do with the fact that the cold really widespread and so there’s a lot of “warm” places using electric baseboard heating (and space heaters) than it is an uptick in housing using heat pumps.

And there’s also a bit of a mix where some heat pump systems have resistance heat backup systems for when it gets really cold.

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Triplsticks t1_j1qtljr wrote

Heat pumps are around twice as efficient as other conventional electric heat systems, even at these temperatures. Definitely not the issue.

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jamin_g t1_j1ra29k wrote

Yeah so, in most situations, at least that I encounter, the replacement when we are adding a heat pump is usually replacing an oil or gas system, or a previously uncontrolled space.

If you find a heat pump that uses less electric than an oil furnace, I don't know, I'll streak across Link at the two minute warning.

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Genkiotoko t1_j1l8u16 wrote

I'd guess you're essentially right. Utilities likely didn't buy nearly enough generation on the futures market, causing a lot of last- minute purchasing for more generation. Power plants take time to heat up, especially in brutally cold temps.

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gwhh t1_j1n39r9 wrote

Drop 35 degrees in a few hours. That very usually.

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FordMaverickFan t1_j1ocmhz wrote

There has been a growing trend of people dumping natural gas appliances and an increase of electric car sales.

Texas gets all of the media coverage but the grid in the northeast is the oldest in the country so we're in for a rough couple of years.

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Past_Cartographer230 t1_j1kq10w wrote

Our entire countries grid is in dire need of an upgrade. With more people driving electric cars it is only going to get worse.

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NoREEEEEEtilBrooklyn t1_j1kr08r wrote

Need to start building Nuclear, moving all above ground wires underground, and upgrading utility infrastructure asap.

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Is_that_your_wow- t1_j1kuz7q wrote

Here's an idea. Why not put gears like a grandfather clock inside skyscrapers. Have the lobby gym wind it up, or hire people. Let it drop and crank energy all day.

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Cloaked42m t1_j1lris4 wrote

I actually find the idea of human hamster wheels amusing. But it doesn't generate that much energy.

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MajorNoodles t1_j1m4pok wrote

There's an episode of Black Mirror that you would love.

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rushrhees t1_j1m2nrn wrote

I know that and Soylent green would theoretically solve a lot of issues but margins and logistics I guess

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NoREEEEEEtilBrooklyn t1_j1kvh0c wrote

I’m down for that. Pay the homeless in food to power society. Win win.

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clickstops t1_j1ky53y wrote

Pay our most marginalized citizens in soup kitchen allowance to be human hamsters on the energy wheel?

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largeroastbeef t1_j1l8cxn wrote

It kinda sounds like the beginning of the matrix where the robots make people their energy source

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NoREEEEEEtilBrooklyn t1_j1l2fhu wrote

Not soup kitchen allowance. Really good food. And they’re free to leave whenever. Completely voluntary.

Also, in case people can’t tell, I’m joking. We should just have nuclear energy plants with supplemental solar/wind. Human hamsters would be too weird.

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Is_that_your_wow- t1_j1kvtox wrote

Gravity powered LED lights already are replacing oil lamps in places that use them. I'm just surprised no ones designed this along an elevator shaft.

Hiring homeless in food sounds like a good idea, but not sure if that's the best incentive or most productive workforce. Philly doesn't have absolute poverty. No one is starving to death, and the homeless mostly are addicts or mentally ill. Although paying people money usually works well, even for our poorer Philadelphian friends.

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Frummage t1_j1mqfdv wrote

Most homeless in Philly are families with children, and most are not on the street but in shelters or moving from temporary accommodation to temporary accommodation. The visibly homeless are a minority.

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owenhinton98 t1_j1mxn8f wrote

A good chunk (pretty sure it’s a majority) of “visible homeless” aren’t even homeless at all, just looking to score…you can tell because the ones that ask for change to “get a bite to eat” will decline food offerings and clearly only wanna score

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Past_Cartographer230 t1_j1m2fnk wrote

The fact that our city still has tons of above ground electrical wires baffles me.

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youlleatitandlikeit t1_j1m7mhj wrote

Yes it reduces the amount of potential damage from storms but the added complexity in repairing and installing new lines might balance out in terms of loss of service

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JDowling88 t1_j1mno2i wrote

Especially in CA, the utilities are ramping up fire hardening (going ug when they can, replacing wood poles with metal where they can't) and, especially in Southern CA, have been doing this for years. PGE is well behind, and they've paid dearly for it.

But even in places that don't see widespread outages from weather, electric lines should be underground. This protects from local outages; and while initial costs are high, long-term cost is a fraction of the overall cost of replacing above-grade lines when things go bad.

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lordredsnake t1_j1l2jsw wrote

Electric cars are still a tiny share of the demand. On the other hand, more buildings are switching to heat pumps or being built with heat pumps from the get go. They're very efficient, but it's still electrical demand that wasn't there before. The price of natural gas is going up (and will continue to as we liquify and export it, which is accelerating that trend toward electric.

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nderhjs t1_j1kv6h9 wrote

Someone make those crystals from Glass Onion

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stonkautist69 t1_j1o4qkd wrote

Ah yes it does. Which components need replacement? You seem to be an expert

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sexy_wash_bucket t1_j1kv38x wrote

Oh baby I got this. Energy lawyer here. This is caused by two different situations.

First is capacity issues. PJM electricity is sold on the “day-ahead” market, meaning that one day in advance, providers “bid” on prices for dispatch, and each bidder is dispatched in reverse order from least expensive to most expensive. But if the day-ahead market bids can’t accommodate the needed estimated capacity, PJM knows there could be outages.

The second issue is the actual transmission lines. Transmission lines have a “thermal constraint”: a maximum amount of power that can flow through without the current going haywire and electrocuting squirrels. On busy electricity days, more and more electricity demand through those lines gets them very close to their thermal limits, so utilities have to cut back or risk frying their lines. In a big city like Philly, constraints can be met much faster.

But (you say), shouldn’t they have backstops in place to prevent these issues? This seems foreseeable, no? Oh yeah. When one or both of these issues presents itself, PJM has to resort to “demand response” tactics: ways to change demand so it can be closer to actual supply. The most common demand response strategy is interrupted service. The gist there is that your contract with the utility allows the utility to shut off your power for a pre-allotted amount of time and rebate you for the time without power. Another is rolling blackouts, which will certainly not be employed in this situation because I wouldn’t think people want their homes to be 30 degrees with no warning. If interrupted service users can’t even account for the overblown demand, PJM’s got big problems.

This text shows just how much energy is pumping through our grid right now (and how worried PJM is about outages and blackouts).

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farmstink t1_j1ly5mt wrote

Thank you for sharing this insight, sexy_wash_bucket

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tardisintheparty t1_j1m1cme wrote

I just took my energy law final three days ago. This is triggering lol one of my short answers was about the day-ahead market and the other was about transmission constraints and demand response!

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YogiNurse t1_j1nogj2 wrote

Energy law seems so….specific

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tardisintheparty t1_j1q8az7 wrote

Very, VERY specific. super niche. took it cause i heard it was an easy A (it was not lol)

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fergy80 t1_j1lbgo5 wrote

For the first issue, couldn't they have seen this coming and purchased more power? If I'm understanding correctly, it seems like they screwed up even though they knew the storm was coming. And now they're asking us to make sacrifices for their lack of planning.

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sexy_wash_bucket t1_j1lbnui wrote

Sort of. The day-ahead market is heavily regulated on a federal level by FEEC, so every provider is required to bid in the market for all of their capacity. PJM can’t do anything to increase bids besides wait for a new plant to be built. But they can anticipate when bids won’t cover projected capacity demand.

Although (into the nitty gritty here), there’s also smaller scale one-state plants that actually fall outside of FERC jurisdiction that can add to capacity, but PJM has less control over them and PJM also factors them into capacity projections.

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funkyted t1_j1lmj0w wrote

PJM has the most robust capacity market in the country. It’s concerning for the future that this weekend is a problem.

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felldestroyed t1_j1lzzbi wrote

So the press release this morning was citing the power plants (which I assume are natural gas) not being able to run. How would this factor into what you're saying? Is it something like what happened in Texas with natural gas plants not be winterized enough to take days of negative temps?

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sexy_wash_bucket t1_j1md45k wrote

Yup. Power plants can run into a lot of issues when it’s too cold. PJM’s are much more resilient than Texas’s, but that is a very low bar. If NG plants aren’t running, electricity needs to be dispatched instead for heating purposes instead of NG. That adds to capacity needs, which makes it even harder for PJM to meet demand.

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fritolazee t1_j1mnk24 wrote

Thanks for dropping knowledge! What does an energy lawyer do on a daily basis?

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flyingasshat t1_j1ngl5d wrote

That a 1000 MW generating station in NJ went offline

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AbsentEmpire t1_j1ma51i wrote

Well considering how cold it is outside I'm sure the thermal line limit isn't the issue.

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sexy_wash_bucket t1_j1me0xh wrote

Colder ambient temperatures increase resistance in transmission lines, so it has somewhat of an equalizing effect.

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blodreina_kumWonkru t1_j1mi4ib wrote

This is super interesting but weird. I get the 2nd issue, but I can't wrap my head around the 1st. Why do providers bid on electricity? We really treat power the same way do anything else that's bought/sold/re-sold? I feel silly asking this question, but for some reason that just seems bonkers to me that this would be the case to the point where providers could "run out" of energy to provide to people.

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sexy_wash_bucket t1_j1mmgru wrote

Lots of boring judicial history there but the main gist is that we (the U.S.) created RTOs (like PJM) to ensure that every bit of electricity in a region was being managed by one overall regulator to maximize synergies. Every provider is required to bid (basically) 100% of their capacity on the day-ahead market, every day. If we didn’t force energy bids like this, providers could e.g. withhold energy until peak demand times to maximize profits, essentially giving an F U to people at non peak times and leaving them susceptible to blackouts. The bidding system is just the method that FERC employs to find a fair price to pay providers despite there being so many - but in reality, it’s just the chosen strategy to ensure all electricity being produced enters the market.

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JennItalia269 t1_j1kow1m wrote

Generating stations are also having trouble due to the weather which is compounding the problems.

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blowjob215 t1_j1kqb8s wrote

This is what it is: the draw on power for Christmas lights isn’t anything unusual—the frigid temperatures are what’s throwing PJM and the power companies for a loop.

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LakeSun t1_j1n2ku0 wrote

I like totally no status update, and no Thank You message either.

Just do it and forget about it.

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jdmoney85 t1_j1kqv9u wrote

I'm running everything on the highest possible power. I want to test the grid

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hybridhawx t1_j1ktj62 wrote

I am somewhat a performance test engineer too.

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cavefishes t1_j1kmj2q wrote

https://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/weather/stories-weather/pjm-power-strain-cold/3458797/?amp=1

It's very cold in the 13 states operated and managed by PJM

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Unlucky-External5648 OP t1_j1kncx9 wrote

Hahah laughs in christmas lights no one will take down. Fucking christians have completely forgotten what christ taught.

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NoREEEEEEtilBrooklyn t1_j1kqshd wrote

You mean shitty little LEDs that use almost no electricity? More like electric heaters, space heaters, the fact that people are cooped up inside and aren’t chilling outside at all because it’s colder than heck.

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Trafficsigntruther t1_j1kwfnq wrote

Hey those 25 watts are 0.000025 megawatts. If the city turned off their Christmas lights an hour early, they could cave 5 megawatt hours.

(I’m not even sure I did that math right-post is sarcastic)

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12kdaysinthefire t1_j1knsbx wrote

Less to do with draw produced by Christmas decorations and everything to do with electrical heating in homes.

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fzammetti t1_j1kvhzt wrote

Yeah, damn right! I remember Paul's third letter to the Corinthians:

"And for whomever haveth electric heat, thou shalt turn thy thermostat down to 64. And lo, there will be much sheltering beneath blankets, loved ones bundled on couches... and though the Eagles may endure God's chilling winds, thou shalt be warned by the glow of big-screen TV's."

Or something like that.

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tomyownrhythm t1_j1kuvkn wrote

Well, Peco, my furnace stopped so space heaters it is. As long as you can power them!

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[deleted] t1_j1krl9o wrote

[deleted]

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PCPenhale t1_j1ksrdz wrote

My guess would be that it’s weather that has effected multiple states simultaneously, served by this PJM, thereby taxing its infrastructure.

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minesweeperer222 t1_j1kuw23 wrote

Probably also the holiday season. We don't usually go this low, with winds this bad, in so many places simultaneously while powering everyone's outdoor holiday light display.

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PCPenhale t1_j1kvf70 wrote

Also plausible. Granted, LED displays don’t use nearly the resources that incandescent use, but they still use a percentage of power. It all adds up.

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minesweeperer222 t1_j1kw7ij wrote

Agree on all points. My unscientific observation is that there a lot more domestic "light shows" this year than in those past. I've seen at least 3 houses in my normal travels with full light displays synced to a radio station. This is up from my usual sighting of 0. That's more along the lines of what I was thinking.

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Booplympics t1_j1l0w7b wrote

But lights in general are a fraction of the amount of power that heat uses.

Complaining about Christmas lights makes as much sense about complaining about cooking a Christmas roast in an electric oven.

The fact of the matter is that our electrical grid needs to be modernized. Everything else is just utter bullshit.

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Break-88 t1_j1l0jh8 wrote

The electricity usage is too damn high

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amal-ady t1_j1l5qdi wrote

Did PECO only send these messages out just tonight (12/24)? Because PJM was asking for this since the morning.

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Mommy-Q t1_j1mt9rr wrote

PSEG send the text out late afternoon too. At which point we realized that the entirety of South Jersey jacked up our heat in case the power shut off later

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BearPhilly t1_j1maesz wrote

Maybe they should stop closing the nuclear power plants.

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Excellent_Insect_270 t1_j1l67xx wrote

Ok, this is probably a dumb question. But what can we do to reduce our electricity? Like more than just turning off lights, unplugging appliances etc?

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Unlucky-External5648 OP t1_j1lhu7g wrote

Most efficient way to heat the body is with clothes so lots of sweaters and socks in the house instead of raising thermostat.

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notFanning t1_j1l4hfe wrote

For added context, it’s not just PECO. I’ve got an apartment in York, and First Energy (big corp that owns MetEd and a bunch of other power companies) sent us a similar email this morning

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Marbleman60 t1_j1l5sh4 wrote

First Energy is supplied by PJM. They emailed me today about it today specifically mentioning PJM and I'm in York county.

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notFanning t1_j1l5vsq wrote

Oh yep you’re right, I’d only skimmed the email tbh

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nalgene_wilder t1_j1matiy wrote

The context is our nationwide neglect of critical infrastructure

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ten-million t1_j1lvwqw wrote

Prices for natural gas on the spot market have quadrupled this weekend. Given that a lot of our electricity is generated by natural gas it costs the electricity makers a lot more to generate. Electric prices are regulated, Gas prices are not. Generators are losing money for every kilowatt you use. "Please conserve"

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Unlucky-External5648 OP t1_j1lvzy2 wrote

Where’s that trash to steam power we all love?

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jjc157 t1_j1lx0lp wrote

It is part of the overall grid. Trash to steam (waste to energy) plants are not nearly as large as the major gas/nuclear/coal plants but they do play a part feeding the grid while reducing landfills

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Unlucky-External5648 OP t1_j1ly8dk wrote

Yeah the one in conshohocken next to home depot is my favorite.

We generate too much trash. There should be compost piles every block. People should not buy products that contain single use packaging. We need to stop shipping water products via combustion engines. Need to blow up Nestle and the other 10 trash makers….

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jjc157 t1_j1m2ykw wrote

Yep. Everything is disposable these days.

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jbug624 t1_j1mlfd4 wrote

So this wasn’t a spam/scam text?

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PurpleAstronomerr t1_j1mqka4 wrote

I went through the Texas freeze so when I got this text it made me really nervous. I’m so glad we didn’t lose power last night. 😬

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carolineecouture t1_j1kqr47 wrote

I didn't get this. When was it sent out? I get other texts from PECO so they have my contact info.

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minionoperation t1_j1ly6n2 wrote

We didn’t get any texts either. My heat is at 62 though so maybe there isn’t much that can be turned down at my house.

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Bonobo555 t1_j1l7jq3 wrote

I got one at 9:15 PM out here in the western burbs.

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Scatheli t1_j1kzdu6 wrote

I am the one with the PECO account but my husband got the message and I didn’t. They have both of our numbers lol.

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[deleted] t1_j1ljrx0 wrote

[deleted]

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PurpleAstronomerr t1_j1mquls wrote

I’m surprised they’re having so much trouble. I know demand for electric has been high due to the weather, but it’s cold here for 3-4 months out of the year. Makes me nervous about the future.

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puddin__ t1_j1lrksw wrote

Weird, I didn’t get that text

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Mysterious_Bobcat483 t1_j1mu1bd wrote

Better than rolling blackouts. Friends in the south were experiencing that.

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Glystopher t1_j1n019g wrote

Haha, I was sleeping during that time period, didn’t see the text in time, sigh, oh well

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nolandeluca t1_j1mn7no wrote

Yeah, the rich people still heating their massive homes, they can conserve first. 🤣

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galletadeacido t1_j1n6ad4 wrote

Eh just as well I got out of town for Xmas. That should help the grid a bit 😂

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nolandeluca t1_j1nkqya wrote

Honestly if they power down 601 north broad, we won't have internet but it will release megawatts back into the grid

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Outofmilkthrowaway t1_j1nxy5d wrote

It's funny, my mother in law got this text, but I didn't. We both live in Norristown. We have an oil furnace anyway so electric usage is minimal. I think its like sub-1000 watts when heating?

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Wide_Riot t1_j1mdqpx wrote

And y'all want only heat pumps and electric cars

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invisible___hand t1_j1l23pb wrote

PJM is run by Texans

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TheAdamist t1_j1loob7 wrote

Fun fact, Texas has its own electric grid that doesn't interconnect with anyone else.

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1Surlygirl t1_j1m99ci wrote

Not very fun fact: people died because Texas' grid and its operators are inadequate.

Edit: Not very fun fact.

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Farzy78 t1_j1lsnsg wrote

But yeah let's all switch to electric cars and electric heat pumps, no need to upgrade the grid we'll just tell people to conserve 🙄

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Unlucky-External5648 OP t1_j1lunzu wrote

Any talk of infrastructure upgrades that isn’t rail/trains is oligarchal capitalism speak.

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AbsentEmpire t1_j1mal6m wrote

No it's just the totally naive belief that we can power an industrial society off microgrids, solar, wind, fairy dust and good vibes.

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murphysfriend t1_j1ndeow wrote

Hydrogen fuel cell are so very sustainable! They won’t be able to make any money! All the people in petroleum, and propane, and gas don’t want too lose their wealth 🙁 Yeah current infrastructure can’t handle the load.

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Unlucky-External5648 OP t1_j1ndtky wrote

the Algonquin long house communal living model would be ideal for this weather. All we would need is trees and biomass if we could live together.

Edit; Iroquois more accurate.

1