Comments

You must log in or register to comment.

its_coo_baby t1_israjv7 wrote

Like day-of-the-week predictions or like lottery numbers?

27

[deleted] t1_israyxd wrote

The Sun. Lovely. And the link to the paper doesn't work, and looks like a pc shortcut pasted in.

79

Stephen_P_Smith OP t1_isrb098 wrote

Submission statement: I find the claim that AI can predict the future with 99% accuracy to be overly sensational, and in need of statistical benchmarking! But that is just my singular opinion, and I am wondering how other more sophisticated thinkers might react. Hence, this article was shared here. Cheers!

1

NinjaLanternShark t1_isrd66p wrote

tl;dr:

> researchers at the Max Planck Institute for the Science of Light in Germany asked the artificially intelligent software to predict how AI progressed.

> They did this by feeding the AI information from academic papers dating all the way back to 1994. [..] The AI was then asked to make predictions about how artificial intelligence has developed over the years based on the scientific studies it knew about it.

So given some body of research, forecast the future arc of developments in that field.

Achieving 99% accuracy is just a matter of framing the questions right.

406

nasanu t1_isrdy1u wrote

Replying to NinjaLanternShark (#129,712)

>Achieving 99% accuracy is just a matter of framing the questions right.

Or in other words ask a bunch of crap, discard all the incorrect answers, then hold up the rest as proof of how accurate you are.

18

FuturologyBot t1_isre4ar wrote

The following submission statement was provided by /u/Stephen_P_Smith:

Submission statement: I find the claim that AI can predict the future with 99% accuracy to be overly sensational, and in need of statistical benchmarking! But that is just my singular opinion, and I am wondering how other more sophisticated thinkers might react. Hence, this article was shared here. Cheers!

Please reply to OP's comment here: https://old.reddit.com/r/Futurology/comments/y6ut1m/spooky_artificial_intelligence_found_to/isrb098/

1

DatStankBooty t1_isrespb wrote

Really curious about my next bowel movement after chipotle.

7

NinjaLanternShark t1_isrex37 wrote

Replying to nasanu (#129,752)

The concept of tuning your forecast to a desired accuracy is actually pretty interesting. For example, say you need a weather forecast that's 99% accurate. A meteorologist will then tell you how far into the future you can go. In this case it might be 10 or 15 minutes. It might sound silly to us but there's probably a use case for it.

I don't imagine the folks at the Max Planck institute are slouches, so I'm assuming there's a use case for scanning some literature and determining some outcome with 99% accuracy. It's probably not a very profound prediction, but again, it wouldn't surprise me if there's a perfectly reasonable use case.

13

ltethe t1_isrg5th wrote

I can predict the future too. Ask me what time it will be any time from now.

76

ChronoPsyche t1_isrggbi wrote

Replying to Stephen_P_Smith (#129,600)

No need for more sophisticated readers here. It's usually always safe to assume the Sun is a sensationalist pile of trash. Next time, see if you can find a more credible source reporting it first and then post it. If not, just leave it be. A lot of Redditors only look at the headline and will be misinformed by this.

4

zeptillian t1_isrgzu1 wrote

I can't download a PDF from your fucking desktop Charlotte.

I'm just going to have to assume you are as bad at interpreting studies are you are at using hyperlinks.

11

Monster-Zero t1_isrhswm wrote

Replying to [deleted] (#129,596)

That is exactly what happened. Now I know that Charlotte is running a Windows computer and that she downloaded a file from… somewhere. Presumably about something.

Quality reporting.

11

GloriaVictis101 t1_isrj3w5 wrote

This article somehow has more ads than words in it. Bravo ‘The Sun’

1

Cr4mwell t1_isrj67a wrote

I wish people like this would get fined for false advertising. Clickbait titles like this one mislead and confuse the public which is the last thing this society needs.

45

meetmyfriendme t1_isrki0g wrote

Probably not surprising as it would have included our biases to some degree. I wonder if it could then be asked to predict something outside of that in order to direct scientists to a novel research direction.

1

Shibbystix t1_isrkjsq wrote

Let me lay it out for you.

Ahem......We as a species.......

Are stupid and easy to predict.

1

pina_koala t1_isrkm7q wrote

This is probably the trashiest, lamest Sun article I've ever come across and that's saying a LOT

8

lothar74 t1_isrl3cu wrote

I predict that in the future, news websites that want to be properly respected will not use hyphens in their domain names.

1

g_man_89 t1_isrlhse wrote

Holy crap this is so cool and scary at the same time. If given the right information we can get a sneak peak into where it is heading

1

xauching t1_isrnm1g wrote

If History classes have taught me anything its not predicting the future that's the hard part.

its making people learn from it.

1

xeonicus t1_isrnrqw wrote

Just don't feed the AI access to social media. It'll get less reliable.

1

MadMcCabe t1_isrob8a wrote

So it made logical predictions about ai us research predictions about ai and was able to "predict" things that have already happened?

1

UNODIR t1_isrp5mh wrote

Replying to NinjaLanternShark (#129,712)

Future can not be predicted because it is not determined. You can foresight (not forecast) different futures.

So whatever this is - it reminds me of the kraken that predicted football games. You can believe it if you want.

1

Turd-In-Your-Pocket t1_isrq80v wrote

From the article: Fortunately, the AI didn't predict a deadly apocalypse or a robot takeover.

That’s exactly what an apocalyptic murderous AI would say.

6

passingconcierge t1_isrqmly wrote

All this article tells you is that it is possible to frame a question that you know the answer to and then to have a statistical system extract the answer you first thought of from a data set. That is more a caution about the problems of taking AI systems uncritically at face value and perhaps the need for double blinding in predictive systems.

1

zamalek33 t1_isrrl7w wrote

If there is anything AI can certainly not do then it is predicting the future. Complete nonsense But AI can predict single human behaviour and that makes it 10 times more powerful.

1

GregTheMad t1_isrt3lj wrote

Replying to ashakar (#130,440)

How many? 8 billion? That's not much when it comes to computing. Most of them probably can even be grouped together. Depending on what you ask maybe only a handful is needed, like world leaders. The only challenge is getting the model right, and feeding it good data.

5

dkangx t1_isrtv9s wrote

This is The Sun. Never been to a grocery store checkstand?

1

theminglepringle t1_isrukcr wrote

Replying to icefire555 (#130,032)

That’s easy you just have to have enough money own a lot of shares in a company sell them all watch as the price plummet’s because everyone one else who own shares in it get scared then buy back your shares or more for a lower price rinse and repeat

1

ZedTT t1_isrv445 wrote

Replying to Rodentsnipe (#130,028)

Holy shit that's hilarious.

I'm no longer mad about how stupid the title of the article is I'm just glad I've been given this absolute piece of gold.

1

gtwizzy8 t1_isrv7dv wrote

TL:DR Yo dawg, we heard you like AI. So we put some AI in your AI so you could AI while you AI

4

smokecat20 t1_isryiae wrote

Can it predict the lottery numbers? I need to win before the collapse.

1

bigboyeTim t1_isrylfr wrote

"ARTIFICIAL intelligence was asked to predict the future and was right over 9 per cent of the time, according to new research."

1

stargazer1Q84 t1_isryzze wrote

That's a terrible headline and I'm disappointed in this sub for giving it exposure.

2

OliverSparrow t1_ist33so wrote

To quote the famous remark: "If you're so smart, how come you ain't rich?" If thisd fatuous headlien was even vaguely correct, the owners of this device would be cackling al the way to the bank. Instead, they write feeble press releases.

1