I think if you look at the average prediction of all experts, it will be somewhere in 2050. Their predictions are our best bet. 2023-2029 is just not gonna happen.

Don’t be so sure. Check:

• John Carmack,
• Greg Brockman
• Sam Altman

‘s opinions on this. And these people are not only experts, but they’re on the front lines.

I think you'd get more interesting answers if you split 2023-2029 into two or three options

None of them have given an exact date other than "soon." Doesn't mean by 2029, however, and they aren't the only leading experts in an entire field of AI research.

I'd like to say between 2025 and 2035.

I wouldn't even consider Carmack and Altman leading experts in the field of AI. The real experts are the researchers authoring papers.

A decade ago most experts were saying it would take “hundreds of years” and recently changed it to “a few years or decades”

Experts need to be cautious when making predictions so they don’t jeopardize their careers.

Agree, but I do think that building some of the most disruptive and powerful AI today gives them SOME authority

2 of the 3 have said within a decade

I don't remember most experts ever saying "hundreds of years". Do you have a source?

Source?

Most certainly well before 2030. And I say this as someone who thinks AGI requires paradigm shifts. I already see signs of the sheer economic and intellectual force behind AI now digging into actions that likely lead to paradigm shifts. There is pressure and incentive to lower compute, apply the newest techniques across countless domains, innovate hardware, explore embodiment, etc.

This year we'll already get what I call pseudo-AGI. LLM-based Narrow AI that is general enough to be phenomenally useful when coupled with handy APIs and other modern techniques in AI.

This sub is completely delusional as to the realistic likelihood of the near-term onset of a singularity.

23-25

26-29

If Carmack says something I'll believe it. He basically invented modern PC gaming by himself.

Even if it doesn’t happen by the end of the 2020s, the world will still be a completely different place than it is now, just based on the technologies that are already being commercialized now and in the near future.

What is the geometric mean of those results?

It depends if it's even possible with the current form of neural networks. If it's not possible then it's probably going to take some time since most research is on neural networks, while different algorithms or hybrids would be needed. There are two camps, those who think neural networks can generalize with sufficient amount of data, and those who think they're just advanced polynomial curve fitting algorithms that will never be able to truly generalize (or at least not sufficiently enough) and are mostly just doing naive interpolation. Here's an example of a guy taking the "they don't generalize" to its full extent: https://nikhilroxtomar.medium.com/why-deep-learning-is-not-artificial-general-intelligence-agi-e9667d147134

No fire alarm.

I think within 10 years we'll have something that at least makes us ask the question 🤔 "Is it conscious?" It might not be full AGI but proto-intelligence, about 80% there but not quite fully realized.

You should add a “check the results” option so people don’t click on a random date

I think that Deep Learning is a bubble that will burst in five years. The space of possible combinations of parameter values in neural networks blows up exponentially. Humans learn on the fly. We sort of make our own rules. We learn from experience. Neural networks can only associate words or the equivalent in images. They don't actually know what words or images mean. They are blind and deaf strangers in a strange land.

Carmack on AGI, from the Lex Friedman podcast.

i said a
couple years ago is a 50 chance that
somewhere there will be signs of life of
agi in 2030 and i've probably increased
that slightly i may be at 55 60 now
because i do think there's a little
sense of acceleration there

Going from 1990 where home computers were barely emerging in the world to 20 years later where smartphones were just emerging, if we compress this 20 year span into 10 due to exponential growth, then I think 10 years from 2020 we will see a similar leap, so around 2030

by 2030 but they won't call it agi since we won't get an ai controlling a robot body making coffee for people like in the coffee test and it will be so good it won't be able to pass the turing test without dumbing itself down.

Yeah but useful transformative AI is guaranteed.

We already have signs that AI can write software.

That seems like an exceptionally broad definition of “pseudo-AGI” that by most people’s definitions of “phenomenally useful”, already exists and has for some time. ChatGPT is already phenomenally useful in daily life as it is.

I’d be curious if there’s a poll of AI experts somewhere about this specific topic so I can know if the majority of experts agree or disagree with this opinion.

> Neural networks can only associate words or the equivalent in images. They don't actually know what words or images mean.

Well this begs the question of what it means to “actually know what words or images mean”.

I would posit that we don’t actually know that we are any more advanced than this.

You see an image of a computer and you know what the computer is and what it means. But that’s because your brain matches the image of the computer to computers you’ve already used and your experiences with those computers. What is different about neural networks?

This is like the drake meme. Average prediction of experts? No. Three cherry picked examples? Yes.

They certainly cannot provide a valid source for that.

In 2013 most experts were saying “hundreds of years”?? We need a fuckin source on that one bro

Given that you already ignored one request for a source I’m guessing you’ll ignor this one too?

It really depends on what people define AGI as. Most of Kurzweils predictions are somewhat true but make you say... "well that's not exactly what I had in mind but technically you could argue he was correct."

Bro, I am an OG armchair futurist from back in the original KurzweilAI forum days, we saw tons of articles from physicists, scientists, engineers, programmers, philosophers, and other experts. I don’t have the time to research that stuff, as I am focusing on researching how to survive, and live a prosperous life in the coming age of AGI.

If you go that far back in the AI world you are certainly aware of selection bias, recall bias and response bias, all of which influence what you just said. So it’s not that the “majority” of experts said it would take hundreds of years.. It’s the majority of experts peopel felt like talking about on a forum you were a part of, that you happen to remember, and that people happened to respond to.

r/singularity is delusional??? I thought this was the cutting edge of scientific knowledge and rational thinking populated by all of the world's leading AI researchers. It's the rest of the world that is delusional. Most people still suffer under the delusion that having kids, making investments, learning, falling in love, and enjoying their life has any meaning or value.

Much better idea to just get by day to day until the benevolent AGI overlord comes and solves every one of our problems, gives us UBI, uploads you into the mainframe, and lets you fuck as many androids as you want and travel across the galaxy for all eternity.

/s

At this point we're looking like we're getting really close. Easily can happen in the 2030s. Sooner maybe, but it wouldn't be labeled as a AGI by the mainstream.

I am a people and I don't love these polls. However, this one did generate a query within me that I am willing to externalize and listen to the thoughts of others.

I am not currently a programmer nor have I done any actual programming in a couple or three decades. I am not in an industry that stands to benefit or suffer from AGI's realization. I do pay attention to tech and science trends but only as a casual observer.

So why should anyone care what timeframe I believe is the right one for the onset of actual AGI? Is there an action that will be taken should we reach consensus? What will change if the poll goes all one way or the other?

If it makes you feel better I will leave the sub if no AGI before 2030.

26-29 for me.

Yeehaw let's go baby I want hot android wives

I'm off the opinion AGI arrives late 2020s - 2030s

I don't think we will have to discover/invent something radically different to get to AGI. It's most likely going to come from things like;

• massive scaling (10s of trillions of parameters, 1000x more data than today's top model )
• making them more multimodal (can work with and understand audio, video, images, text, interact with software, control hardware parts etc.)
• improving Neural Network technology (improving AI's step by step reasoning, faster learning and shorter training times, improving memory etc.)
• optimising hardware (ASICCs for AI, neuromorphic computing etc)

Basically, exponentially scaling AI will lead to AGI within a decade. Scaling is the "missing piece".

You forgot the most important part. "I Think". Just because he thinks doesn't mean he is right. I think =/= is true